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Independent Forecasts Using STOPS

Independent Forecasts Using STOPS. May 31, 2013. Agenda. Introduction Overview of STOPS STOPS installation and Seattle application Lunch More STOPS Next steps. Introduction. Purposes Contracting Non-disclosure Conflicts of interest Schedule Communications. Purposes.

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Independent Forecasts Using STOPS

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  1. Independent Forecasts Using STOPS May 31, 2013

  2. Agenda • Introduction • Overview of STOPS • STOPS installation and Seattle application • Lunch • More STOPS • Next steps

  3. Introduction • Purposes • Contracting • Non-disclosure • Conflicts of interest • Schedule • Communications

  4. Purposes • Independent forecasts for FTA use in evaluating ridership forecasts provided by project sponsors at decision milestones • Also: • Beta-testing of STOPS • Hand-off of STOPS to agencies and consultants for their use in preparing project forecasts – either as the primary forecasts or as 2nd-opinion checks on local methods

  5. Contracting • Oversight funds • Task assignment (issued 5/29) to define the work • Work assignment to initiate the work for each project • Resources • Estimates that reflect mutual (FTA/contractor) expectations • Updated (+ and – ) as the work encounters different realities

  6. Contracting • Products • Forecasts • STOPS project directory (both inputs and outputs) • Memorandum 1 on the forecasts (template coming) • Materials for presentation to the sponsor • Memorandum 2 on STOPS feedback • Assignment strategy • One project at bat, the next on deck • Better hitters play more often

  7. Non-disclosure of beta-test results • Contractors and volunteers are now team members. • Beta-testing may well lead to updates (model, software, interface, users’ guide, others?). • So current findings are for internal purposes only. • No loose lips that might threaten to sink this ship.

  8. Conflicts of interest • Contractors producing independent forecasts • Cannot be involved in primary project forecasting • Cannot have developed the underlying model • Other involvement with client/project may be OK • Must be disclosed • Determination by FTA

  9. Schedule for the 2013 seasonSometimes you win; sometimes you lose; and sometimes it rains. • Spring training: June • Forecasts for initial set of straightforward projects • Feedback on STOPS  STOPS update? • Opening days: July • Forecasts for projects seeking FTA decisions • Focus almost entirely on the projects • Dog days of summer: August and thereafter • Forecasts for the remaining projects • Focuses • Projects: eventual QC by sponsor and FTA • STOPS: hand-offs, broadened experience, wider feedback

  10. Overview of stops • Model structure • Calibration(s) • Concepts and terminology • Suggested application approach • Input data • Resource requirements

  11. Overview of STOPS • Model structure • Modified 4-step model • Not “sketch planning” • Nationally calibrated; local adjustments • National: against ridership on 24 FG systems • Local transit: against total transit ridership • Local fixed-guideway: against station counts

  12. Preparation of forecasts with STOPS Notes: -- Demographics, travel flows, and travel times are zone-to-zone -- Networks and loaded volumes are link-based -- “Adaptations” include translation to the year of the forecast plus: -- Conversion of worker flows to Home-Based-Work trip flows -- Scaling of HBW flows to represent Home-Based-Other flows -- Development of Non-Home-Based flows from HB transit trip ends

  13. Calibration results These results reflect the national calibration and the individual local calibrations against total transit ridership.

  14. Concepts and terminology • “Years” • 2000 CTPP • Current year • Local STOPS calibration steps (currently “base” in STOPS) • “Current year” requirement for FTA submittals • Opening year (for B&A studies, perhaps local QC) • Horizon year(s) • Optional, at sponsor’s discretion • 10- or 20-year projection: demographics, transit system

  15. Concepts and terminology • “Scenarios” describing the transit system • Existing system (“Base” for now; under review) • No-build (NOBL) • Build (BLD- or PROJ; under review)

  16. Concepts and terminology • “Forecasts” • Each STOPS run produces three forecasts • Slot 1: Calibration (current year + existing system) • Slot 2: No-build (user-selected year + No-build system) • Slot 3: Build (same user-selected year + Build system)

  17. Suggested application approach • Install STOPS on your computer • Prepare the current-year forecasts • Run the calibration forecast • Current-year demographics • Current system for all three “scenario” slots • Add the No-build forecast (2nd and 3rd slots) • Add the Build forecast (3rd slot)

  18. Suggested application approach • Prepare horizon-year forecasts (if needed) • Horizon-year demographics with current transit scenarios • Slot 1: current + existing (to repeat the calibration) • Slot 2: horizon + No-build • Slot 3: horizon + Build • Horizon-year demographics with horizon transit scenarios • Slot 1: current + existing (to repeat the calibration) • Slot 2: horizon + updated No-build • Slot 3: horizon + updated Build

  19. Input data • Census shape files for CTPP geography and census blocks • BTS: CTPP Parts 1, 2, and 3 in ASCII format • Transit agency(ies): Current-year GTFS timetables • MPO • Shape file with zones and pop/emp by year • Zone-to-zone highway impedances • Project sponsor • Station locations and grade level • Service plan with detail sufficient to construct a schedule

  20. Computer resources • Operating system: Windows XP, 7, or 8 • Memory: 2GB minimum, 4GB recommended • Disk space: 20-100GB (perhaps USB external) • GIS: ESRI-shape-file capable • Automated interface with TransCAD v5, ArcMap 10.1 • Manual interface with other GIS packages [Note: testing of other GIS versions/packages desirable]

  21. Skills • GIS – create and modify ESRI shape files • Travel forecasting • Mechanics of model application • Nature of file-types and data used by travel models • Review and interpretation of travel forecasts • Transit • Awareness of agencies providing service • Understanding of the nature of transit services

  22. Time • Calibration forecast • Data assembly – 2 hours to 1 week • Scenario forecasts • Editing of GTFS files – 2 hours to 1 week • Review of forecasts • QC and interpretation – 1 day to 1 week • Every STOPS run requires ~3 hours

  23. Stops installation and application • Installation and configuration • Hands-on preparation of a full STOPS run • Batch run • Data sources • Results

  24. Next steps • Comments on the draft users’ guide • Initial assignments to contractors • FTA contacts with project sponsors • RSG support

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