1 / 30

Ulrich Damrath

About common plots for precipitation. Ulrich Damrath. Common area DJF 2012/2013, threshold 0.2 mm /6h, all centers. UD: About common plots for precipitation. Common area DJF 2012/2013, threshold 0.8 mm /24h. UD: About common plots for precipitation.

cheyenne-fuentes
Download Presentation

Ulrich Damrath

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. About common plots for precipitation Ulrich Damrath

  2. Common area DJF 2012/2013, threshold 0.2 mm /6h, all centers UD: About common plots for precipitation

  3. Common area DJF 2012/2013, threshold 0.8 mm /24h UD: About common plots for precipitation

  4. Common area DJF 2012/2013, threshold 0.2 mm /6h, COSMO-GR and COSMO-EU UD: About common plots for precipitation

  5. Common area DJF 2012/2013, threshold 0.8 mm /24h, COSMO-GR and COSMO-EU UD: About common plots for precipitation

  6. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 0.2 mm /6h, all centers UD: About common plots for precipitation

  7. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 0.2 mm /6h, COSMO-GR and COSMO-EU UD: About common plots for precipitation

  8. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 0.8 mm /24h, all centers UD: About common plots for precipitation

  9. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 0.8 mm /24h, COSMO-GR and COSMO-EU UD: About common plots for precipitation

  10. Common area DJF 2012/2013, threshold 0.2 mm /6h, all centers UD: About common plots for precipitation

  11. Ranks of QPF, common area DJF 2012/2013 UD: About common plots for precipitation

  12. Common area DJF 2012/2013, threshold 0.2 mm /6h, all centers, with confidence intervals 5-95% (bootstrap results with assumption of Gaussian distribution of bootstrapped elements) UD: About common plots for precipitation

  13. Ranks of QPF, common area DJF 2012/2013with confidence intervals 5-95% UD: About common plots for precipitation

  14. Ranks of QPF, common area DJF 2012/2013with confidence intervals 5-95% UD: About common plots for precipitation

  15. Ranks of QPF, common area DJF 2012/2013ONLY ONE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE!!! UD: About common plots for precipitation

  16. Ranks of QPF, common area MAM 2013with confidence intervals 5-95% UD: About common plots for precipitation

  17. Ranks of QPF, common area MAM 2013with confidence intervals 5-95% UD: About common plots for precipitation

  18. Ranks of QPF, common area MAM 2013with confidence intervals 5-95% (bootstrap results with assumption of Gaussian distribution of bootstrapped elements) UD: About common plots for precipitation

  19. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 10 mm /6h, all centerswith confidence intervals 5-95% (bootstrap results with assumption of Gaussian distribution of bootstrapped elements) UD: About common plots for precipitation

  20. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 10 mm /6h, all centerswith confidence intervals 5-95% (bootstrap results with assumption of Gaussian distribution of bootstrapped elements) Relatestoquantiles 2.5% and 97.5% UD: About common plots for precipitation

  21. Ranks of QPF, common area MAM 2013(bootstrap results with quantiles 5 and 95% of bootstrapped elements) UD: About common plots for precipitation

  22. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 10 mm /6h, all centers(bootstrap results with quantiles 5 and 95% of bootstrapped elements) UD: About common plots for precipitation

  23. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 10 mm /6h, all centers(bootstrap results with quantiles 5 and 95% of bootstrapped elements) Relatestothe significancelevel 10% of a Gaussian distribution UD: About common plots for precipitation

  24. Current COSMO versions (excerpt from the website) UD: About common plots for precipitation

  25. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 0.2 mm /6h, all centers UD: About common plots for precipitation

  26. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 10 mm /6h, all centers UD: About common plots for precipitation

  27. Numberofpoints in the 15km-radius variesfrom 9 to 14 forthefinemesh (not shownhere) andfrom 1 to 4 forthecoarsemesh How the 15km-radius-criteria works UD: About common plots for precipitation

  28. 10637 MAM 2012 UD: About common plots for precipitation

  29. 10637 MAM 2013 UD: About common plots for precipitation

  30. What did we see? • For all model version a distinct diurnal cycle of the FBI for 6h-accululated precipitation amounts is detected. • No surprise because of column made precipitation • A spin up problem for COSMO-I7 and COSMO-PL for DJF 2012/2013 • May be explained by using of pure GME BC and initialisation in COSMO-PL • and (perhaps???) the position of common area near boundary for COSMO-I7 • Not visible for MAM 2013 • FBIs for COSMO-PL during MAM 2013: • For low precipitation amounts FBIs are in the order of one and clearly below the values of other COSMO installations. • For high precipitation amounts COSMO-PL-results are clearly above the values of all other model versions. • This can be partly explained by the coarser grid of COSMO-Pl compared to the other versions. • A rank of QPF quality can be detected with statistical significance only for low precipitation amounts. • For some high precipitation amounts a significant difference between model quality can be derived in some cases. It is probably not significant in the sense of science. • The question about the order of ETSes for different accumulation periods seems to be open. UD: About common plots for precipitation

More Related