Ulrich Pflüger & Ulrich Damrath

1. Current state of COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE verification using Analysis, SYNOP- and upper air observations Ulrich Pflüger & Ulrich Damrath

2. Outline • Verification against analysis • Verification against SYNOPs • Traditional verification - known problems • Conditional verification • Verification against upper air observations • Some time series • A problem using observations • Verification against SYNOP-observations Warning: Be prepared to see a lot of red and blue lines!

3. Verification against analysis • All levels • All forecast times with an increment of 12 hours • All elements on pressure levels • Comparison with GME

4. Verification against analysis: mslp

5. Verification against analysis: RH 850 hPa

6. Verification against SYNOPstemperature 06 UTC

7. Verification against SYNOPstemperature 12 UTC

8. Verification against SYNOPstemperature 18 UTC

9. Verification against SYNOPsmaximum temperature 06-18 UTC

10. Verification against SYNOPspressure bias 06 UTC

11. Example for conditional verification Forecasted and observed values of surface level pressure over the region of Germany during DJF 2005/2006 (RMSE and STDV) Forecasted and observed values of surface level pressure over the region of Germany during DJF 2005/2006 observed and forecasted values lowerthan 1020 hPa (RMSE and STDV) Forecasted and observed values of surface level pressure over the region of Germany during DJF 2005/2006 observed and forecasted values higherthan 1020 hPa (RMSE and STDV)

12. Conditional verification • Surface weather elements • Conditions concerning • cloud cover • pressure • temperature • Criteria • observation below/above mean observation • forecast below/above mean observation

13. Conditional verification (no condition, winter)

14. Conditional verification (high cloud covers, winter)

15. Conditional verification (low cloud covers, winter)

16. Conditional verification (high temperatures, winter)

17. Conditional verification (low temperatures, winter)

18. Conditional verification (no condition, summer)

19. Conditional verification (high temperatures, summer)

20. Conditional verification (low temperatures, summer)

21. RMSE Rel.Hum./Temperature (LM Area) 2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007

22. RMSE Wind Speed/Geopotential (LM Area) 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 2005

23. BIAS Rel.Humidity/Temperature (LM Area) 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2005

24. Comparison: Temperature BIAS/RMSE Summer 2006/2007 in LM Area BIAS LM Area Summer 2006 BIAS RMSE LM Area Summer 2007 BIAS RMSE

25. Comparison: Temperature BIAS/RMSE Summer 2007 in COSMO-DE/LM Area BIAS COSMO-DE Area Summer 2007 BIAS RMSE LM Area Summer 2007 BIAS RMSE

26. Comparison: Temperature BIAS/RMSE June 2007 COSMO-DE/EU BIAS RMSE

27. Comparison: Temperature BIAS/RMSE July 2007 COSMO-DE/EU BIAS RMSE

28. Comparison: Temperature BIAS/RMSE August 2007 COSMO-DE/EU BIAS RMSE

29. Comparison: BIAS/RMSE of COSMO-EU Temperature, Winddirection/speed against Radiosonde and Windprofiler Data from Lindenberg 00 UTC 12 UTC BIAS BIAS RMSE RMSE BIAS RMSE RMSE BIAS BIAS RMSE RMSE BIAS

30. Summary • Verification against analysis confirms some problems that can be shown with verification against SYNOPs • Verification against SYNOPs • Problems with pressure bias indicate the need of a SSO-scheme • Systematic errors of temperature forecasts can be partial explained by conditional verification • Verification against upper air observations • Effects of pseudotemps and introduction of GME/40km can be seen clearly • Cold bias of temperature within the boundary layer is a COSMO-law, especially during winter • Some systematic differences between COSMO-EU and -DE exist for the boundary layer • Be careful when using new observation systems to verify a model!