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Lecture 23: The Rise of China

Lecture 23: The Rise of China. 1. Historical Background 2. Power Transition Theory 3. Recent Chinese Growth 4. American-Chinese Relations: Sources of Conflict 5. Regional Stability in Asia 6. Will China Become a Democracy? 7. Student Questions. Historical Background.

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Lecture 23: The Rise of China

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  1. Lecture 23: The Rise of China 1. Historical Background 2. Power Transition Theory 3. Recent Chinese Growth 4. American-Chinese Relations: Sources of Conflict 5. Regional Stability in Asia 6. Will China Become a Democracy? 7. Student Questions

  2. Historical Background End of the Ch’ing Dynasty (1644-1911) 1911 Instability, Revolts, Invasions, and Civil War Mao’s Communist Victory 1949 1950 Intervention in the Korean War (November) Decay of Chinese-Soviet Relations 1966 Soviet-Chinese Border Clashes 1969 Cultural Revolution 1972 Nixon Plays the “China Card” 1976 Death of Mao 1978 “Market Reforms” Begin Slowly 2001

  3. A Success Story Average Annual Time Period % Growth 1960-1978 (pre-reform) 5.3 1979-1999 (post-reform) 9.7 1991 9.3 1992 14.2 1993 13.5 1994 12.7 1995 10.5 1996 9.7 1997 8.8 1998 7.8 1999 7.1 2000 (Jan-June) 8.2 Source: Morrison 2000

  4. Power Transition Theory The Within Country Power Transition GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT POWER TRANSITION POINT TIME The Between Country Power Transition RISING CHALLENGER DECLINING HEGEMON GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT THE CROSS OVER POINT TIME

  5. Two Key Questions Will China Surpass the U.S.? Is China Dissatisfied?

  6. Measuring Size and Growth Rate Problem #1: How Big Is The Chinese Economy? Nominal GDP Nominal PPP Country GDP $B PPP $B GDP GDP --------- -------- ------- per capita per capita U.S. 9,234 9,234 33,835 33,835 Japan 4,370 2,935 34,519 23,465 Germany 2,111 1,748 25,694 21,841 China 997 5,201 790 4,228 Problem #2: How Fast Will It Grow?

  7. Transitions and Conflict Yes, But China Starts Out Significantly Behind the U.S. Yes, But a Moderately Long Lead Time Exists Will China Surpass the U.S.? Yes: Rejects World Run by Capitalists & Democrats Yes: Demands Prestige (or its “Place in the Sun”) Yes: Supports Revolutionary Forces Abroad No: Not Territorially Expansionist No: Increasingly Integrated in International System No: Needs Investment, Trade, and Technology Is China Dissatisfied?

  8. Source: U.S. Embassy in China, Trade & Investment Briefing

  9. Singapore Taiwan Other USA Japan Hong Kong

  10. Sources of U.S.-China Conflict: • Trade • Human Rights • Taiwan

  11. Sources of U.S.-China Conflict: Trade • Growing U.S. Trade Deficit With China • 1999: U.S. Exports to China: $13.12 • 1999: U.S. Imports From China: $87.78 • Will Chinese Membership in the WTO Lessen Conflict? • a) Regime Will Encourage China to Cooperate • b) WTO is Impartial Monitor • c) Concessions are to a Third Party • d) Keeps Conflict from Spreading

  12. Sources of U.S.-China Conflict: Human Rights • Tiananmen Square (June 1989) & Response • Chinese Perspective: Question of Sovereignty • American Perspective: Moral Obligation • -- Idealism • -- President Carter: Shift in U.S. Policy • -- New International Norm: Protecting Human Rights

  13. Sources of U.S.-China Conflict: Taiwan • Legacy of Civil War & 1949 Communist Victory • Korean War Links U.S. to Defense of Taiwan • Series of “Taiwan Straits Crises” During the Cold War • U.S. Establishes Bi-Lateral Relations with PRC in 1979 • Recent Democratization of Taiwan • Military and Economic Costs of a Chinese Invasion • Can the U.S. Deter China in Any Way?

  14. Regional Stability: China’s Relations with its Neighbors • Long History of Conflict • 1980’s: Chinese Cuts in Defense Spending • 1990’s: Defense Build Up Begins • a) Reorder Defense Focus • b) Impact of the Persian Gulf War • c) Typical Patter for a Developing Country • d) Buy Off the Military • Response to Buildup: Private Alarm & Public Appeasement • China’s Biggest Fear: A Re-Armed Japan

  15. A Comment on the Build-Up • In Percentage Terms, the Build-Up is Alarming • But Percentages can be Misleading Defense Spending (U.S.$b) Defense as a % of GDP GDP (U.S.$t) U.S. China 8.5 4.4 267 36 3% 1% 1998 Estimates from CIA Fact Book; CIA states that official Chinese Defense Spending is $12b; IISS estimates it at $36b

  16. Will China Become A Democracy? • Tiananmen Square 1989 • General Hypothesis: • Economic Development ---(+)---> Political Development • Optimists: • -- Seeds of Democracy Have Been Planted • Pessimists: • a) Low GNP per Capita • b) Exchange Economic Rewards for Political Silence • c) Peasants are Conservative Majority

  17. Conclusions • Tremendous Social & Economic Change in China • Important Implications for the Distribution of Power • Navigating Will Be Difficult But Not Impossible

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