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GO FIGURE – MATH CAN LIE (A BIT). 3 X 1/3 = 1 (RIGHT?). SO IF: 1/3 = 0.333 WHAT DOES 3*0.333 = ? 0.999 RIGHT?. ACTUALLY NO: IN MATH 0.999(REPEATING DECIMAL) = 1. HERE’S PROOF: X= 0.999 10(X) = 9.999 10X – X = 9.999 – 0.999 9X = 9 X = 1. GOT TO LOVE THIS STUFF????.
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GO FIGURE – MATH CAN LIE (A BIT) 3 X 1/3 = 1 (RIGHT?) SO IF: 1/3 = 0.333 WHAT DOES 3*0.333 = ? 0.999 RIGHT? ACTUALLY NO: IN MATH 0.999(REPEATING DECIMAL) = 1 HERE’S PROOF: X= 0.999 10(X) = 9.999 10X – X = 9.999 – 0.999 9X = 9 X = 1 GOT TO LOVE THIS STUFF????
BIGFOOT INVESTMENTS OPEN FORUM Mar 28th, 2013 WELCOME!
AGENDA • WELCOME! • ADMIN NOTES • QUOTE OF THE DAY • OPTIMISM GAUGE • CHARTS OF INTEREST • SO WHAT’S UP WITH: CONVERTIBLE BONDS • A CLOSER LOOK AT • DAVID’S CORNER • SWAPS AND SPREADS • LEE’S COMMENTS • QUESTIONS/COMMENTS
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Notifying You! SMS Alert System
Screening/Scoring for April *Note: We will attempt to have all postings completed AMC on 3/28/2013
QUOTE OF THE DAY: Take time to deliberate; but when the time for action arrives…… …STOP THINKING AND GO ON! Andrew Jackson
Optimism Gauge As of: 3/28/2013
Measuring Our Economy Last Update: 3/28/2013
Measuring Our Economy READING AS OF: 3/28/2013 Economic Optimism Index NOTES/COMMENTS CURRENT READING: 67.7% PRIOR READING: 76.3% BIAS: MILDLY BULLISH 9 OF 13 INDICATORS POSITIVE TREND - NEGATIVE 45 65 35 75 25 85 67.7% 15 95 Current Reading Prior Reading POSITIVE AS OF: 8/17/2012
WE CAN HOPE Source: EIA
EVER HEARD OF THE MSDP? It’s the Monthly Statement of Public Debt • Published by Treasury Direct??? • Summary of Debt Holdings • Last published in Feb, 2013 • Also includes Statutory Limits
SO WHAT’S UP WITH: Convertible Bonds
DEFINITION A bond that can be converted into a predetermined amount of the company's equity at certain times during its life, usually at the discretion of the bondholder. It is much like a Call Option that is attached to a bond. As such, there is a premium “attached” - a lower interest rate The conversion feature is a RIGHT NOT AN OBLIGATION! Sometimes called "CVs” or “Converts” Source: Investopedia
THE BASICS: • Par Value: Price when issued • Conversion Price: Set when bond issued • Conversion Ratio: Components Bond Description (Sample): Acme Company 5-year CB with $1000 Par Value and Coupon of 5%; Conversion Price = $40 Par Value of Bond Conversion Price $1000 $40 Par Value of Bond Conversion Ratio Conversion Ratio 25 $40 = or • Conversion Value Current Stock Price ($30) X Conversion Ratio (25) = $750 AS YOU CAN SEE THIS BOND IS SELLING AT A PREMIUM
MORE : Parity – Bond’s conversion is equal to stock price Conversion Premium - Price of Bond exceeds market price of stock an investor would receive upon conversion Stock Split – Original Conversion Ratio/Split Ratio Dividend Declared - Conversion Ratio increases by dividend amount therefore the Conversion Price decreases.
PROS AND CONS FOR PURCHASING CONVERTIBLES • PROS: • They pay interest • Typically offer better returns than conventional bonds (Kiplinger) • If stock falls – they can only call so far since they eventually pay principal • You may get to convert for a profit • Offer some degree of protection against market fluctuations • You can get dividends from companies that don’t normally pay such • CONS: • Often issued by companies with poor credit ratings • Can be dilutive to EPS of company • If stock of company performs poorly – no conversion • If issuer goes bankrupt have lower priority than common bonds • Sell at premiums • Usually “callable” – capping gains • Can have limited upside Sources: about.com BONDS BioStockspro.com
INVESTING OPTIONS: • Buy the bond • ETF – CWB (SPDR Barclays Convertible Securities) • YTD - +3.51% • 1 – Year - +9.03 • CVRT Closed in Feb, 2013 (Invesco) • Mutual Funds – Next Pages • Best option – ETF or Fund
Ranked Based On: • 3-yr Return • Expense Ratio • Earnings Growth Rate • High YTD Return • High 5-yr Return • High Star Rating • Low P/E
WHAT’S A REVERSE CONVERTIBLE BOND? While a CONVERTIBLE BOND gives the BONDHOLDER the right to convert the asset to equity, a REVERSE CONVERTIBLE gives the ISSUER the right to convert to equity. In this case it is like a PUT OPTION that is held by the bond’s issuer on company shares. The company has the right , but not the obligation, to convert the bond into shares of company stock at the set date – and are exercised when the stock is below a “strike” price. • Why would you buy one? • Higher interest rates – sometimes 10%+ • Sideways markets
SWAPS & “SPREADS” IGNORE AT YOUR PERIL
CREDIT ANTICIPATES – EQUITY CONFIRMS Note: Status = No impact Status = Negative Impact As Of: 3/27/2013
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