Christchurch Transportation Planning Post Feb 2011 Earthquake

1. Christchurch Transportation Planning Post Feb 2011 Earthquake Presented by Andrew Metherell

2. Contents • Introduction • Land Use • Available Data • Estimating Changes • Modelling • The CTM • Application and Results

3. Where is Christchurch?

4. Christchurch Statistics • Population: 415,000 • Households: 150,000 • Total Area: 1,425 km2

5. The Earthquakes

6. ~1,200 road surface defects >50,000 road surface defects

7. The Effects • Roads closed, CBD shut • Households, business, schools and shops re-located • Traffic increases on key routes • Increased travel time • Reduced trip reliability

8. The Responses • “Get Christchurch Moving” – Emergency Response • “Keep Christchurch Moving” • Review of Forward Capital Works Programme • Utilise Christchurch Transportation Model (CTM)

9. The Model • Land use based, various forecast years • Person-based travel • Strategic network representation • Wide geographic area • Daily travel calculations

10. Policy Assumptions Land Use Data Network Data Zonal Trip Ends Generation Modal Choice Trip Distribution Route Choice (Assignment) Results Christchurch Transportation Model

11. Modelling Plan • Immediate effects covered by emergency response • 6 month post EQ (2011) • Compare pre and post EQ travel demand changes • Confirm observed change in travel patterns • 5 years hence, 2016 various rates of recovery to CBD • Identify recovery travel demand changes • Test forward work programme effects • Long term, 2026 and 2041, assume full recovery (for now)

12. Land Use – Available Data • Post Redirections • Residential “stickers” (red/yellow/green) • Local knowledge • Transport planners • Real estate experts

13. Household Postal Redirections • FROM • TO • As of 12 April 2011 • 64% redirects remain with City

14. Net Postal Redirections • 3,700 redirects from (red) • 2,400 redirects to (green) • Excludes PO boxes

15. “Stickers”/Placards • What do the three colours mean? • RED – Do not enter a red placarded building because it is unsafe • YELLOW – Buildings suitable for restricted access until issues are resolved • GREEN – Building accessed and no structural hazards apparent

16. Residential “Sticker” Status • Red or yellow stickers • 5,750 households “lost”

17. Land Use – Estimating Changes • Determine overall net loss (pop/HHs) • Determine geographic distribution • Reductions • But increases in some areas • With CBD closed, where will business (& jobs) be?

18. Net Loss – Population / HHs • Population loss • 10,000 Christchurch • Estimate household reduction from population (2.6 ppl/hh) • 3,800 less households Waimakariri Christchurch Selwyn

19. Geographic Distribution • Household loss areas • Residential sticker status • Postal redirection • Vacant residential land • Where will people move to? • Zoned “vacant” residential land • Some in damaged areas

20. CBD Job Loss • Main job loss in CBD • Unemployment likely to rise (so fewer jobs overall) • Pre-quake 55,900 • Post-quake 30,900 CBD Fringe -50%* Pre=8,100 Post=4,900 CBD Outer -10% Pre=25,100 Post=24,400

21. AIRPORT CBD PORT Job changes around the city Existing Major Business Areas

22. Roads of National Significance

23. Modelling – Scenarios Evaluated 2016 Onwards 2011 Pre Post Initial RoNS Full RoNS Pre 2011 Post Post LAND USE 2016 Pre Pre 2026 2041 Pre 4 Stage Model Run Assignment only, fixed demands

24. Forecast Post-Quake Changes INCREASE DECREASE • 2011 Daily Demand

25. Future Network Implementation – Initial RoNS INCREASE DECREASE • 2016 Daily Demand Change with Initial Road of National Significance (CSM1 and Western Corridor)

26. Initial RoNS – Congestion Relief Land use: 2016 Post-Quake Network: 2011 Post-Quake Land use: 2016 Post-Quake Network: 2011 Initial RoNS

27. Outcomes • CTM useful in post earthquake planning • Traffic forecasts consistent with post quake counts • Able to demonstrate initial RoNs required

28. Acknowledgements

29. Questions?