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PRISM Update

PRISM. GROUP. PRISM Update. Christopher Daly Director, PRISM Climate Group Northwest Alliance for Computational Science and Engineering College of Engineering Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR. Topics. 1981-2010 Normals USDA Risk Management Agency Project. PRECIPITATION

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PRISM Update

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  1. PRISM GROUP PRISM Update Christopher Daly Director, PRISM Climate Group Northwest Alliance for Computational Science and Engineering College of Engineering Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

  2. Topics • 1981-2010 Normals • USDA Risk Management Agency Project

  3. PRECIPITATION All Stations With at Least ONE Qualifying Month (>= 85%, 5 yrs west, 10 east) 1971-2000: 13,648 Stations West East

  4. PRECIPITATION All Stations With at Least ONE Qualifying Month (>= 85%, 5 yrs west, 10 east) 1981-2010: 19,817 Stations West East

  5. PRECIPITATION All Stations With at Least ONE Qualifying Month (>= 85%, 5 yrs west, 10 east) 1981-2010: 20,188 Stations West East SNOTEL 711 SNOWCOURSE 510 NDSWC 759 MNHIDEN 490 EC 1899 AGRIMET 66 WBAN 988 ICN 14 RAWS 42 COCORAHS 736 CDEC 608 OK MESONET 108 COOP 11,613 HDSC 434 SFWMD 438 Temperature 1971-2000: ~11,700 1981-2010: ~16,700

  6. 1971-2000 Mean Annual Precipitation

  7. 1981-2010 Mean Annual Precipitation

  8. 1971-2000 Mean Annual Maximum Temperature

  9. 1981-2010 Mean Annual Maximum Temperature

  10. 1971-2000 Mean Annual Minimum Temperature

  11. 1981-2010 Mean Annual Minimum Temperature

  12. Federal Crop Insurance Basics • Federal crop insurance program covers about $110 billion in crop value ~80% participation nationwide for major crops • Sold and delivered by 16 private insurance companies • USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) oversees and re-insures • Largest number of insurance claims are for drought, excessive moisture, heat, cold, and hail – WEATHER

  13. Typical Cause-of-Loss Language • “Crop could not be planted due to excessively wet conditions” • “Harvest was delayed and crop quality was reduced due to cold and wet weather” • “Crop was damaged due to unusually hot weather” How do claims managers evaluate whether it was too wet, too dry, too cold or too hot?

  14. PRISM Support for Crop InsuranceCompliance • Provide high-quality weather and climate maps to expedite claims • Did the claimed damaging event occur? • Short time scale: Daily and monthly PRISM maps over the lower 48 states in near real time • Was the event unusual enough to warrant payment? • Long time scale: Climatic context for the event • Make the assessment process quick and easy • Web-based tools

  15. PRISM/RMA Weather & Climate Portal • New portal being developed for RMA • Provides fast access to quality climate data • Incorporates usability engineering so it’s easier to use and produces info relevant to RMA needs • Initial prototype focuses on 4 key ways users need to find and apply weather&climate data

  16. Recent Conditions

  17. Recent Conditions

  18. Summary Assessment: Tallahassee, FL, June 2012

  19. Classification Scheme – 30 Years Precipitation Percentile Range Temperature Unusually Wet Unusually Warm 90-100th 70-90th Wet Warm 30-70th Typical Typical Cool Dry 10-30th Unusually Dry Unusually Cool 0-10th Rank Rank

  20. View Details

  21. Detailed Data: Ft. Collins, CO

  22. Task 4: Generate Customized Report • Select a 16-month "insurance period" and location • Get an on-demand prevented planting report • Future plans • Other types of reports

  23. Customized Report • Report style based on manually-created versions that were used successfully in court cases • Generates usable English-language text

  24. Customized Report:Interactive Tables and Graphs

  25. Customized Report:Maps of Cumulative Precipitation Compared to Normal 16-month 12-month 6-month 3-month 1-month

  26. Customized Report:Summary Section

  27. How Can Growers Participate in the Weather and Climate Assessment Process? • Growers live and breath the weather! • Many take their own precipitation measurements • We cannot accept these measurements because of unknown methods and equipment • But there is now a way for them to participate…

  28. Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network Photo: Christy Johnson

  29. Next Steps for the Portal • Coming next week: • 1981-2010 monthly normals • Daily precipitation • Coming this fall: • Daily normals • Radar-enhanced precipitation • Public access? Still unsure, probably a year out

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