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Mr. Bernard Edward Gomez Principal Meteorologist Department of Water Resources 7, Marina Parade

Status of climate change/ variability studies & potential impacts on national & regional agriculture WMO Region I - Africa. Mr. Bernard Edward Gomez Principal Meteorologist Department of Water Resources 7, Marina Parade Banjul, The Gambia Tel: (+220) 422 4122 / 422 8216

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Mr. Bernard Edward Gomez Principal Meteorologist Department of Water Resources 7, Marina Parade

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  1. Status of climate change/ variability studies & potential impacts on national & regional agriculture WMO Region I - Africa Mr. Bernard Edward Gomez Principal Meteorologist Department of Water Resources 7, Marina Parade Banjul, The Gambia Tel: (+220) 422 4122 / 422 8216 E-mail: <be63gomez@yahoo.co.uk>

  2. Presentation Plan • Regional Context • Approach of the assessment • Potential impacts on agriculture, forestry, rangelands & fisheries

  3. Regional Context • Significant diversity (landform, climate, culture, economic situation, biota, etc.) • Climates (Mediterranean, arid, semi-arid, humid) • High dependence on climate sensitive natural resources sectors • General weakness in science & technology • Declining per capita food production • Low capacity for state-initiated interventions

  4. Approach of the Assessment • Studies did not use a common set of climate scenarios and methods / sensitivities & adaptability of natural & social systems are uncertain, assessment is mainly qualitative • Insufficient rigour particularly in FNCs, coupled with uncertainties in cc science • Constraints (time, resource (human/material)low feedback on questionnaire) climate categories (Medit., Arid, Semi-arid, humid)

  5. Potential Impacts on Agriculture • Major impacts to occur from changes in temp., moisture levels, uv radiation, CO2 , pests/diseases • In Medit., Arid & Semi-arid climates, rise in temp. would increase evap & soil salinity leading to further land degradation; this added to reductions in rainfall threaten irrigation potential

  6. Agriculture - contd • Temp. increase threatens food production (maize, wheat, millet, sorghum) significantly • Increase in extreme wx. events under cc expected to increase stresses on production • Agro-ecological shifts threaten some crop species, as well as favour the appearance of new pests/diseases

  7. Potential Impacts on Rangelands • Drier conditions expected to increase freq. of uncontrolled fires in rangelands • Ecological shifts due to temp. likely to cause invasion of grasslands (SA) by trees • In arid & semi-arid regions, reductions in plant cycles, shift & reduction of growth period, favor extinction/migration of species • In humid regions, C/N ratio of fodder will drop further, reducing feed quality

  8. Potential Impacts on Forestry • Due to the close correlation between climate (temp & ppt) and vegetation, climate change will alter the distribution & productivity of vegetation • Drier conditions would lead to decline in wood productivity, affecting household fuel needs & local wood industries

  9. Potential Impacts on Fisheries • Least assessed sector • Decrease in ppt would affect lake/river fisheries • Temp. increases are likely to reduce upwelling effects along the Atlantic Ocean

  10. Thank you for your attention!

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