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California Department of Water Resources Climate Change Water Management

California Department of Water Resources Climate Change Water Management. Andrew Schwarz P.E. California Department of Water Resources. California’s Wild Precipitation Regime. California’s Wild Precipitation Regime. Monthly Average Runoff of Sacramento River System.

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California Department of Water Resources Climate Change Water Management

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  1. California Department of Water Resources Climate Change Water Management Andrew Schwarz P.E. California Department of Water Resources

  2. California’s Wild Precipitation Regime

  3. California’s Wild Precipitation Regime

  4. Monthly Average Runoff of Sacramento River System

  5. Monthly Average Runoff in San Joaquin River System

  6. Snowpack Changes We had already lost 1.5 MAF (1.85 billion m3) of snowpack between 1950 and 2010

  7. Sea water

  8. Possible Approaches Study: “Climate Change Characterization and Analysis in California Water Resources Planning Studies” http://www.water.ca.gov/climatechange/docs/DWR_CCCStudy_FinalReport_Dec23.pdf

  9. California Water Plan 2013 Approach

  10. Planning for an Uncertain FutureSeeking shared understanding of : • The existing state (of water) in the regions • A range of multiple, plausible future conditions • What the options are to manage current and future conditions • The options that seem to make the most sense to invest in, in different regions

  11. CWP Uses the WEAP Model Customized Representation of Central Valley

  12. CWP Planning Approach Designed for Long-term Decision-making • The future is uncertain: no single prediction of the future is adequate for planning • There is no silver bullet: there are many options and important tradeoffs among them • Analysis can only inform policy decisions: Analysis supports deliberation over tradeoffs

  13. 19 Climate Scenarios • Downscaled AOGCM climate sequences • 12 Climate projections taken directly from GCMs • 4 Ensemble projections representing extreme conditions • 3 runs of historical sequence

  14. Performance of “Current Approach” % Monthly IFRs Not Met 36 Scenario Results Urban water supply reliability (%) Lower Performance Current Approach Agricultural water supply reliability (%)

  15. Analysis Identified andCharacterized Poor Outcomes % Monthly IFRs Not Met Urban water supply reliability (%) “X” = Poor outcomes (bad for 2 of 3 metrics) Current Approach Agricultural water supply reliability (%)

  16. Climate Trends Define “Hot and Dry” Vulnerable Scenario % Monthly IFRs Not Met Urban water supply reliability (%) Poor outcomes described by “Hot and Dry” scenario Current Approach Agricultural water supply reliability (%)

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