Presentation Transcript

1. 2012 Annual Housing Market Survey

2. Methodology C.A.R. has conducted the Annual Housing Market Survey since 1981. The questions and methodology have stayed essentially the same throughout that time. The survey was mailed to a random sample of 15,000 REALTORS® throughout California. The sample represented the geographical distribution of C.A.R. membership across the state. The survey asked REALTORS® to provide information from their most recent sales transaction that closed escrow in the second quarter of 2012. The survey instrument was a seven-page questionnaire with both multiple choice and open-ended questions. There were 932 valid survey responses, equivalent to a response rate of 6.2 percent. The margin of error for this survey was +/- 3.2 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
3. CA Unsold Inventory: Nearing Record Lows September 2012: 3.7 Months Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question. SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
4. Supply Shortage Creates More Market Competition Share of home sales with multiple offers is the highest in at least the last 12 years
5. Market Competition Leads to Fewer Sales with Price Discount Long Run Average = 68% Q. What was the original list sales price of the property?What was the final sales price of the property? How many weeks did the property remain on the MLS?
6. More Buyers Are Purchasing with Cash Almost one-third of buyers paid with all cash The share of all cash buyers has been on the rise since 2006
7. Equity Sales vs. REO vs. Short Sales(2012)
8. Equity Sales (2011 vs. 2012)
9. REO Sales(2011 vs. 2012)
10. Short Sales(2011 vs. 2012)
11. Share of International Buyers Q. Was the buyer an international buyer – a person who was a citizen of another country who wished to purchase residential real estate in the U.S.?
12. Country of International Buyer China (39.1%) Canada (13.0%) India (8.7%) Mexico (8.7%)
13. One of Five REALTORS® Worked with an International Buyer in the Past 12 Months % Who Sold to International Buyers # of Properties Sold to International Buyers in the Last 12 Months Q. How many properties have you sold to an international buyer in the last 12 months?
14. Demand for Investment & Second/ Vacation Homes Dips Slightly, But Remains Strong 7% 16%
15. For Those Who Purchased an Investment Property: 17% Investment to Flip 83% Rental Property
16. Home Buyer Profile(By Type of Sales)
17. Distressed Sales Have a Higher Share of First-Time Buyers Than Equity Sales Q. Was the buyer a first-time buyer?
18. Share of First-Time Buyers Remains Below Average But Improves from 2011 Long Run Average = 39% Q. Was the buyer a first-time buyer?
19. First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index(California) % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
20. First-time Buyer HAI vs. Eff Interest Rates % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
21. First-time Buyer HAI vs. Entry Level Median Price % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
22. Reasons For Buying Q. What was the single most important reason for buying the property?
23. Reasons For Buying First Time Homebuyers Vs. Repeat Homebuyers Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?
24. Median Down PaymentFirst-Time Homebuyers Vs. Repeat Homebuyers Q. What was the amount of downpayment?
25. The Median Down Payment Up 24 Percent from 2011, As Home Prices Increase Q. What was the amount of downpayment?
26. Cash Source for Down PaymentFirst-Time Buyer vs. Repeat Buyer Q. What was the source of the cash the buyer used for a downpayment or to purchase the residence?
27. Repeat Buyers Rely on Personal Savings As Down Payment Q. What was the source of the cash the buyer used for a down payment or to purchase the residence?
28. Percent of Buyers with Zero Down Payment
29. Proportion of Transactions With Second Mortgages Q. In addition to the first mortgage or assumption, was there a second mortgage?
30. Percent of Buyers with Second Mortgage
31. Share of FHA Still Significantly Higher than 2007, But Was the Lowest in 4 Years (First Mortgage) Q. Please indicate the type of mortgage
32. FHA vs. Conventional(New First Mortgage)
33. Seller Household FormationEquity vs. REO vs. Short Sales
34. Home Seller Profile(By Type of Sales)
35. As Sellers with Net Cash Loss Hit a Record High … Long Run Average = 12.3% Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?
36. The Median Net Cash Gain to Sellers Reaches a Record Low in 2012 Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?
37. Years Owned Home Before Selling
38. Reasons For Selling Q. What was the single most important reason for selling the property?
39. More than a Quarter of Sellers Sold Because Their Properties Were in Distressed Status Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?
40. Reasons For Selling HomeEquity vs. REO vs. Short Sales Q. What was the single most important reason for selling the property?
41. More Sellers Are Planning to Buy Another Home As the Market Slowly Recovers Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?
42. Location of Seller’s New Home
43. For Those Who Do Not Plan to Repurchase, Here Are Their Top 5 Reasons:
44. Reasons Sellers Not Planning to Buy Another Home Q. Why is the seller not planning to purchase another home?
45. Top Reasons Under “Other” for Equity Sellers Not Planning to Buy Another Home
46. Property Fallen Out of Escrow Q. Had the property fallen out of escrow prior to this sale?
47. Reasons Why Property Fell Out of Escrow Q. Do you know why the property fell out of escrow previously?
48. Repair Costs/Price Adjustments Q. Did the seller repair items, make adjustments to the purchase price, or make any other concessions during escrow due to discovered defects?
49. How Client Found Their Agent Q. How did your client find and select you to represent them?
50. Buyers Have More “Skin” in the Game
51. Less Likelihood to Default as Monthly Payment Is More Affordable