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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

This report provides an update on the recent evolution and current conditions of the South American Monsoon System, including rainfall patterns, temperature anomalies, and forecast predictions. Visit the link for more information.

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 02 October 2017 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin, Brazilian Plateau and southern Brazil. • During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over areas in the northern South America as well as central and southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of southern Colombia, Bolivia, and eastern Argentina. • For Days 1-7 (02-08 Oct 2017), below-average precipitation is predicted over much of southern Venezuela, western Colombia, the Amazon Basin, as well as southern Peru and Bolivia. Above-average precipitation is predicted for the extreme southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, southern Chile and southern Ecuador.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over areas in the northern South America as well as central and southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of southern Colombia, Bolivia, and eastern Argentina.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of Brazil, southern Chile, eastern Bolivia and western Colombia. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of eastern Colombia, eastern Brazil, Uruguay and eastern Argentina.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall deficits are present over Amazon Basin (~ 80 mm) , the Brazilian Plateau (~ 50 mm) and southern Brazil (~ 150 mm).

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are below-average across much of the central and eastern tropical Pacific. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionsis available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 24-30 Sept. 2017, anomalous cyclonic flow (center noted by red C) was observed over southern Brazil. • Lower panels: Anomalous sinking motion was observed over western Brazil and northern Chile. Anomalous rising motion was observed portions of western Colombia , Argentina and eastern Brazil. C • Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. • Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the 7-day period 24-30 Sept. 2017, above-average temperatures were observed over much of central Brazil. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 02 October 2017–Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 02 October 2017– Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (02-08 Oct 2017), below-average precipitation is predicted over much of southern Venezuela, western Colombia, the Amazon Basin , as well as southern Peru and Bolivia. Above-average precipitation is predicted for the extreme southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, southern Chile and southern Ecuador. • For Days 8-14 (09 - 15 October 2017), below-average precipitation is predicted over portions of central and southern Brazil, southern Chile and western Colombia. Above-average precipitation is predicted over much of northern South America, Peru and the extreme southern Brazil.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 18 Sep 2017 Valid for 25 Sep – 01 Oct 2017 Forecast from 25 Sep 2017 Valid for 25 Sep – 01 Oct 2017 Observed 25 Sep – 01 Oct 2017

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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