Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population: Impact of Net International Migration

1. Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin for the U.S. Population and an Examination of the Impact of Net International Migration David G. Waddington Victoria A. Velkoff For presentation at the Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections, Lisbon, Portugal, April 28-30, 2010

2. Overview • U.S. Census Bureau projections • Recent projection releases • Race and Hispanic origin • Methodology • Comparison of results for different levels of net international migration

3. Population Projections at the U.S. Census Bureau • United States projections • Produce projections for Nation • Population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin • http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/ • International projections • Produce projections for 227 countries and areas with current populations of 5,000 or more • Population by age and sex • Results available on International Data Base (IDB): http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/

4. U.S. Population Projections • Produced periodically since 1940s • Projection period varies (50-100 years) • Cohort-component method • Multiple series (typically) • State projections

5. Recent Releases • 2008 National Projections • 2009 National Projections – Supplemental Series • High Net International Migration • Low Net International Migration • Constant Net International Migration • Zero Net International Migration

6. Race and Ethnicity • Important for development of assumptions in U.S. population projections • Valued by data users • Tracking or evaluating the effectiveness of federal programs or laws.

7. Concepts of Race and Ethnicity • Defined by U.S. Office of Management and Budget for statistical agency collection and reporting • Race and ethnicity are considered to be distinct concepts

8. Race and Ethnicity Categories • Race categories • White • Black or African American • American Indian or Alaska Native • Asian • Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander • Ethnicity categories • Hispanic or Latino • Not Hispanic or Latino

9. Multiple Race Reporting • Multiple race reporting allowed since 1997 • Report “Minimum” and “Maximum” for each group • 31 race combinations • 5 races alone • 10 two-race combinations • 10 three-race combinations • 5 four-race combinations • 1 five-race combination • Hispanic and Non-Hispanic

10. Projecting Race and Hispanic Origin • Race included in projections since 1960s • Hispanic origin included since 1980s • Base population • Basis for assumptions about each group – limited in historical records

11. Current Methods • Start with Census 2000 base population • Produced using cohort-component method • Projected by single year of age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin • Mortality and fertility projected using trends from vital records • International migration projected primarily using historical data on legal migration of the foreign-born population

12. Mortality Assumptions • Time series analysis of data from 1984-2003 • Projected in two tiers • The “big three” • Hispanic • Non-Hispanic Black alone • All other non-Hispanic • Detailed race within the big three groups (did not differentiate assumptions below the big three groups)

13. Fertility Assumptions • Projected same way as mortality, using the big three groups, and then the detailed race and Hispanic origin • Time series analysis of data from 1980-2003 • Assignment of race to newborns • Race of potential mother • Racial composition of men in the projected population • Observed racial/ethnic makeup of “families” from Census 2000

14. International Migration • Projected primarily using historical time series of data on immigration of the foreign born (1972-2002) • Supplemented with cross-sectional data from Census 2000 (primarily for race/ethnicity assignments) • Projected for four country-of-birth groups • Race and Hispanic origin assigned based on Census 2000 distributions • Age and sex based on administrative records

16. Impact of International Migration • Changes in the level of net international migration (NIM) had largest effect on the Hispanic and Asian populations • Higher levels of NIM resulted in: • Younger population • More diverse population • Hispanic population growing rapidly, and relatively faster, regardless of specified level for NIM

19. Questions?

20. Contact Information David G. Waddington (David.G.Waddington@census.gov) Chief, Population Projections Branch Population Division U.S. Census Bureau Washington, DC 20233-8800 Victoria A. Velkoff (Victoria.A.Velkoff@census.gov) Assistant Division Chief for Estimates and Projections Population Division U.S. Census Bureau Washington, DC 20233-8800