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Need for Precision Agriculture in the World

Need for Precision Agriculture in the World. SOIL 4213 BIOEN 4213. http://csf.colorado.edu/pop/ World population and the environment http://www.globalissues.org http://dieoff.com/page174.htm (world population of 2 billion, adjusted over a century).

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Need for Precision Agriculture in the World

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  1. Need for Precision Agriculture in the World SOIL 4213BIOEN 4213 http://csf.colorado.edu/pop/ World population and the environment http://www.globalissues.org http://dieoff.com/page174.htm (world population of 2 billion, adjusted over a century)

  2. "As the difficulty in feeding 90 million more people each year becomes apparent, FOOD SECURITY MAY REPLACE MILITARY SECURITY as the principal preoccupation of governments. For many countries, security now depends more on protecting their territory from soil erosion than it does on protecting it from military invasion." by Ronald Bleier rbleier@igc.apc.org • If we were to maintain our present rate of population growth, by 2095 the world's population would reach almost 13.7 billion. • 1999 UN Population projections. The medium fertility scenario predicts 9.5 billion in 2050, peaking at 11 billion in 2200. • "World population reached 6.1 billion in mid-2000 and is currently growing at an annual rate of 1.2 per cent, or 77 million people per year. Six countries account for half of this annual growth: India for 21 per cent; China for 12 per cent; Pakistan for 5 per cent; Nigeria for 4 per cent; Bangladesh for 4 per cent, and Indonesia for 3 per cent. By 2050, world population is expected to be between 7.9 billion (low variant) and 10.9 billion (high variant), with the medium variant producing 9.3 billion." -- World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision Highlights, United Nations Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 28 February 2001, p.5

  3. Population in 2001 Total (roundedin millions) Density (People persquare kilometer) GNP rank United States 286 31 1 Japan 127 337 2 Germany 82 230 3 France 59 108 4 United Kingdom 60 244 5 Italy 58 191 6 China (12% world growth) 1,285 134 7 India (21) 1,025 312 11 Russian Federation 145 8 16 Indonesia (3) 214 113 30 Bangladesh (4) 140 975 53 Nigeria 117 127 55

  4. Figure 1. World fertilizer N consumption in millions of metric tons, 1961 to 1999, and projected linear consumption. (2050 = 196 million metric tons)

  5. Figure 2. World population as a function of world consumption of fertilizer N in millions of metric tons, 1961 to 1999 (World Population in 1960 was 3 billion)

  6. Figure 3. Metric tons of grain produced per metric ton of fertilizer N applied in the world, from 1961 to 1999.

  7. Table 1. Nitrogen applied for cereal production, area harvested, and grain produced per unit of N applied in the developed and developing world, 1990 to 2001‡.

  8. Need for Precision Agriculture (1) • In 1970, 190,500,000 ha classified as arable and permanent cropland in the USA • Decreased to 187,776,000 ha by 1991. • Irrigated land in the USA peaked at 20,582,000 hectares in 1980 and has been stable at 18,771,000 hectares since 1989. • Trends suggest that cropland in the USA will not expand beyond the present 190,000,000 ha

  9. Need for Precision Agriculture (2) • Developing world: 760,000,000 hectares classified as cropland and could theoretically increase to 850,000,000 hectares. • World population increases by 86 million people per year (235,000/day, World Resources, 1996). • 33,000 people die each day due to malnutrition/starvation • Cropland needed to feed the human population, if population growth stops and land is preserved, will be roughly 3.3 billion hectares, and likely to become limiting near the year 2050

  10. Need for Precision Agriculture (3) • Probability of bringing 3.3 billion hectares into production from the current 1.4 billion hectares is small (www.igc.org/millennium). • A large portion of the lands considered as 'potentially arable' (e.g., increase from 1.4 to 3.3 billion hectares) include tropical rainforests and other lands that would require massive inputs for any kind of sustained crop production.

  11. Need for Precision Agriculture (4) • Unlikely that the total arable world land will increase beyond its present level • Increased production per unit area will be essential. • Applied precision agricultural production practices are timely and required within the developed and developing agricultural community.

  12. Precision Agriculture? • Human need • Environment • Hypoxia • $750,000,000 (excess N flowing down the Mississippi river/yr) • Developed vs Developing Countries • High vs Low yielding environments

  13. Continued success in wheat germplasm and technology dissemination worldwide depends on the free and uninhibited flow of genetic materials and information. Restrictions imposed on such movement due to intellectual property protection could have serious consequences on the ability of developing countries to sustain wheat productivity growth. • …. further gains would have to come from specifically targeting breeding efforts to the unique characteristics of marginal environments

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