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21st century climate change as simulated by European climate models

21st century climate change as simulated by European climate models. U. Cubasch, H. Huebener. Thanks to: F. Niehörster, I. Fast, T. Spangehl. The climate system. Physical system , components interacting on different time and space scales

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21st century climate change as simulated by European climate models

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  1. 21st century climate change as simulated by European climate models U. Cubasch, H. Huebener Thanks to: F. Niehörster, I. Fast, T. Spangehl

  2. The climate system Physical system, components interacting on different time and space scales a use physical equations to describe and simulate the system! Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  3. Global warming since 19th century: anthropogenic signature or natural fluctuations?  Put measured signal in the geological perspective What is the scale? Years? Million years? Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  4. we are here Climate of the last 400 000 years (Vostok ice core) Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  5. Zoom in on last 1000 years (note: change of abscissa) Temperature-Reconstruction (treerings, corals, ice and sediment cores, historical evidence) of northern hemispheretemperature from year 1000 to 1999 and instrumental records from 1902 to 1999 „Mann et al“- curve (Hockey-Stick) Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  6. Natural forcings selectedred: solar, yellow: volcanoes, green: solar and volcanoes volcanoes + solar volcanoes solar Makian El Chichon St. Maria Agung Pinatubo Krakatoa Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  7. natural and anthropogenic forcing observations natural forcing The AR4 modelling results Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  8. ENSEMBLESwww.ensembles-eu.org The project aims to: • Develop an ensemble prediction system for climate change of state-of-the-art, high resolution, global and regional Earth System models developed in Europe, to produce an objective probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal to decadal and longer timescales • Quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System (including water resource, land use, and air quality issues, and carbon cycle feedbacks) • Maximise the exploitation of the results by providing the outputs to a applications e.g. in agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and weather risk management • 76 participants, managed by the Hadley Centre (UK) Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  9. The ENSEMBLES project • EU-project, contributing to IPCC AR4 • 7 European AO-GCMs: • HadCM3 (UK) • HadGEM1 (UK) • ECHAM5/MPI-OM (Germany, Denmark) • CNRM-CM3 (France) • IPSL-CM4 (France) • BCM2 (Norway) • EGMAM (Germany) Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  10. Annual temperature changes (K) A1b Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  11. A1b A2 • Annual mean surface air temp. change (K) for all the scenarios • 2080-2099 rel. to 1980-1999 • Strongest warming in high northern latitudes and over continents • Weakest warming over southern hemisphere oceans • ENSO-like warming pattern in tropical Pacific in A1b and A2 scenario • SE-Asia: warming > 4°C (in A2), > 3°C (in A1b), > 2°C (in B1) B1 Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  12. DJF precipitation change (mm/d) A1B Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  13. Precipitation change A1b scenario mm/d Precipitation change (mm/day), ensemble mean 2080-2099 rel. to 1980-1999 • Largest changes where absolute values are largest (Tropics!) • General increase in Tropics, mid to high latitudes • Decrease in subtropics • Differences in regional trends between models • South China Sea: decrease in DJF, increase in JJA Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  14. Summary I • ENSEMBLES 20th century simulations quite similar to each other and to observations, if both, natural and anthropogenic forcing are included. • IPCC scenarios A2, A1b and B1 have been run by 7 modeling groups. However, sample size per group is still small (≤ 4) • Temperature and precipitation change patterns similar for all the models and to the one in both IPCC reports (2001, 2007) Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  15. Summary II • Warming in all models and all scenarios, largest in high northern latitudes and over continents, smallest over southern oceans • Mean values for the year 2100 relative to 2000: 2.6 K for A1b, 3.4 K for A2 and 1.5 K for B1  lower than in the AR4 report for all scenarios • Global precipitation rise, but distinct regional patterns, less consistency among models Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  16. Comparison ENSEMBLES with AR4 Projected warming in 21st century patterns quite similar. Magnitude of change smaller in ENSEMBLES than in IPCC AR4 IPCC AR4C ENSEMBLES Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  17. Comparison ENSEMBLES with AR4 ENSEMBLES mm/d AR4 Projected precipitation change patterns quite similar Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  18. The ENSEMBLES-Partners and their Models Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  19. Current status of model experiments

  20. Outlook “second stream” simulations have to conform to the IPCC AR5

  21. Atmosphere Ocean Off-line impacts Land-surface Without downscaling sea-ice On-line impacts Earth System Model AOGCM Downscaling and embedded regional models Aerosols Chemistry Dynamic vegetation Land and ocean carbon cycle Impact models second stream? first stream The comprehensive Earth-System-Model Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

  22. Outlook: ENSEMBLES ‘second stream’ models • The models will probably include: • dynamic vegetation • carbon cycle • aerosols (in differing complexity) • The models should be suitable for realizing more than one run Cubasch and Huebener, ICCC 29. – 31. 5. 2007, Hong Kong

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