1 / 25

Regional climate change – European perspectives

Regional climate change – European perspectives. Martin Stendel Danish Climate Centre Danish Meteorological Institute. 1 st EIONET Workshop on CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION EEA, Copenhagen, 27-28 November 2007. Outline. Regional climate change – the IPCC approach

tansy
Download Presentation

Regional climate change – European perspectives

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Regional climate change – European perspectives Martin Stendel Danish Climate Centre Danish Meteorological Institute 1st EIONET Workshop onCLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION EEA, Copenhagen, 27-28 November 2007

  2. Outline • Regional climate change – the IPCC approach • Europe as an example • Research needs

  3. Future climate – all scenarios AR4, with respect to 1980-1999

  4. Projected surface temperature changes for the early and late 21st century (relative to 1980–1999) 2020-2029 2090-2099

  5. Uncertainties in climate scenario calculations • Observational uncertainties • Lots of model validations • Emission scenario uncertainties • Multiple scenarios • Natural climate variability • Ensemble simulations • Climate sensitivity • Use several models • AND/OR improve credibility of climate models • Large-scale, coordinated effort required

  6. Agreement amongst AR4 GCMs (21 models) in the A1B scenario - Europe JJA Annual DJF Temperaturechange (°C) Precipitationchange (%) Number of models(out of 21) projectingprec. change >0 IPCC 2007

  7. Difference 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999 Ann. total prec. divided by # of wet days standard deviations Stippled: ≥5 (of 9) models show significant change Ann. max. # of consecutive dry days After Tebaldi et al. (2006)

  8. PRUDENCE GCM-RCM EU FP5 project

  9. PRUDENCE domains BI SC EA ME FR AL IP MD

  10. Model biases Jacob et al. 2007

  11. Climate change Christensen & Christensen 2007

  12. Change in mean temperature HIRHAM ECHAM Winter

  13. Change in mean temperature HIRHAM ECHAM Summer

  14. Extreme event analysis Change in JAS mean precipitation (2071-2100 minus 1961-1990) Christensen & Christensen Nature 2003 EU PRUDENCE project

  15. Change in precipitation (%) Mean 99% percentile Christensen & Christensen Nature 2003

  16. Schär et al.Nature 2004

  17. Schär et al.Nature 2004

  18. ENSEMBLES GCM-RCM Matrix EU FP6 project

  19. Example: Denmark Change /°C global warming 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 -5.0

  20. Climate analogues Hallegatte et al. 2006

  21. Conclusions – focus on Europe • In many regions a shift to more extreme weather is projected. This goes along with an increased risk for both flooding and drought. • Northern Europe and Arctic: precipitation increase, increased intensity, less dry days • Southern Europe: less precipitation, increased drought, but at the same time increased risk for heavy precipitation

  22. Next step? • ENSEMBLES-like approach can be used to give a quantitative estimation of future changes and associated probabilities. • Climate scenarios can be used for planning of adaptation strategies • We do not have to focus on long-term climate changes (100 years), but can instead make qualified estimates also for shorter periods (20-50 years).

More Related