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GOLD …

GOLD …. What’s Going On? UK Investor Show, April 13, 2012. Target 1: Dow : Gold … 2: 1. Target 2: UK House Prices < 100 oz of gold. Target 3: End Of Negative Real Rates. CPI = 2.8 % RPI = 3.2% Is real inflation higher? Bank Of England Rate 0.5%. Cash loses you c. 3% per year

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GOLD …

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  1. GOLD … What’s Going On? UK Investor Show, April 13, 2012

  2. Target 1: Dow : Gold … 2: 1

  3. Target 2: UK House Prices < 100 oz of gold

  4. Target 3: End Of Negative Real Rates • CPI = 2.8% • RPI = 3.2% • Is real inflation higher? • Bank Of England Rate 0.5%. • Cash loses you c. 3% per year • NRR better than last year, but still negative.

  5. Target 4: US gold matches US debt Gold's role "during periods of monetary stress" is to "balance the international balance sheet of the USA". Jim Sinclair

  6. 21st January 1980 Sinclair sold his gold, the day it spiked it to $850. • The value of US gold ($221bn) exceeded US monetary base ($160bn) by 140%

  7. According to the US Treasury the US has 261.5 millionoz of gold. • Fort Knox gold has not been independently audited in 50 years. • In his book Good As Gold Chris Weber argues all the gold is not there. Let us assume it is. • At $1,500 per oz that gold is worth $392 billion, or $0.392 trillion.

  8. US National Debt is currently almost $16.8 trn • US Total Debt is $59trn • US Monetary base now = $3trn

  9. US Monetary base now = $3trn • If US gold = 100% US paper, gold price would be $11,494 oz(3trn/261m oz) • If US Gold = 140% US paper, gold would be $16,000 oz • And rising …

  10. If US were to pay all its $16trn debt with its gold, gold price would be … • $17 trn / 261 million =

  11. LOL

  12. If US were to pay all its $16trn debt with its gold, gold price would be … • $17 trn / 261 million = $65,134 per ounce

  13. In a world awash in unpayable debt … • Obsessed with growth • Where so-called austerity makes governments unpopular … and unelectable … • system that relies on ever-expanding debt to function and grow

  14. Target 5: Fiscal Sanity Returns to Govt. • Rates are too low, yet will stay low. • Policy-makers always take the path of least resistance, which means they will print. • Austerity a sham. TullettPrebonreport shows public spending has hardly been reduced. 1% down on last year. 3.4% UP on Labour’s last year. • Deficit only been cut through tax rises. • Do public and media want spending cuts?

  15. Cameron and Osborne’s Economic Policy

  16. Target 6 – UK Govt. buys

  17. Can you explain to me why, with currency wars, currency debasement, European turmoil, confiscation in Cyprus, economic and political uncertainty, North Korea etcetc, why gold is behaving like a risk asset ?

  18. Why is gold falling?

  19. Because it is.

  20. In March COT reported Gold short positions reached the highest level in over a decade • In early March Gold's Public Opinion reached one of the lowest levels in at least a decade • Last week COT reported Silver short positions reached the highest level in almost two decades • Last week Silver's Public Opinion reached one of the lowest levels in at least a decade

  21. Biggest lesson investing :

  22. Nobody knows anything

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