Logistics Estimate

1. Logistics Estimate

2. TLO and ELOs Terminal Learning Objective: Describe the key components of a logistics estimate Enabling Learning Objectives: Describe logistic estimates concepts and terms: • Describe the reason for using the logistics estimate • Describe what a logistics estimate is • Describe how the logistics estimates relates to MDMP • Describe the content of a logistics estimate • Apply the logistics estimate concept to a synchronization matrix

3. References • FM 5-0, Planning and Order Production, March 2010

4. Outline • Staff Estimates • Logistic estimates • Capabilities, requirements and shortfalls • Logistics estimate contents • Synchronization Matrix

5. Staff Estimates “A staff estimate is an assessment of the situation and an analysis of those courses of action a commander is considering that best accomplishes the mission. It includes an evaluation of how factors in a staff section’s functional area influence each COA and includes conclusions and a recommended COA to the commander.” FM 5-0

6. Why a Logistics Estimate? • Answers the question of supportability • Compares estimated requirements to capabilities • Determines shortfalls and excess capacity • Analyzes specific limitations/constraints • Does not address the concept of support but helps develop the concept of support • Considers quantifiable and intangible aspects of military operations • A logistics estimate should be developed for each separate course of action

7. A Logical and Systematic Approach to the Logistics Requirements for a Course of Action or Mission Logistics Estimate: What is it? Must Consider Every Logistics Aspect Continuously Done For Each Mission or Course of Action Capabilities Versus Requirements Equals Shortfalls/Excess (Impacts) Identify Possible Solutions (Recommendations) Accurate Current

8. Determine Capability/Capacity • Determine unit capabilities • CSS Battle Book (ST 101-6), current readiness posture, task organization… • Determine factors that will increase/decrease the capability (mission analysis) • weather, distance, operational rates… • Determine estimated capability for the operation

9. Determine Requirements • Must make valid assumptions about operation • Requirements Determination • Historical Data • OPLOG PLANNER • Logistics Estimation Workbook • Consumption data based on personal experience • Staff Coordination

10. Shortfalls/Excesses • Compare Requirements to Capabilities • Identify any Shortfalls/Excess Capacity • (Requirement minus capability) • Discuss any “critical” assumptions that if false may adversely impact the operation • Discuss any risks or logistics culminating points if identified

11. Running the Numbers(CL I- Example) • Water Requirement • 3600 x 6.0GPD = 21,600 GALs • 16 Bottles pmpd or 57,600 Bottles • 1.5 Litre = 4,800 CASES • 4,800 / 48 = 100 PALLETS • 100 x 3 DOS = 300 PALLETS • Food Requirement • 3600 x 3 Meals Per Day = 10,800 Meals • 10,800 x 3 DOS = 32,400 Meals • 32,400 / 12 per case = 2,700 CASES • 2,700 / 48 cases per pallet = 57 PALLETS Total requirement for CL I Food and Water is 357 pallets. • Capabilities • 1x Transportation Platoon (BSB, DC) with 20x HEMTT-LHS and 20x PLS Trailers • 40x flatracks, single stacked at 10 pallets per = 400 • Planning factor of 75% availability = 15x systems = 300 pallets. SHORTFALL? YES!!!! (57 pallets positions)

12. Logistics Estimate Contents • Facts and Assumptions • Specified, Implied, and Essential Tasks • Logistics Situation • Conclusion • Annexes A, B, C, D……..

13. Fact? or Assumption? • Facts and Assumptions • Lists all facts under the appropriate logistics function headings or logical headings. • Lists all “critical” assumptions used in the logistics estimate process. Assumptions often have to be proved or disproved at a later time. • Do not assume the problem away unrealistically.

14. Example: Facts and Assumptions

15. Specified, Implied, and Essential Tasks • Specified and Implied tasks • Ensures the logistics estimate includes all known specified and implied tasks • Listed by operational phase • It should identify which tasks are essential for the operation’s success

16. Example: Specified, Implied, and Essential Tasks

17. The Analysis Usually by CSS Functions A brief paragraph on the shortfalls of the comparison between the estimate and the capabilities Details of the comparison are moved to a supporting annex This paragraph could offer potential solutions or “what if discussions” but should not be the concept of support Logistics Situation Can include other paragraphs as situation dictates. Example: Contractors, Labor, Facilities, ……….

18. Example: Logistics Situation • Fuel. (See Annex C) Based on estimates, the BSB will arrive on Objective SNAKE with unit assets 100% full of fuel and BSB tanker assets at 50%. The HBCT will require 85,000 gallons to top off their tankers within 6 hours of securing objective SNAKE. The CSSB will require 120,000 gallons of JP8 to top off its FSSP within 24 hours of securing Objective SNAKE. A rail line exists in the AO vicinity Objective SNAKE and fuel can be moved by rail…………….

19. Conclusion • Must answer two questions: • Is the mission logistically supportable? • Yes or • Yes with concerns/issues • What are the major logistics concerns? • Should address the logistics culminating point, if one exists

20. Annexes • Annexes include all number crunching and supporting details that support the estimated requirements and capabilities. • There should be a detailed discussion of all shortfalls/excess capacities identified in the number crunching process. • Show your work ---- Details! • Don’t mix apples and oranges! Internal (S4) vs. External (SPO)

21. Annexes: Recommended Format • Capabilities • Requirements • Shortfalls/excess capacities • Limitations/constraints • Recommendations Normally by CSS Function

22. Personnel Estimate • Purpose – predict losses and how losses impact an operation • Some key areas: • Medical evacuation and hospitalization • Unit-strength maintenance • Replacements • Soldiers’ readiness • Organizational climate • Cohesion • Discipline, law and order

23. Planning Considerations Hey SPO, the old-man says he wants to feed the troops a steak dinner before we cross the LD! You have come to the right man, here’s what we need to do!

24. How do you define acceptable?

25. General Supplies • Capability is measured in Short Tons (ST) • Capability: 1 DS Supply Company can receive, store, and issue 34 ST of Class II per day (CSS Battle Book) • Requirement measured in “Days of Supply” • Requirement: Class II stockage objective is 3 DOS • If -1 DOS is 13 short tons (based on estimate) • Then -3 DOS is 39 short tons • Identify DS vs. GS requirements • Result • Capability minus Requirement (34 – 39 = -5) • Shortfall of 5 ST handling capability a day • Recommendation: • Work harder (slow the Earth’s rotation so 1 day is 28 hours long) • Reduce requirement (lower stockage objective)

26. Rations: Policy: Three “quality” meals per Soldier per day Measured in Short Tons/cases/pallets Requisition: Based on “Strength Report” Supply point distribution Ice: A must for perishables Ration vs. Issue cycle Ration -- M/M/M Issue – number of rations issued at one time General Supplies: Class II, III(P), IV, VI, IX Requisition: Demand Supported Measured in Short Tons Supply point distribution Class IX: Hard to forecast – but it must be considered Class IV: Engineers often establish forward supply points (EFSP) Transportation intensive General Supplies

27. Fuel: Based on “forecast” Goal: Top off every vehicle fuel tank and fuel tanker daily Measured in gallons Limiting factors: Slosh rate Trafficability Dedicated transportation Ammunition: Based on: User defined requirements Continuous fill & refill Supply Rates: RSR vs. CSR Measured in Short Tons Dedicated transportation Consumption rates vary: Attack vs. Defend Deliberate vs. Hasty Don’t forget about Engineers (mines & demolitions) Fuel and Ammunition

28. Laundry & Bath: Sustainment Bde provides Hospitals are prime customer Mortuary Affairs: Found at Corps level No stacking of remains Requires refrigeration and transportation Water Production: Bulk: Measured in gallons (ST 101-6 planning factors) Requires SMFT bags or tanker Found in BSBs Bottled measured in ST Food Preparation: Organic at unit level Requires refrigeration Field Services

29. Personnel Attached to the Sust Bde and operate throughout the AO Replacements: Training (Wpns Qual, theater specific) Transportation Housing (tents, cots) Feeding Security Finance Attached to the Sust Bde and operate throughout the AO Finance Support Teams will be sliced to each division Personnel & Finance

30. Recovery Centralized locations (Maintenance Control Points) Evacuation direction Priority of repairs Priority of units Right MOS with tools, parts, training, supervision and time to accomplish the repair Every unit needs field level maintenance which may not be organic Coordination for TACOM and AMC LARs to come forward on the battlefield Repairing warranted items (Contractor requirements) Maintenance

31. Transportation • DS/GS Transportation Units: • Cargo, POL, Water, & PLS • MSR identification • Movement Control vs. Movement Operations • Throughput – exception based • Weight vs. Cube • Ground – Army has theater-wide responsibility • Air – rotary vs. fixed wing • Rail – cargo and fuel (liquid) • Sea – coastal (LOTS) and inland (rivers)

32. Distribution Requirements

33. Who Bus FMTV S&P PLS Replacements X X RTDs X X LT/ABN Troops X X Human Remains X X X EPW X X X Displaced Civilians X X X Personnel Transportation

34. Medical Treatment (Area Support): Role I & II (DS) Forward Surgical Teams (FST) 1 per Division (attached to a BSMC) 10 patients a day Hospitalization: RoleIII & IV (GS) CSH 1 per Division (MSC attached to a SUS BDE) Augmentation teams (as required) Transportation of Return to Duty (RTD) Soldiers Evacuation & Regulating Air vs. Ground Convoys & Clearing Stations Logistics/Class VIII Distribution Transportation Combat Stress Control Dental Services Medical Laboratory Services Preventive Medicine Veterinary Services Force Health Protection

35. Consumption Tendencies Consumption: - Increases - Decreases C – Remains Constant

36. Summary Estimates: • Provide an accurate and current assessment of the CSS situation (capabilities of all affected units) • Analysis of how CSS factors affect mission accomplishment (capability - requirement = shortfall/excess) • Contain conclusions & recommendations of mission support feasibility (ways to overcome shortfall or maximize excess) • Illustrate how supply, transportation, services, maintenance, labor, facilities, and construction effect various COAs • Require continuous update as situations change Help Wargame the Operation Help Develop the Concept of Support

37. CSS Synchronization Matrix Considerations

38. Logistical Triggers • Trigger = an event or time oriented criteria used to initiate planned actions • Example: • Trigger: when the lead element of the 1-66 CAB crosses PL Atlanta, the convoy departs from LSA Wabash • Event: 10 configured loads of CL IV being delivered to the objective • Benefits: Not tied to a specific time so if a unit is late or early the resupply will depart at the right time, regardless.

39. Logistical Triggers

40. QUESTIONS?