Understanding vulnerability in your area

1. Sarah Lindley, University of Manchester Understanding vulnerability in your area Sept 13th 2012

2. Vulnerability • Vulnerability is a matter of how external stresses impact on well-being. An individual or group is of greater vulnerability if they are less able to respond to stresses placed on well-being. • The central question: how is vulnerability distributed across different individuals and groups? • However, the characterisation of vulnerability raises a number of prior questions: • How should well-being be conceptualised and measured? • What factors are relevant to understanding how external stresses convert into changes in well-being?

3. Socio-spatial vulnerability • Incorporates space and time with personal, social and environmental conversion factors • Geographical expression of the potential for an event to convert into the loss of wellbeing • Each of five dimensions reveals a different picture and requires different actions Ability to prepare Exposure (Enhanced) Sensitivity Adaptive capacity Ability to respond Ability to recover Vulnerability Exposure • But understanding related climate disadvantage requires consideration of the potential for contact with a flood or heat-related event too Climate disadvantage Hazard

4. Socio-spatial heat vulnerability domains

5. Socio-spatial flood vulnerability domains

6. Socio-spatial flood vulnerability in Scotland Overall, most extremely socially vulnerable locations are urban and there is a strong coastal component.

7. Dimensions of socio-spatial flood vulnerability in Scotland

8. Case study A –flood vulnerability • Individual indicators highlight the drivers of vulnerability relative to the average Scottish neighbourhood • Higher than average Sensitivity • Above average % >75 and ill-health • Higher than average enhanced exposure • more urban but just below average proportion of basement dwellings • Lower than average adaptive capacity • Fewer resources larger % HHs income deprived • Lack of control over home environment, around 48% social renters • Slightly > average % of newcomers • Possible insurance access higher % land area affected by historical flood events* • > average % lone parents with dependent children • Low private transport access but greater workplace proximity & less use of public transport * limitations apply in the historical flood event data

9. Case study B – flood vulnerability • Individual indicators highlight the drivers of vulnerability relative to the average Scottish neighbourhood • Higher than average Sensitivity • Above average % young children & ill-health • Higher than average enhanced exposure • Similar to previous example • Lower adaptive capacity • Fewer resources much larger % HHs income deprived • Lack of control over home environment, around 74% social renters • Slightly < average % of newcomers, less transience • Possible insurance access higher % land area affected by historical flood events* • 3 times % lone parents with dependent children • Double % disabled • Low mobility (73% no car/van)and high reliance on public transport for work (31%) * limitations apply in the historical flood event data

10. Key findings • Key socially vulnerable groups can be identified: • Poverty and deprivation  Strongly related to IMD • New residents • Mobility and access • Sensitivity • Enhanced exposure Evidence of joint socio-spatial vulnerabilities in the UK – up to 2/3 of the top 10% most socially vulnerable neighbourhoods were so for flood & heat

11. Flood disadvantage • Some areas have both high socio spatial vulnerability and high potential for hazard-exposure

12. UA/local authority breakdowns • Glasgow City • 42% Scotland’s total number of extremely socially flood-vulnerable neighbourhoods & 48% for heat. • Almost a third of all neighbourhoods within the city (31% heat; 28% flood). • Dundee City (17%), Inverclyde (14%), Moray (14%) and Edinburgh (11%) have the next largest proportions of their total number of neighbourhoods classed as extremely socially flood vulnerable • Aberdeen City, North Lanarkshire and Renfrewshire have >=4% of their neighbourhoods in each of the highest and lowest social flood vulnerability classes • This is without considering hazard-exposure in these areas

13. Heat disadvantage in Scotland • Glasgow’s high average socio-spatial heat vulnerability is coupled with tendency for higher temperatures • But • There is a differential in the tolerance of high temperatures from place to place

14. Case study – heat vulnerability • Individual indicators show vulnerability drivers relative to the average Scottish neighbourhood • Higher than average Sensitivity • Above average % <4 and ill-health • Higher than average enhanced exposure • Extremely high proportions >5th floor • Lower adaptive capacity • Fewer resources considerably larger % HHs income deprived • Potential for social isolation larger than average % of single pensioner HHs, twice % of lone parents with dependent children • very low access to private transport 84% no car/van, personal mobility issues 17% disabled • Health care Benefit from local hospital but slightly above average distance to local GPs

15. Adaptation measures Retrofitting, e.g. shading (louvres, etc.) e.g. flood gates, socket relocation Soft engineering - Increase vegetation/other impervious cover Insurance provision Defences Land use Buildings & housing Identify areas of transient population  information provision Adaptation Emergency services Social care Understanding pressure points Raising awareness of who to help and how Building social networks Community action Enhancing mobility Developed in collaboration with Aleks Kazmierczak, 2011