Understanding Community Vulnerability & Adaptation

1. Understanding Community Vulnerability & Adaptation

2. Community Vulnerability and Adaptation • Measuring and mapping vulnerability • Combined indicators • Risk/stress mapping • Spatial intersection/interaction • Examining adaptation strategies • Contingent behavior

3. Vulnerability: Existing Studies • Agreement on idea but variety of frameworks • Common approach • Aggregate measure (at community level) • A bundle of indicators (Cutter Model) • Demographic, economic, ethnic, political, cultural etc. • Common analysis tools: • Factor extraction, cluster analysis etc.

4. Vulnerability and Intervention Mapping:ESDA Approach • Measurement is not enough • Its about understanding • Where are the ‘hotspots’? • Are we serving the communities in need? • Where should we prioritize our efforts first?

5. Spatial non-stationarity: VPM modelWUI vs. rural (affluent vs. poor)

6. Issues with existing measures • Too general: • Vulnerable to what? • Weather station record vs. perceived effect • Assumption of homogenous effect: • Does poverty always necessarily translate to vulnerability? • Do income and ethnicity have the same marginal effect? • Can not establish causation: • little policy implication • Poor predictive power • Unit issue: • Areal unit (neighborhood) vs. social unit (i.e., fishermen)

7. Need for a specific/robust function of vulnerability • Specific (to hazard in context): • Vulnerability (drought, heat etc.) • DDs vs. avg. temp. • Weighted (for vulnerability factors): • Lit. review (significance, effect size etc.) V = f(p1.X1+p2.X2+p3.X3+….pn.Xn) • Comprehensive yet flexible: • Intervention variable

8. Example case • Broad context: Climate change • Specific context: vulnerability to heat effect • Heat waves, illness, death tolls • Socio-income factors • Resources (AC, housing condition etc.) • Intervention variables (i.e., neighborhood canopy coverage) • Policy question: • Will an investment in urban/community forestry programs result in reducing the vulnerability? • Could a roadside plantation bring a larger benefit than subsidy for AC installation?

9. Vulnerability and Adaptation:survey based approach • Change in resource condition • Knowledge, perception • Contingent behavior • IVI • How important? • Vulnerable? • Impacted yet?

10. Example context: Heat effect Highly important Slightly affected Not at all affected Not at all vulnerable Highly vulnerable Not at all important

11. Example context: Trout decline due to stream temp. Highly important Highly affected Not at all vulnerable Highly vulnerable Slightly affected Not at all important

12. Assessing adaptation • How will people adapt to change • List of potential reactions/strategies • Decision tree • Contingent reaction • Probability • Contingent impact

13. Understanding Adaptation: Contingent Behavior Approach Trout decline in GA site Continue fishing Stop fishing Continue fishing here Move to other places Hunting Hiking Biking Bird/nature viewing ATV Outdoor team sports Golf Target shooting Canoeing/Kayaking Motor boating Camping Fish for trout Fish for non-trout Other places in GA Out of state (TN, NC, SC) For Trout For non-trout Move to headwater Wait until water gets cooler Skip warmer months (July, Aug.) Make fewer trips

14. Understanding Community Vulnerability & Adaptation