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In crisis – Energy, the basis of civilisation

In crisis – Energy, the basis of civilisation. Population +6billion Doubles every 30 years. POPULATION – IS THERE NO END?. Relationship between Energy & Income. FERTILTY V WEALTH. THE NECESSITIES OF LIFE – WHAT WOULD LIFE BE LIKE WITHOUT CHEAP EASY TO USE ENERGY?. Energy Need Requirement

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In crisis – Energy, the basis of civilisation

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  1. In crisis –Energy, the basis of civilisation

  2. Population +6billion Doubles every 30 years

  3. POPULATION – IS THERE NO END?

  4. Relationship between Energy & Income

  5. FERTILTY V WEALTH

  6. THE NECESSITIES OF LIFE – WHAT WOULD LIFE BE LIKE WITHOUT CHEAP EASY TO USE ENERGY? • Energy Need Requirement • SHELTER HIGH • WARMTH HIGH • FOOD HIGH • WATER LOW • WASTE DISPOSAL MODERATE

  7. Coal production peaked in Britain in 1913 Oil started to replace coal in 1930- a liquid easier to use than a solid. GDP tied to energy use!

  8. World daily oil production –millions of barrels /day – Have we hit the peak or is it yet to come?

  9. FT 15 Sep 2011 Peak Oil concept- oil is a finite resource – sooner or later supplies will dwindle and demand will not be met or alternatives will replace oil.

  10. Colin Campbell shows the peak of oil production has passed. Others are not so sure! BUT GAS IS STILL TO PEAK

  11. Oil price 1861 - 2010 $100 Today oil price $125 $50 Price $/bbl $10 1950-59 2000-09 Light green oil price – money of the day Dark green reference 2010

  12. Why does Peak Oil matter? • Short answer – • when demand threatens to exceed supply the price goes up • and a world recession follows until demand drops. • With hardships for the many all round the world

  13. The Italian and Greek protests - just the beginning of more widespread unrest? Without cheap energy can weafford our present life style!

  14. International Energy Agency – World Energy Supply Forecast until 2030 Note fossil fuels predominate- over 75% in 2030

  15. Solving the crisis? Explore for and produce more oil and gas Produce more from existing fields Recruit bright young people to add brain power to finding and extracting the maximum amounts of oil and gas. Speed up the development of alternatives Change the way we live

  16. Can we achieve forecast?

  17. Explore for and produce more oil and gas

  18. 500m 2000m Water depth West Africa- deep water Many big oil fields

  19. Tullow and partners are spending about $1million every day drilling deepwater wells offshore West Africa with rigs like this

  20. The Arctic 6% of the globe with potential for 400 B bbls more oil, about 1/3 of existing reserves Problems – ice, ownership of territory, production systems

  21. Global warming is a reality- These young ladies are sitting on the North Pole (Photo Courtesy DMcInroy)

  22. Shale Gas – The Fuel of the future?

  23. 2. Produce more from existing fields

  24. Maximise oil recovery Use 4D – Repeat 3D surveys to find where oil is left in reservoir

  25. Maximise oil recovery Draugen Field Norway –courtesy Schlumberger

  26. Use miscible flood to recover over 15% more oil

  27. Tertiary Recovery in Texas. Reservoir is flooded with CO2 and 17% more oil recovered

  28. 3. Recruit bright young people Youth and brilliance plus age and experience is a winning formula to find more oil and gas

  29. Cutting from Financial Times 29 September 2011 Y

  30. Destination of Post Graduates from certain Universities in UK

  31. 4. Speed up the development of alternatives

  32. Y Cutting from the Financial Times 29 Sep 2011

  33. Change the way we live – isthere any hope? Newt Gingrich said avoid smaller cars because gun racks could not be fitted in them

  34. Conclusions • The crisis is now. It is not the banks fault. • We have run out of cheap energy. • We must produce more fossil fuels particularly oil to give time to develop cheap alternatives • We need more bright young people to work at discovering and producing oil and gas in difficult places • Or accept a lower standard of living and change the way we live. This may not happen without a revolution.

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