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TAG Meeting September 18, 2008

TAG Meeting September 18, 2008. NCEMC Office Raleigh, NC . TAG Meeting Agenda Introductions and Agenda – Rich Wodyka 2008 Study Scope & Status – Bob Beadle 2008 Study Preliminary Results – Mark Byrd Major Project Update – Mark Byrd Update on Regional Studies – Bob Beadle

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TAG Meeting September 18, 2008

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  1. TAG MeetingSeptember 18, 2008 NCEMC Office Raleigh, NC

  2. TAG Meeting Agenda • Introductions and Agenda – Rich Wodyka • 2008 Study Scope & Status – Bob Beadle • 2008 Study Preliminary Results – Mark Byrd • Major Project Update – Mark Byrd • Update on Regional Studies – Bob Beadle • TAG Work Plan Review – Rich Wodyka • TAG Open Forum – Rich Wodyka

  3. 2008 NCTPC StudyScope Bob Beadle North Carolina EMC

  4. Completed Steps and Status of the Study Process 1. Assumptions Selected 2. Study Criteria Established 3. Study Methodologies Selected 4. Models and Cases Developed 5. Technical Analysis Performed 6. Problems Identified and Solutions Developed 7. Collaborative Plan Projects Selected 8. Study Report Prepared

  5. Collaborative Study Process Study years Short term (5 yr) and long term (10 yr) base reliability analysis Alternate long term model scenarios Thermal power flow analysis Duke & Progress contingencies Duke & Progress monitored elements Internal lines Tie lines

  6. Study Input LSEs provided: Input for load forecasts and resource supply assumptions Dispatch order for their resources Interchange coordinated between Participants and neighboring systems

  7. Enhanced Transmission Access Requests TAG memo distributed on February 13th requesting input Deadline for input was February 27th No requests were received

  8. 2008 Study 2013 Summer base case (short term) 2018 Summer base case (long term) Additional sensitivities studied for 2018 model: Renewable Wind Scenarios-summer peak 250 MW along North Carolina coast 500 MW in North Carolina mountains (300 MW in CP&L Western area, 200 MW in Duke area)

  9. Eastern NC Wind Study Area

  10. Western NC Wind Study Area

  11. 2008 Study (con’t) NERC Reliability Standards Current standards for base study screening Selected a subset from proposed revisions to the NERC TPL Standards for sensitivity analysis, including paired elements between control areas Case results provide an idea of the order of magnitude impact on transmission plans SERC Requirements Individual company criteria/use of operational procedures

  12. Completed Steps and Status of the Study Process 1. Assumptions Selected 2. Study Criteria Established 3. Study Methodologies Selected 4. Models and Cases Developed 5. Technical Analysis Performed 6. Problems Identified and Solutions Developed 7. Collaborative Plan Projects Selected 8. Study Report Prepared

  13. Questions ?

  14. Mark Byrd Progress Energy Report on Preliminary Results of 2008 Study 14

  15. Outline of Results • Base Reliability Results • 2013 and 2018 • Planned new generation units • Sensitivity Cases • Wind • TPL Reliability Standards 15

  16. 2013S & 2018S Results • Base Reliability Screening • No new projects were identified within the Duke or Progress areas 16

  17. List of Units Included in Base Case Cliffside Coal – 880 MW Buck Combined Cycle – 620 MW Dan River Combined Cycle – 620 MW Richmond County Combined Cycle – 660 MW Wayne County CT – 160 MW Planned New Generation Units 17

  18. Sensitivity Cases – 2018S Results • Wind Resources • No significant impact in Duke or Progress • TPL Standard Review • Review of [N-2] contingencies underway (normal planning process is to N-1) • Standard still under development, NCTPC will provide update when impact is known 18

  19. Mark Byrd Progress Energy Major Project Update 19

  20. Comparison to Prior Collaborative Transmission Plans 20 20

  21. Import Scenarios 21

  22. Import Scenarios 22

  23. Import Scenarios • * Note: Projects were deferred due to new planned generation—Elon 100 kV line project is needed due to new generation at Dan River (along with other projects below the $10 M cutoff point).

  24. Questions ? 24 24

  25. Update on Regional Studies Bob Beadle North Carolina EMC

  26. SC Regional Transmission Planning Process NCTPC submitted (2) requests to study 600 MW transfer from Santee-Cooper to CPLE; 600 MW transfer from SCE&G to Duke; Deadline for request was the end of June- SCRTP selected (5) studies from among those received SCRTP accepted both requests made by the NCTPC, study process underway Provided Dispatch Data and Contingency Files;

  27. Southeast Inter-Regional Planning Process NCTPC submitted requests to study 3,000 MW from MISO to VACAR; 3,000 MW from SOCO to PJM (classic); 3,000 MW from PJM (classic) to SOCO; (16) requests submitted, (5) were selected at 7/10/08 meeting, preliminary study results expected by January 2009 Entergy to SOCO (2000 MW), PJM west to SOCO (2000 MW), SPP to SOCO (5000 MW), + last two requests above were selected for study by the SIRPP

  28. Other Regional Studies Transfer Capability Study: Florida/Southern Interface for 2008 Bulk Electric Supply Conditions (August 29, 2007) 2007 Summer MRO-RFC-SERC WEST-SPP Inter-Regional Transmission System Reliability Assessment 2007-2008 Winter MRO-RFC-SERC WEST-SPP Inter-Regional Transmission System Reliability Assessment 2007 Summer RFC-NPCC Inter-Regional Transmission System Reliability Assessment Final Report (June 2007) 2007-2008 Winter SERC EAST-RFC Inter-Regional Transmission System Reliability Assessment (November 2007)

  29. Other Regional Studies 2007 Summer SERC EAST-RFC Inter-Regional Transmission System Reliability Assessment (May 2007) SERC 2007 Summer Reliability Study of Projected Operating Conditions (May 2007) SERC 2007-2008 Winter Reliability Study of Projected Operating Conditions (November 2007) VACAR 2011 Summer Peak Reliability Study Final Report (April 2007) SERC Near-Term Study Group 2008 Summer Drought Study (January 2008) SERC Long-Term Study Group 2011 Summer Future Year Study (December 2007)

  30. Rich Wodyka - ITP 2008 TAG Work Plan Review

  31. 2008 TAG Work Plan January • 2007 STUDY REPORT • Receive final 2007 Study Report February • 2008 STUDY SCOPE • Receive 2008 Study Scope for comment • Review and provide comments to the OSC on the 2008 Study Scope including the Study Assumptions; Study Criteria; Study Methodology and Case Development • Receive request from OSC to provide input on proposed Enhanced Transmission Access scenarios and interfaces for study • Provide input to the OSC by 2/27 on proposed Enhanced Transmission Access scenarios and interfaces for study

  32. April- May • 2007 SUPPLEMENTAL REPORT • Receive the 2007 Supplemental Report TAG Meeting • Receive a progress report on the 2008 Planning study activities and results • Receive feedback from the OSC on what proposed Enhanced Transmission Access scenarios and interfaces will be included in the 2008 study • Receive presentation on the 2007 Supplemental Report and provide comments to OSC • 2007 SUPPLEMENTAL REPORT • Provide comments on the 2007 Supplemental Report • Receive final 2007 Supplemental Report

  33. June - September TAG Meeting • 2008 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION and SOLUTION DEVELOPMENT • TAG will receive a progress report from the PWG on the 2008 study • TAG will be requested to provide input by October 7th to the OSC and PWG on the technical analysis performed, the problems identified as well as proposing alternative solutions to the problems identified through the technical analysis • Receive update on the status of the major project upgrades in the current Collaborative Plan

  34. October - November • 2008 SELECTION OF SOLUTIONS • TAG will receive feedback from the OSC on any alternative solutions that were proposed by TAG members

  35. December 2008 STUDY REPORT • Receive and comment on final draft of the 2008 Collaborative Transmission Plan report TAG Meeting • Receive presentation on the draft report of 2008 Collaborative Transmission Plan • Provide feedback to the OSC on the 2008 NCTPC Process • Review and comment on the 2009 TAG Activity Schedule

  36. Develop Solutions Select Collaborative Plan Projects Prepare Study Report September October November December Remainder of 2008 Work Plan • Develop potential alternative solutions • Further testing & evaluation of solutions, as required • Estimate project costs & solutions • Compare all alternatives • Further testing & evaluation of solutions, as required • Select preferred solutions • PWG develops DRAFT Plan • Publish DRAFT Plan TAG Meetings • TAG review/comment

  37. Questions ?

  38. TAG Open Forum Discussion Comments or Questions ?

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