Proutist Economic Development Futures Thinking

1. Proutist Economic DevelopmentFutures Thinking Dada Maheshvarananda Dr. Michael Towsey  2004 Proutist Universal

2. Futures Thinking • A recent development in corporate planning • Origins in 1950s-60s – an alternative to traditional (military) command and control planning • Known as scenario planning • Attempt to cope with complexity and surprise in the modern world • Paralleled development of complex systems and chaos theory • First used commercially by Shell oil company during 1972 oil crisis • In 1980s-90s developed into Futures Thinking • "Futures" is plural to indicate there are many possible futures Proutist Universal

3. From Scenario Planning ... • Purpose is NOT to predict the future but to understand the possible alternatives • Understanding alternatives opens up choices and planning options • Psychology: if a possible scenario has previously been discussed it does not surprise • Successful scenario planning depends on non-traditional, imaginative thinking • Must dare to think the unexpected Proutist Universal

4. ... To Futures Thinking – 1990s • Traditional scenario planning tends to be passive • Attempts to anticipate the future but not to shape it • Futures thinking takes next step • Planners are asked to envisage their ideal world, then create strategies to realise that world • Psychology: as you think, so you become • An organisation or nation without a compelling vision of the future will decline • Traditional planning 3-5 years • Futures planning 5-50 years Proutist Universal

5. An example: Vision Brazil 2020 • September 2003, organised by Economic and Social Council • Chaired by Minister Tarso Genro • 200 participants from business, labour and civil society • Purpose: to envision Brazil in the year 2020 • To develop scenarios around the goal of sustainable development • E.g. "We are a nation without poverty in which education is a priority". Proutist Universal

6. Visioning the future • Business as usual • Collapse - catastrophe • Back to the past • Transformation Proutist Universal

7. Forces acting on the future Visions (pull) Future Traditions, habits (inertia) Events(push) Proutist Universal

8. Four levels of social analysis • Level 1 – Litany • day to day events • front page news • Level 2 – Social, cultural economic trends (social causes) • editorial content • TV documentaries • Level 3 – Structural analysis (discourse, worldview) • looks at: power relations, center-periphery • usually an emerging world view • Level 4 – Metaphor (and myth) • looks at macro-history, mythology, archetypes Proutist Universal

9. Causal layered analysis • A new futures research method • Its utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures • Challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down layers of analysis and is inclusive of different ways of knowing • http://www.metafuture.org/Articles/CausalLayeredAnalysis.htm Proutist Universal