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Navy League Sea-Air-Space Symposium. “Strategic Engagement and Maritime Diplomacy”. LtGen Richard F. Natonski USMC Deputy Commandant, Plans, Policies and Operations 19 March 2008. Unclassified. Mid-Range Threat Assessment.
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Navy League Sea-Air-Space Symposium “Strategic Engagement and Maritime Diplomacy” LtGen Richard F. Natonski USMC Deputy Commandant, Plans, Policies and Operations 19 March 2008
Unclassified Mid-Range Threat Assessment Future global threat environment will be characterized by the following drivers of instability: • Terrorism / Irregular Warfare • Ideological / Religious Extremism • Poorly / ungoverned spaces • Globalization • Economics / Poverty / Health Crisis • Natural Resource Competition (water, energy, etc.) • Science & Technology competition / advancements • Changing Demographics (“youth bulge”, aging populations, etc.) • Environmental Factors (climate change, natural disasters, etc.) • Crime US Military operations in the 21st Century will likely focus on neutralizing asymmetric threats 2
Unclassified Combatant Commander Requirements COCOM Demand Current Situation • Persistent engagement • Forward presence • Strategic Partnerships • capability & capacity building • Security • Partner Nation counterterrorism • capability / capacity • Coverage in ungoverned areas • Intelligence, Surveillance, • Reconnaissance (ISR) • CENTCOM focused • COIN specific training • Reduced forward presence • worldwide • Limited capacity for Security Cooperation (SC) operations • Reduced maritime connection • Unable to address many COCOM requirements • Degraded home station unit readiness Demand exceeds current supply of Marine forces 3
Unclassified xxx Crisis Response and Limited Contingency Ops Forcible Entry and Major Operations and Campaigns Through x III II MEF MEB MEU SC MAGTF Military Engagement, Security Cooperation, and Deterrence (Continuous through all phases) Security Cooperation MAGTF (Expanding Adaptable Force Employment Options) Expands MAGTF capabilities in the ‘lower end’ of the expeditionary force spectrum to increase and sustain forward presence, while retaining ability to reaggregate and reorient for more traditional missions. Security Cooperation MAGTF (SC MAGTF) – Task organized, but enduring in nature with specialized enabling / shaping capabilities, operating from mix of amphibs, HSVs, MSC ships and forward bases to provide forward presence. 4
Unclassified III III III PCS (2) UDP (3) II Send in the Marines (Marine Operations for Shaping and Deterrence) • Security Cooperation MAGTF • Task organized around infantry battalion • Full-spectrum capable, optimized for security cooperation • Deploys to Forward Operating Site, then as scalable detachments throughout AOR • Available for reaggregation and redeployment to meet contingencies • Force Planning Construct: • 9 Inf Bns forward (3 MEU/3 UDP/3 SC MAGTF) • 18 Inf Bns conducting full spectrum training • 27 Inf Bns Total (202K) operating on 1:2 dwell • 9 RC Bns in operational reserve MARFOREUR MARFORNORTH MARCENT MARFORPAC MEU GFS 1 SC MAGTF MEU MPS SC MAGTF MPS MEU GFS 4 GFS 2 SC MAGTF GFS 5 GFS 3 MARFORSOUTH MPS MARFORAFRICA Supports the Geographic CCDRs through: • Persistent forward presence • Balanced MEFs • Task organized MAGTFs building partner capacity while retaining full spectrum capability • Global Fleet Stations (GFS): • Maritime security cooperation • Operationalizes Naval Operations Concept • Sea-based naval headquarters • Minimal footprint 5 Creative force employment and increased capacity enables global sustained forward naval presence