Agri Outlook 2009 The Challenge of Change Summary and Conclusions

1. Agri Outlook 2009The Challenge of ChangeSummary and Conclusions By Herman van Schalkwyk 1 October 2009

2. The Impact of the current politcal landscape on South African Agriculture 2010Dr. Pieter Mulder • Acknowledged the growing importance of commercial farmers in agriculture • Improvement of South Africa’s trade relations • Foreseen challenges • Disregard for the role of agriculture • Perceptions with regard to land • Use of agricultural expertise • Stereotyping and generalising • International trade liberalization

3. Turning strategies for Local Government as a vehicle for local developmentDr. Stef Coetzee • Deepening local government crisis • The promise of our constitution and the rainbow nation • Development at the local development cutting edge of development • Local government model has not facilitated cooperation • Civil society role • Local economic development inhibited and investment climate suffer • Turning strategy needed • New inclusive form of cooperation at the local level required • Crisis complex and integrated

4. Models for development Agriculture: Risk SharingDr. Moji Mogari • Develop an appropriate funding model • Pre-screen the beneficiaries properly • Develop a commercial operational model and not a social one • Be realistic about budget projections and outcomes • Manage expectations • Have a representative management structure

5. Economic Outlook 2010Mike Schussler • This year will be very difficult especially for our manufacturing and mining companies. • Will be worse than many forecasts. • But we are near the bottom already. • Recession lasted longer but turn around probably around now. • 2010 will be better (Slow but better) but 2011 should be much closer to a normal year.

6. Land Reform 2010 and the Zimbabwe issueMr. Deon Theron • The results • The land is dead • No property rights and no incentive to invest. • No collateral value. No access to private finance. • Government broke no access to public finance. • Donor support conditional. • No incentive for farmers to practice sustainable agriculture or for capital development. • Farming skills lost and not transferred to new land holders. NO EMPOWERMENT!!!

7. Farming opportunities on AfricaDr. Theo de Jager • Dawn of Africa = Opportunities • Challenges of farming in the Republic of Congo: • Infrastructure • Markets • Safety/stability • Language • Corruption • Labour

8. Creeping Expropriation?Mr. Stephen Hoffmann Expropriation of property rights • Water • Minerals • Land • Firearms • Murdering of farmers

9. Opportunities 2010 for Intra-Africa Trade – The Freshmark ExperienceDr. Johan van Deventer Challenges • “Know how” and entrepreneurs • Infrastructure (roads, harbours, electricity etc.) • Organised and reliable marketing channels (e.g. Fresh Produce Markets) • Organised agricultural sector • Supportive infrastructure e.g. SENWES, KAAP AGRI • Technical support/Research (ARC) • State Departments (difficult/slow) • “Tomorrow is another day” • Contra productive regulations + laws • In other words: “YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN”

10. Practical perspective from a producer on Agricultural Development 2010Mr. Bully Bothma • Producer environment • Physical environment • Profitability • Input costs • Output prices • External factors • Land reform • Government policies • Funds for agriculture • Security • Infrastructure

11. How the IDC can stimulate SA AgricultureMr. Rian Coetzee • Vision – To be “the primary driving force of commercially sustainable industrial development and innovation to the benefit of South Africa and the rest of the African continent” • Mission - Primary objectives are to contribute to the generation of balanced, sustainable economic growth in Africa and to the economic empowerment of the South African population • Objective - Supporting industrial development capacity and promoting entrepreneurship

12. How the IDC can stimulate SA AgricultureMr. Rian Coetzee (cont.) • Outcomes • Sustainable employment • Regional equity • Industrialisation in the rest of Africa • Environmentally sustainable growth • Local beneficiation • Growing sectoral diversity • Growing SME sector • BBBEE • New entrepreneurs entering the economy • Growing export sector

13. Price formation in the wheat market: a producer’s perspectiveMr. Hennie Visser • ‘N “SAFEX-AFGELEIDE” PRODUSENTE PRYS, MOET DIE SAFEX-PRYS WAT GEKONTRAKTEER IS, MIN DIE PROPORSIONELE WERKLIKE VERVOERKOSTE VANAF DIE LEWERINGSPUNT TOT BY DIE EINDBESTEMMING VAN DIE BETROKKE KORING WEES.

14. Integrated Agricultural Commodity Outlook for 2010Mr. Ernst Janovsky • Macro economic trends – World social spend supports agriculture • Agricultural insights - Golden days for agriculture is back • Africa the new frontier – Food security • Outlook for selected commodities is expected to be positive

15. Land Bank: Committed to focus on setting the benchmark in SA Agriculture 2010 Mr. Lebogang Serithi • Moving up the value chain • Premium provider of Agri-finance solutions • Improve customer services • Customer driven products

16. Competition issues and debate on controversial food pricesDr. Simon Roberts • High concentration levels prevail, barriers to entry, poor competitive outcomes • Need to: • Undermine cartels, opportunities for new entry • Examine the role of industry associations • Increase agricultural production by addressing effects of anti-competitive conduct on costs • Improve understanding across govt and relevant public institutions

17. Investment opportunities and trends in the SADEC basic food industryMr. Pieter Esterhuysen Reasons to invest in SADC • The attitudes of Governments towards agriculture and food security are becoming more positive • English as language is understood in most of Southern Africa • SADC region is relatively close to South Africa • As soon as more grain becomes available in Africa, aid related food supplies will be procured locally • The need for imported grain from South Africa will decrease. Involvement in Africa can replace the resultant loss in income • Areas such as Latin America and Eastern Europe are less attractive mainly because of the distance from South Africa and the huge size of resources demanded for entry • Limited competition in the region

18. Weather Outlook 2010Mr. Johan van den Berg • El Nino effect – dry/hot conditions November-January • High probability to last until at least March/April 2010 • Turning point – February 2010 (early turning point is favourable) • Sideways in August/September – inhibit probabilities somewhat

19. Conclusion • Issues that have implications for the future: • Our political environment and the accountability of people in leadership positions • Zimbabwe • Policy development • The Macro-economic environment • Agricultural Development in Africa • Rules of doing business • Formation of prices • Anti-competitive behaviour

20. Conclusion cont… • A call for cooperation at all levels • Develop trust and relations • Improve competitiveness • Invest in capacity and research • Take the opportunities that Africa offers • Develop structures to analyse and take opportunities • Acknowledge the role that Agribusiness can play in agricultural development and create systems to enhance this