Growth Targets for 2013-2014

1. Growth Targets for 2013-2014 October 24, 2012 Jonathan Wiens, PhD Accountability and Reporting Oregon Department of Education

2. Growth Model Overview

3. Oregon’s Growth Model • Uses the Colorado Growth Model. • Includes all students having two consecutive years of standard OAKS assessments, regardless of whether or not they are meeting standard. • A student’s growth is compared to the growth of other students in the state having the same prior test scores (“Academic Peers”) • Student Growth is expressed as a percentile. A growth percentile of 75 would mean the students growth was as high or higher than 75 percent of his/her academic peers. • Computes Growth Targets – growth percentiles that put a student on track to be at standard in three years.

4. Growth Model Points to Remember • Growth is based on comparing a student to his or her Academic Peers, who are students with the similar test score histories. • Growth of low performing students is compared to that of other low performing students in the state. • Growth of high performing students is compared to that of other high performing students in the state. • Growth model applies to students in grades 4 to 8, and 11. • Uses up to four years of test data for each student.* * - High school students use only the 7th, 8th and 11th grade scores to evaluate growth.

5. Growth and School Accountability • Schools are given “Levels” in reading and math growth: • Level 5: Schools with high growth • Level 4: Average to above average growth • Level 3: Below average, but not low, growth • Level 2: Low growth • Level 1: Very low growth • Reading and math growth are combined into a Growth Rating.

6. School Growth Ratings • School accountability uses the median growth percentile. • Median growth is the “middle” growth percentile. • This is the “typical” growth at the school. • We also report the median target growth percentile. • A school has “On Track” growth if the median growth percentile is as high as the median target percentile. • “On Track” growth indicates that a typical student is meeting his/her growth target. • Requirements to reach Level 5, Level 4, etc., are lower for schools with “On Track” growth.

7. Growth Example - Elementary Here is an example of how growth is reported on the School Ratings detail reports. Subgroup growth is also reported.

8. Growth Percentiles in Oregon

9. Sample Growth Percentiles This sample shows various growth percentiles. Note that the middle four students all had the same starting point in 5th grade. The students in red are shown to emphasize that growth is evaluated relative to academic peers, not on absolute gains in test scores.

10. SGPs – Higher Order Growth This data show how 3 years of test scores can affect growth percentiles. Data are taken from Math growth in 2011-12.

11. Growth Targets for School Accountability

12. Growth Targets • Growth targets are forward looking. • They estimate the growth necessary to meet standard in three more years, or by grade 11. • Targets are provided both as percentiles and as RIT scores. • The target RIT score represents the typical score attained by students who grew to standard in the past. • The target percentile should be viewed as an estimate of the difficulty of attaining the goal of proficiency in three years.

13. Target Growth This data show how using three years of test scores affect growth percentiles and create a more complete view of growth. Data are taken from 5th grade Math growth in 2011-12.

14. Growth Targets, continued The data below shows how important it is to remember that the growth data is based on “academic peers,” who are students with similar score histories.

15. 2012-13State Level Data

16. Reading Growth by Subgroup Growth does vary by subgroup, but by far less than status varies. The differences below amount to only one or two RITs points.

17. Mathematics Growth by Subgroup Growth does vary by subgroup, but by far less than status varies. The differences below amount to only one or two RITs points.

18. Interpreting Growth at the Student Level

19. Typical Growth • While growth targets are used for school accountability, it is important to remember that growth for individual students should be a much more nuanced conversation. • To help teachers and parents interpret growth, we classify growth in one of three categories: • Low Growth: growth below the 35th percentile. • Typical Growth: growth between the 35th and 65th percentile. • High Growth: growth above the 65th percentile. • At this point we have not had the chance to produce individual student growth reports, but if we did …

20. Student Growth Report (forthcoming) • This is a sample that would show (in graphic format) the data you have access to today. • Typical Growth: growth between the 35th and 65th percentile. • High Growth: growth above the 65th percentile. • At this point we have not had the chance to produce individual student growth reports, but if we did …

21. Growth Goals • A thorough discussion of individual growth goals should take into account: • The growth target (i.e., target for proficiency in three years) • The Low, Typical, and High growth ranges. • Remember that student growth occurs in a range and that, by definition: • about one third of students are likely to show low growth; • about one third of students are likely to show typical growth; and • about one third of students are likely to show high growth. • For students well above standard the “target” represents fairly low growth. • For students well below standard the “target” represents high growth.

22. Growth Goals, continued • Even though average growth does differ slightly by subgroup, the ranges for low, typical, and high growth are still reasonable, regardless of subgroup. • However, the fact that the English Learner (EL) and Students with Disabilities (SWD) subgroups have lower growth shows that the Oregon Growth Model is not a true value-added model. • Teachers with high percentages of EL or SWD students might want to take this into account when setting growth goals using this growth model.

23. Review of Data File • Includes all students enrolled in grades 3 to 8 on May 1, 2013. • Includes resident school and district from May 1. • Includes resident and attending school and district from SSID (as of October 23). • Extended assessment are not included. Students taking extended assessments will not have any growth or target data. • A simplified table of growth targets is also available at: http://www.ode.state.or.us/search/page/?id=3797

24. How to get your data • Contact your ESD Partners: http://www.ode.state.or.us/wma/teachlearn/testing/oaks/esdpartners1314.pdf • Individual school requests are discouraged, it creates a huge workload issue. • Instead, District Test Coordinators should contact the ESD Partners to request data. • DTCs can then send the data to internal district staff. • Remember: these files contain FERPA protected data!

25. Contact Information and Links • Main report card page: http://www.ode.state.or.us/search/page/?id=1786 • Details on priority, focus, and model schools: http://www.ode.state.or.us/search/page/?id=3742 • Report Cards and Report Card ratings details: http://www.ode.state.or.us/data/reportcard/reports.aspx • Repot Card resources: http://www.ode.state.or.us/search/page/?id=3881 • Contacts: • Jon Wiens: email: jon.wiens@state.or.us phone: 503-947-5764 • Josh Rew: email josh.rew@state.or.us phone: 503-947-5845