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气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍 Presentation on Physical Impacts Work

气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍 Presentation on Physical Impacts Work. Adapting to Climate Change in China: China-UK-Swiss Partnership. Yinlong XU （ 许 吟隆 ） Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Beijing, China 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所

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气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍 Presentation on Physical Impacts Work

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  1. 气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍Presentation on Physical Impacts Work Adapting to Climate Change in China: China-UK-Swiss Partnership • Yinlong XU （许 吟隆） • Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture • Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) • Beijing, China • 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所 • Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Tel & Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 • E-mail: xuyl@ami.ac.cn • 3 Mar. 2010

  2. 内容Content • 工作进展 Progress • 国家层面工作计划 National-level work plan • 地方层面工作计划 Province-level work plan • 未来工作 Future work

  3. 工作进展Progress

  4. 国家层面工作计划National-level work plan • 农业（中国农业科学院） Agriculture (CAAS) • 草地畜牧业（中国农业大学） Grassland-livestock (CAU) • 水资源（南京水利科学研究院） Water resources (NHRI)

  5. 农业（中国农业科学院）：Agriculture (CAAS) （1）已经发生的气候变化影响的评价 Phase Ⅰ: Current impact and assessment on climate change 目标1：气候变化历史影响的检测 Objective 1: Detect the historical impact of climate change. 目标2：分析已经发生的气候变化与农业气象灾害损失、水资源、种植制度调整的关系 Objective 2: Analyze the relationship between climate changes which had happened and the loss of agro-meteorological disasters, water resources, cropping systems.

  6. 目标3：评估已经采取的适应气候变化措施 Objective 3: Assess adaptation measures which have been taken to adapt to climate change in the past. 目标4：农业灾害风险处置措施评价及选择 Objective 4: Assessment and adoption of agricultural disaster risk disposal measures. 目标5：评估农业对已发生气候变化影响的脆弱性 Objective 5: Evaluate the vulnerability about impact of agriculture on climate change.

  7. （2）未来影响的评估 Phase Ⅱ :Impact and assessment for the future 目标1：评估模型的验证 Objective 1: Validation of Assessment Model. 目标2：未来气候变化条件下中国种植区域与主要作物种植界限的变化及种植结构调整战略 Objective 2: Under the conditions of climate change in the future, the changes in crop planting area and main crops planting boundaries and the strategy of planting structural adjustment in China.

  8. 目标3：未来气候变化对中国主要粮食作物的影响评估 Objective 3: Assessment that climate change in the future impacts on major food crops in China. 目标4：风险与脆弱性评估 Objective 4: Assessment on risk and vulnerability. 目标5：农业灾害风险管理措施评估及建议 Objective 5: Assessment and proposition on disposal measures of agricultural disaster risk.

  9. （3）适应措施和政策建议 Phase Ⅲ: Adaptation and policy recommendations 目标1：我国农业适应气候变化空间区域划分 Objective 1: Space division about agricultural adaptation to climate change in China. 目标2：技术清单编制 Objective 2: Preparation of technical-list. 目标3：农业适应气候变化的政策建议 Objective 3: Policy recommendations about agricultural adaptation to climate change. 目标4：省级适应框架的完善 Objective 4: Complete the adaptation framework of provincial level.

  10. 草地畜牧业（中国农业大学） Grassland-livestock (CAU) 目标1：气候变化对草地畜牧业影响的检测 Objective 1 Detecting the impact of climate change on grassland and livestock husbandry. 目标2：全国层面的草地畜牧业气候变化影响评估模型校验 Objective 2: Model development for assessment of the effects of climate change on pasture livestock production nation wide. 目标3：未来气候对草地畜牧业的影响与风险评估 Objective 3: Assessment of risk of future climate on pasture livestock production. 目标4：提出草地畜牧业适应气候变化的国家战略和对策 Objective 4: Provide national strategies of adaptation to climate change in pasture livestock production.

  11. 水资源（南京水利科学研究院）Water resources (NHRI) 目标1：完善全国层面的分布式气候变化对水资源影响评估模型 Objective 1: Consummate China-wide assessment model for climate change impact on water resources 目标2：检测气候变化对典型流域实测径流量变化的影响，综合分析过去适应极端干旱、洪涝灾害的经验 Objective 2: Detect the effect of climate change on actual measurement of stream flow in typical watershed; comprehensively analyze the experience of past adapting to extreme drought and floods 目标3：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估 Objective 3：Assess the potential impact of climate change on future water resources over China 目标4：水利适应气候变化的国家战略和对策 Objective 4: Address national adaptation strategy of water industry to climate change.

  12. 地方层面工作计划Province-level work plan • 宁夏 Ningxia • 农业 Agriculture • 水资源 Water Resources • 适应技术示范 Adaptation case study • 内蒙 Inner Mongolia • 草地畜牧业 Grassland-livestock • 水资源 Water resources • 适应案例研究 Adaptation case study

  13. 省份1：内蒙古 Province 1： Inner Mongolia Ⅰ ：草地畜牧业（内蒙古农业大学） Ⅰ ：Grassland-livestock (IM Agricultural University) • 目标1：气候变化对内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响评价 Objective 1 Climate change impacts risk assessment for whole Inner Mongolia grassland-livestock 目标2：未来气候变化情景下内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响预估 Objective2 Assess the CC risk impact on grassland-livestock for whole Inner Mongolia grassland under the future climate scenarios

  14. Ⅱ ：水资源（内蒙古水利局） Ⅱ ：Water Resources(Hydrological Bureau of Inner Mongolia) 目标1：气候变化对内蒙古水资源的影响评估 Objective 1 Detection of climatic change impacts on Inner Mongolia water resource 目标2：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估 Objective 2 Future risk assessment 目标3：不同草原类型区适应案例研究 Objective 3 Case study of different grassland type region about water resources

  15. Ⅲ ：适应案例研究 Ⅲ ：Typical Case Study for Adaptation Recommendations 目标1：典型草原草地畜牧业区——锡林浩特 Objective 1 Typical steppe grassland and animal husbandry area – Xilinhaote 目标2：浑善达克沙地草地农业区——多伦 Objective 2 Sandy grassland agricultural area - Doron 目标3：荒漠草原农牧交错带——四子王旗 Objective 3 Ecotone of desert and grassland - Siziwangqi

  16. 省份2：宁夏 Province 2： Ningxia Ⅰ ：农业（宁夏气象研究所） Ⅰ ：Agriculture (Ningxia Meteorological Research Institute) • 目标1：历史气候变化对宁夏农业影响的检测 Objective 1Analyze the impact of present climate change on agriculture in Ningxia • 目标2：未来影响的评估。评估未来气候变化条件下对宁夏农业生产的可能影响和脆弱性，考虑极端气候事件（侧重在干旱、高温等）的影响，进行农业综合适应气候变化措施的示范和效果评估，从农业气象灾害的角度提出对农业生产有指导意义的适应对策建议。 Objective 2 Assess the future agricultural production risk of climate change. Assess the possible impact and vulnerability of climate change on agricultural production in Ningxia, in terms of extreme climate events, especially drought and hot temperature events.; demonstrate and evaluate the comprehensive technologies to adapt to climate change; provide indicative suggestion in adapting to agro-meteorological hazards. 目标3：气候变化综合对策分析 Objective 3Comprehensive agricultural adaptation recommendations to climate change

  17. Ⅱ ：水资源（宁夏水利局） Ⅱ ：Water Resources (Hydrological Bureau of Ningxia) 目标1：构建全国层面的分布式气候变化对水资源影响评估模型 Objective 1 Build distributed assessment model in Ningxia 目标2：气候变化对历史水资源的影响检测 Objective 2 Risk assessments for the main rivers in NX 目标3：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估 Objective3 Water balance assessment for case study area and policy recommendations

  18. Ⅲ ：适应案例研究 Ⅲ ：Typical Case Study for Adaptation Recommendations 目标1：主要研究气候变暖条件下推行冬小麦复种牧草、实现“一年两季”、提高冷凉山区农业生产效益的可行性 Objective 1 Under the condition of climate warming, Mainly to study the implementation of revaccination of winter wheat and pasture, to achieve "one-year two seasons," and promote the feasibility of agricultural production efficiency in cold mountain areas. 目标2：主要进行气候变暖条件下中晚熟玉米新品种引进与示范栽培 Objective 2 Under the condition of climate warming, mainly to introduce and cultivate new varieties of late-maturing maize 目标3：主要进行适应气候变暖条件下中晚熟马铃薯新品种引进与示范栽培 Objective 3 Under the condition of adaptation to climate warming, mainly to introduce and cultivate new varieties of late-maturing potatoes. 目标4：主要进行豆科牧草（紫花苜蓿、红豆草）丰产及养畜利用技术示范研究 Objective 4 Mainly to study the high yield of leguminous forage (alfalfa, Onobrychis) and usage of technology in livestock

  19. What’s new relative to the former projects Policy-oriented Question-based From runoff to hydrology concentration and routing Typical regions highlighted More practical for case study Combination for the method of top-down and bottom-up Less dependence on models

  20. National-level Policy Recommendations National-level Risk Assessment Provincial-level Policy Recommendations Provincial-level Risk Assessment Local Adaptation Policy Recommendations Case Study Areas

  21. Shortcomings and the next-step work Still in draft Lack of requirements from stakeholders Data monopoly for water resources The interaction between agriculture/grassland and water resources not highlighted Detailed task assignments Dialogues with the local authorities

  22. 谢谢！ Thank you!

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