Alternative Future Scenario Analysis

1. Alternative Future Scenario Analysis March 14, 2018

2. TransAction and Scenario Analysis TransAction is the multimodal long-range transportation plan for Northern Virginia • Seeks to understand the sensitivity of project performance under a variety of alternative future scenarios • Not attempting to accurately predict the ‘correct’ future or identify a preferred future scenario 2

3. Future Scenarios: Elements and Trends • Technology Elements and Behavioral Trends: • Connected and Automated vehicles • Shared travel • Demographic characteristics (e.g., millennials, boomers) • Development patterns • Activity patterns (e.g., telecommuting, internet shopping) • Information / management technologies • Policy and legal evolution • Economic factors • Freight and goods movement 3

4. https://www.its.dot.gov/communications/image_gallery/image26.htmhttps://www.its.dot.gov/communications/image_gallery/image26.htm Scenario A Technology makes driving easier Significant evolution in vehicle and/or system information and management technologies Travel Impacts Less congestion More efficient vehicle travel More first/last mile trip and short trip options Autonomous vehicles Shared travel alternatives (e.g., Uber/Lyft) Traveler Information (e.g., Google/Waze maps and real time information about routing and congestion) System management technologies (e.g., dynamic response to congestion and weather conditions) Source: U.S. DOT Model Assumptions Long distance trips +5%, short urban trips +25% Highway Travel Freeway/expressway capacity +50%, speed limits Major arterial capacity +15%, speeds +5% Value of drive time -50%, parking cost -50%, terminal time -50% Transit Access Max walk to Rail 1.5 miles and express bus park-n-ride 1.0 mile Walk speed 5 mph, walk > 0.5 miles = +5 minute wait + vehicle trip Station parking capacity +50%, parking cost -50% Park-n-ride drive cost +50%, time value -50%, wait time +5 minutes

5. http://www.elpadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Urban-Life.jpghttp://www.elpadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Urban-Life.jpg Scenario B Changes in travel behavior Urban Living + Mixed Use Centers Telecommuting Options Increase in Fuel +Travel Costs • Less vehicle travel • Shorter trips • Less peak period travel • More first/last mile and short trip options • More delivery vehicles Travel Impacts Significant changes in trip making Millennials/Boomers have a preference for urban living and mixed use activity centers – resident life style changes Workers are granted more flexible work hours and telecommuting options Increased use of internet shopping and home deliveries Significant increase in fuel prices or travel costs Source: flickr.com Model Assumptions Work trips -25%, non-work trips +10%, Peak spreading: 25% +/-60 minutes Source: pexels.com Source: flickr.com Highway Travel Urban speed -5 mph, turn penalty +1 minute, terminal time +100% Auto operating cost +100%, urban parking cost +100% Transit Access Max walk to Rail 1.5 miles, walk speed 10 mph Walk access > 0.75 miles = +5 minutes wait time, +vehicle trip Kiss-n-ride drive cost +50%, time value -50%, wait time +5 minutes Urban Pedestrian Environment Factor +35%

6. Direct Impacts of Alternative Future Scenarios

7. 2040 Scenario A Baseline Performance 2040 Scenario A Baseline compared to 2040 Baseline Standard Future Forecast Scenario A Difference

8. 2040 Scenario B Baseline Performance 2040 Scenario B Baseline compared to 2040 Baseline Standard Future Forecast Scenario B Difference

9. Key Findings Projects in the TransAction Plan provide improvements in all future scenarios Alternative Future Scenarios do not always show as much improvement as the standard future forecast • Some problems are addressed by assumptions in Alternative Future Scenarios • Indicates some level of investment obsolescence for certain projects Good Better Good Better Improvements Caused by TransAction Plan X Alternative Future Scenario Forecast Standard Future Forecast

10. Alternative Future Findings Alternate assumptions about the future could have major impacts on transportation conditions Alternate Future Scenarios could lead to different investment strategies Most projects will still be good investments under both Alternate Futures but the planning process should: • Reassess trends periodically as new information becomes available • Consider each project’s sensitivity to Alternative futures • Consider if encouraging an Alternative Future would be a good regional investment priority 10

11. Further Information http://nvtatransaction.org/