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Business Outlook: Manufacturing Expansion Slowing, Profits Decrease, Dollar Weakening

The manufacturing industry is expanding at a slower rate, with profits decreasing in the third quarter. The domestic profits of financial corporations have also decreased. The weakening of the dollar has helped decrease the US current account deficit. Housing market indicators show declines in building permits, housing starts, existing home sales, and median/average sales prices. Job losses in residential buildings and specialty trade contractors were partially offset by gains in nonresidential specialty trade contractors. Consumer confidence has been dropping since August. Personal income and consumption expenditures increased, but figures were lower than expected. Oil prices have declined, and market indices show mixed performance.

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Business Outlook: Manufacturing Expansion Slowing, Profits Decrease, Dollar Weakening

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  1. Business Outlook • PMI was registered at 50.8 percent indicating that manufacturing economy is generally expanding. However, compared to October’s 50.9 percent it indicates that manufacturing industry is expanding at a slower rate. • Profits from current production decreased $19.3 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $94.7 billion in the second quarter. • Domestic profits of financial corporation decreased $29.1 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $25.3 in the second.

  2. Due to the weakening of the dollar, the US current account deficit has been declining due to an increase in exports and a decrease in imports.

  3. U.S. Dollar vs. Other Currencies USD to EURO USD to Chinese Yuan USD to Canadian Dollar (CAD) USD to Japanese Yen

  4. U.S. Dollar Index The dollar has been dropping due to rumors that the Federal Reserve will cut interest this month. The dollar has fallen 5% against the pound; 7% against the yen; 10% against the euro; 14% against the Canadian dollar; and 8% against the Federal Reserve’s trade weighted basket of currencies.

  5. Housing Market • Building Permits went down 24.3% compared to October 2006, and Housing Starts went down 16.4% compared to October 2006. • Existing Home Sales went down 20.7% compared to October 2006, and current existing home inventory went up by 15.4% compared to October 2006. • Median sales price of existing home went down by 5.1% compared to last year, and average sales price of existing home went down by 3.4% compared to last year. • Persistent weakness in the housing market will lead to below-trend growth for the rest of this year. • Job losses in residential buildings (-9,000) and in residential specialty trade contractors (-13,000) were offset by job gaining in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+16,000)

  6. Consumer confidence has been dropping since August. The Consumer Confidence Index is 87.3, compared to 95.2 in September. This is the lowest since October 2005; it’s reading then was 85.2. The Present Situation Index is down 115.4 from 118.0 during October.

  7. Declining Credit Source: Federal Reserve

  8. Personal Income increased .2% Disposable Income increased by .5% Personal Consumption Expenditures increased by 2% All figures were lower than the increases economists projected.

  9. Oil Prices Crude oil futures have declined significantly from a high of $98.18 on November 23, amid speculation that OPEC may increase oil production.

  10. Markets DJIA NASDAQ Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg S&P 500 DJ Wilshire 5000 Source: Wilshire Associates Source: Bloomberg

  11. Outstanding Commercial Paper Source: Federal Reserve

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