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Northeast LA Business Outlook Summit 2011

Access the PowerPoint presentations from the 2011 Business Outlook Summit online. Explore the change in real Louisiana GSP, population change by MSA, economic indicators, labor market, regional outlook, and threats to local economic activity.

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Northeast LA Business Outlook Summit 2011

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  1. 2011 Northeast LA Business Outlook Summit Dr. Robert Eisenstadt, University of Louisiana at Monroe Dr. John Francis, Louisiana Tech University

  2. PowerPoint presentations from the 2011 BOS will be made available for review on-line at: cba.ulm.edu/cber

  3. The Change in Real Louisiana GSP

  4. The Change in Real Louisiana GSP continued

  5. The Change in Real GSP by LA MSA

  6. Population Change by MSA: 2000-2010 2000-2010 change in US = 9.7% 2000-2010 change in LA = 1.4%

  7. Population Change in NE Louisiana: 2000-2010 Ouachita/Lincoln Parish: +10,696 NELA less Ouach/Lincoln: - 8,800

  8. Index of population change 1980-2010 (1980=1): US, LA, NELA

  9. Other Economic Indicators

  10. New Light Trucks/Vans:

  11. New Automobiles:

  12. NE LA Dealer Sample: New Vehicles: Source: Cross-Sell Reports

  13. Building Permits:

  14. Building Permit Value: Source: U.S. Census

  15. 2008-10 Change in Existing Home Prices: Top 5 States Northeast LA = +3.2% United States = -12.7% Source: National Association of Realtors

  16. And the lowest ranking states:

  17. % Change in Median Home Prices: Louisiana MSA’s: Source: National Association of Realtors

  18. Existing Home Sales in Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Union seem to lack support for a significant price rise… Source: NE LA Board of Realtors MLS

  19. Until we note the number of homes sold in Northeast LA:

  20. Existing homes Market: Ouachita, Morehouse, Lincoln, Union

  21. Ouachita foreclosures are down (approx ½ US rate): And bankruptcy filings in LA lag the Nation: 2007 = 1.0 • Western District 2010 =12,536 (+5.1%) • Louisiana 2010 = 19,236 (+5.3%) • U.S (+13.8%) Source: U.S. Federal Court

  22. The Labor Market

  23. Total Covered Employment (Jobs): Figures as of 2nd qtr 2010: LA Dept of Labor; USBLS.

  24. Construction:

  25. Manufacturing:

  26. RetailTrade:

  27. Finance and Insurance:

  28. Health Care & Social Assistance: *US data contains both education and health care

  29. Total Employment (excluding Healthcare):

  30. Unemployment by MSA: US 12/2010=9.1% LA 12/2010=7.2% Source: Laworks.net

  31. Louisiana Employment: LA continued weekly unemployment claims 2009-10 = -24.2% US continued weekly unemployment claims 2009-10 = -20.5%

  32. Regional Outlook

  33. Probable s sources of significant Job growth in Northeast Louisiana for the next 2-5 years: • Manufacturing • Autos • Food processing • Telecommunications • Financial Services/Information

  34. 5 year estimates of growth (range): • Jobs (f/t equivalent): 2,700 - 9,000 • 2.5% - 8.2% • HH Income($ millions): $90.0 - $285.0 • 2.4% - 7.5% % change based on aggregate of Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Richland, Union Parishes

  35. Threats to local economic activity: • Next Auto fails to obtain Federal Loan • Cuts to State Government • Higher Education • Amounts unknown • K-12 education • Probably not

  36. Regarding the effect on NELA of State funding cuts to higher education, consider first the annual impact of Gardner Denver Thomas:

  37. Now consider the combined impact of ULM, Tech, and Grambling on NELA. And a 5% cut in State funding: Source of data: Louisiana Board of Regents

  38. Thank you for Supporting the Tech/ULM Business Outlook Summit. ?’s

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