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Employment Outlook for Canada and Alberta: Opportunities in the Resource Sector

This research project by the Conference Board of Canada assesses the labor market demand associated with major resource development projects in Canada over the next 10 years. The report provides insights on projected job openings by occupation and region, helping inform Aboriginal leaders and policymakers to ensure access to training for upcoming opportunities in the resource sector. The analysis focuses on labor market needs in resource extraction.

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Employment Outlook for Canada and Alberta: Opportunities in the Resource Sector

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  1. Employment Outlook for Canada and Alberta:Opportunities in the Resource Sector Marie-Christine Bernard Associate Director, Provincial and Territorial Forecast Service, The Conference Board of Canada • November 17, 2015

  2. Background Information on Research Project • With this project the Conference Board of Canada assessed labour market demand associated with Canada’s major resource development projects over the next 10 years • We identified projected future job openings by occupation and by region • This information can help inform Aboriginal leaders and policymakers to ensure that the Aboriginal labour force has access to the training required to take advantage of the upcoming opportunities in Canada’s resource sector • Our analysis focused solely on labour market needs in resource extraction • We did not include occupations related to the development phase of resource extraction projects

  3. Major Natural Resource Projects • The Conference Board compiled a list of close to 115 of Canada’s largest and most important proposed natural resource projects. • Not a full list of every project that will move ahead over the next decade but they represent the majority of likely new major investment spending given current and expected market conditions. • Value of the major projects • In total, investment spending is estimate to be $342 billion over the next ten years. • About $240 billion are energy related projects and will occur mainly in Alberta • About $68 billion are mineral mines. • $17 billion (energy and minerals) are in the territories.

  4. Investment Distribution by RegionSource: The Conference Board of Canada

  5. Investment on Major Projects by SectorSource: The Conference Board of Canada; Public Information Released by Companies

  6. Methodology • To derive labour demand, we estimated the economic impact of the major projects expected to get underway in the resource sector. • We used our detailed econometric forecasting models for each of the 10 provincial economies and three territories to establish a forecast for the resource sector from 2015 to 2025. • With a forecast for output in hand we were able to derive an employment forecast. We broke out the employment forecast in two groups: expansion and replacement demand. • Finally we broke down the forecast results even further by estimating the demand for workers by occupation.

  7. Results • I will be presenting the results for Canada and Alberta. • We want to know where labour demand pressures are going to be felt. • This will help to establish what trades and skills will be most in demand as a result of the expansion in the resource sector and the ageing of the workforce.

  8. Results for Canada

  9. Where are oil prices headed? WTI Crude Price, US$ per barrel 46 % drop Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis The Conference Board of Canada.

  10. Canada: Oil Production.(million of barrels per day) Source: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

  11. Canada: Natural Gas Production.(billion cubic feet per day) Source: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

  12. Metals and PreciousMetalsPrices(2015=100) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada ; World Bank .

  13. Canada: Metal Mining Output has favourable prospects.(metal mining output, $2007 billions) Source: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

  14. Canada: Non Metal Mining Output Expected to Rise Over Long Term. (non-metallic mineral mining output, $2007 billions) Source: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

  15. Canada’s Forestry and Fishing Sector Forecast($2007 billions) Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

  16. Canada: Extraction Employment Outlook, by Industry (in 000’s)Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada

  17. Canada: Employment by Industry and Skill Level - 2014Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada

  18. Canada: Top Occupations in the Resource Extraction Sector – 2015 to 2025Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada

  19. Canada: Top Occupations in the Resource Extraction Sector – 2015 to 2025Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada

  20. Canada: Top Occupations in the Resource Extraction Sector – 2015 to 2025Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada

  21. Canada: Job Openings in the Resource Sector from 2015 to 2025, by Cause and Skill LevelSource: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada

  22. Conclusion for Canada • Employment in the resource extraction sector in Canada is expected to grow just 0.2 per cent between 2014 and 2025. The oil downturn is dampening the results. • Most of the new 65,000 job oppportunities in the resource extraction sector over the next decade are projected to come from workers retiring. • Our long term outlook for occupations suggest that there will be demand for occupations in a diverse range of skills but the majority will require formal training or education. • In many provinces, Aboriginal people are underrepresented in the resource sector workforce.

  23. Results for Alberta

  24. Alberta: Assumptions for Mining Forecast

  25. Employment in Alberta’s Mining Sector(number of people) Source: Statistics Canada.

  26. Alberta’s Mining Sector Forecast(millions, $2007) Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

  27. Employment in Alberta’s Forestry Sector(number of people) Source: Statistics Canada.

  28. Alberta’s Forestry Sector Forecast(millions, $2007) Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

  29. Alberta: Occupation Breakdown of Hiring Needs in Resource Sector, 2015 – 2025

  30. Alberta: Occupation Breakdown of Hiring Needs in Resource Sector, 2015 – 2025

  31. Alberta: Occupation Breakdown of Hiring Needs in Resource Sector, 2015 – 2025

  32. Share of Alberta Workers that is Aboriginal – 2011(per cent)Source: Statistics CanadaSource: Statistics Canada

  33. Alberta’s Workers Age Group Distribution Source: Statistics Canada.

  34. Conclusion • Mining industry is a major employer of First Nations, Inuit and Métis people. • The mining industry still tends to under-utilize this talent group. • Pressure to replace retiring workers. • Resource sector must compete against other sectors for talent.

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