1 / 31

On the application of simple OR models to the Land Force

On the application of simple OR models to the Land Force. Peter J Dortmans , Stephen Bourn, Richard Egudo, Svetoslav Gaidow, Wayne Hobbs & Denis Shine Land Operations Division Defence Science & Technology Organisation Edinburgh, AUSTRALIA. Defining Simple Modelling Some Land Force examples

claire
Download Presentation

On the application of simple OR models to the Land Force

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. On the application of simple OR models to the Land Force Peter J Dortmans, Stephen Bourn, Richard Egudo, Svetoslav Gaidow, Wayne Hobbs & Denis Shine Land Operations Division Defence Science & Technology Organisation Edinburgh, AUSTRALIA

  2. Defining Simple Modelling Some Land Force examples Food for thought Summary

  3. Defining Simple Modelling Some Land Force examples Food for thought

  4. All models are wrong – some models are useful! Occam’s Razor –models should be as simple as possible, but no simpler! What is a ‘simple model’? Simple Models

  5. Simple vs Detailed Models:A viewpoint

  6. Defining Simple Modelling Some Land Force examples Food for thought

  7. Question: What advantages do CID give? Technique: Modified Lanchester Combat ID

  8. Combat ID -Data fa and fb are fratricide coefficients

  9. Combat ID - Results

  10. Combat ID - Results

  11. Question: What advantage do CID give? Technique: Modified Lanchester Better: Is CID always an advantage? Minimise all blue casualties vs minimise blue fratricide casualties Combat ID

  12. Problem: Land forces in 2025? Technique: Agent-based distillations Explore problem space Create “conceptual forces” based on: Engagement, Information Collection, Communication, Decision Making, Sustainment, Movement, Protection Tactical Effects

  13. Tactical Effects – MANA simulation • e.g. Envelopment • On contact: back away, fan out, then attacks • Focus: Information Collection, Decision Making and Movement

  14. Tactical Effects – MANA simulation • e.g. Envelopment • On contact: back away, fan out, then attacks • Focus: Information Collection, Decision Making and Movement Default Scenario Envelopment Succeeding Envelopment Failing

  15. Tactical Effects - Observations

  16. Tactical Effects - Observations

  17. Problem: Land forces in 2025? Outcomes Areas of impact Synergies and antagonisms Emergent Behaviour Basis for further studies Tactical Effects

  18. Comparing future force structures - 2015 What can go wrong? & What can get better? Risk Management Matrix

  19. Risk Management Matrix

  20. Comparing future force structures - 2015 What can go wrong? & What can get better? SME input – AHP facilitated Risk Management Matrix

  21. Risk Management Matrix

  22. Comparing future force structures - 2015 What can go wrong? & What can get better? SME input – AHP facilitated Relative merits of forces and issues/risks Risk Management Matrix

  23. Problem: Adapting conventional forces to asymmetric threats Techniques: Conceptual Modelling; SME input; Pair-wise comparisons Asymmetric Conflict

  24. Asymmetric Conflict:

  25. Asymmetric Conflict: Conceptual Model

  26. Asymmetric Conflict

  27. Asymmetric Conflict Enhance HUMINT Reduce Local Support

  28. Problem: Adapting conventional forces to asymmetric threats Techniques: Conceptual Modelling; SME input; Pair-wise comparisons Indicate opportunities & threats Asymmetric Conflict

  29. Defining Simple Modelling Some Land Force examples Food for thought

  30. Simple models scope problem raise questions set boundaries How do we assess their ‘goodness’? How do we manage ‘complexity’? How do we make sure they are used appropriately? Food for thought

  31. Questions

More Related