Vince.Kellen@uky May, 2014 This is a living document subject to substantial revision!

1. The Future of Technology and Higher EducationVince Kellen, Ph.D.Senior Vice ProvostAnalytics and TechnologiesUniversity of Kentucky Vince.Kellen@uky.edu May, 2014 This is a living document subject to substantial revision!

2. Change The only thing that seems stable is the overused truism that change is permanent. What is also not in dispute is that the rate of change has accelerated and is continuing to increase. Information technology is the primary accelerant in the recent increased rate of change. The effects of the increase in the rate of change are being felt in all aspects of life: personal, careers, social structures, governments, climate. The increase in the rate of change is without precedent in human history. We are all pioneers.

3. What is creating this dynamism? • Rising information intensity and flow • Massive growth in density, quantity and diversity • Dramatic improvements in breadth, ease and speed of access • Global collaboration • Faster innovation, mimicry • Business process replication • IT process replication (e.g., cloud, ITIL, enterprise architecture, PMO) • Speed to market of new offerings • IT is affecting industry competitiveness • Lower barriers to entry, increased market turbulence, major competitors changing positions • From “Scale without mass: business process replication and industry dynamics.” E. Brynjolfsson, A. McAfee, M. Sorell, F. Zhu. Harvard Business School Technology & Operations Mgt. Unit Research Paper No. 07-016 (2007). • Individual and organizational human systems are responding to this pressure

4. Is IT a tool or a capability? Swords Information technology

5. Speaking of change, now let’s talk about the cloud… First some IT facts of life

6. Server Server Hugger Server Hugger Trainee

7. What is this about cloud? • The new outsourcing • Cloud represents a new way of integrating technologies (and business processes) so that the institution relies on external vendors for basic services • Cloud is very real, very big and will transform IT • All major vendors are committing >$1 billion each in cloud technology • What makes cloud computing unique? • Widely used, well understood and generic components • Quick provisioning and de-provisioning • Flexible contracting and procurement

8. Cloud vernacular • Software as a service (SaaS) • Software hosted elsewhere. Higher education has been steadily adopting SaaS • Examples: Hobson’s CRM, Digital Measures, ServiceNow IT support • Infrastructure as a service (IaaS) • Infrastructure hosted elsewhere. Higher education has NOT yet adopted this technology. General purpose server computing can be hosted with a vendor or consortium • Amazon’s elastic computing and storage solutions are examples of ‘generic’ cloud • Large vendors are bringing custom, enterprise cloud solutions forward now • Platform as a service (PaaS) • This includes tools to create applications in the cloud • Examples include Microsoft Azure, Force.com • High performance computing (HPC) as a service is coming too • National labs have long since been an ‘outsourced’ provider of HPC • Expect more HPC university consortiums, offerings be large vendors • Cost of electricity, generic workloads make HPC as a service attractive

9. Cloud futures • Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced the establishment of a spot market for cloud selling and buying • Future pricing? • Options on future contracts? • Derivatives? • Bubble? • The big three (Microsoft, Google and Amazon) are undergoing a price war right now • Legal issues are being solved with some difficulty http://www.forbes.com/sites/reuvencohen/2013/10/02/compute-derivatives-the-next-big-thing-in-commodities/

10. So, what does this mean for data centers? First, let’s look at an institution’s data center of the present…

12. Now let’s look at an institution’s data center of the future…

14. What does this future look like to our server hugger?

17. Sizing capacity Instead of sizing on-premise computing at 100% of potential usage, size at some amount lower and ‘burst’ out to cloud providers for ‘overflow.’ This can save costs 100% ?? Utilization 0% Dec Oct July Jan Apr

18. All forms of cloud will be useful • Software as a service will continue to be important • Enforce real-time data integration for quick user account provisioning and same-day data analysis • Review contracts for legal gotchas and security holes • Infrastructure and platform as a service will become the center of attention • Select multiple vendors to encourage both diversity of supply and competition • Match workload characteristics to vendor strengths • Key challenges for the immediate future • Strong ‘cloud orchestration’ tools to help IT manage on/off premise computing with multiple vendors • Easily managed, real-time data integration across multiple cloud providers • Flexible contracting and pricing models, especially in the area of software licensing

19. Big data and analytics • Big data refers to analysis on very large data sets • Biomedical data, web text mining, student interaction data • Any large and/or fast-moving data set that becomes cumbersome to manage using traditional approaches • Top vendors are all competing intensively with new products • Oracle, Microsoft, SAP, IBM, niche players • What is new? • Ability to dramatically speed up data preparation and data query time • Ability to drill down to details very easily, no performance degradation • Ability to develop new applications with real-time analytics at the core • e.g., student retention/success alerts & reminders, course recommendations based on likelihood of success

20. Teaching, learning and research • Teaching learning and research are very similar • How is knowledge shared and created? • The future of student learning? • Individual cognition • How brains learn is being unraveled. IT can begin to automatically personalize in real-time, the presentation of material to fit within the tight time constraints of working memory and cognition • Smart learning objects that adapt to student cognitive abilities and behavior may be arriving • Social cognition • Learning is not solitary! When done in a community it is done better and more deeply • Group collaboration tools, social media, user-generated content are all ways to engage students in the material through peers 24x7 • IT tools • Move beyond learning management systems to an ecosystem of approaches and tools • The academy uses many different forms of teaching approaches ranging from the one-to-many didactic to many-to-many facilitative, and is likely to continue to do so • Learning can occur at the same time (synchronously) or via interactions over time (asynchronously). IT tools exist for both approaches. Social media approaches for researchers and students • The plethora of mobile devices means students and faculty should access learning information anytime, anywhere

21. Teaching/learning technology ecosystem

22. Procurement ecosystem

23. What should this mean for university operations? • IT should be directed to: • Measurably, over time, lower the cost of IT relative to revenue • Enable improved outcomes for both learning and research • Accelerate the development of business insight for both cost savings & growth • IT should be a scalable infrastructure to help the institution find reallocations and new revenue while maintaining quality Revenue $ Direct labor $ Administrative processes and IT/process infrastructure $ Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 …

24. Let’s review the CIO role in this… • What do we have so far? • Dynamism (internally and externally) is growing • Business process (and those within higher ed) are replicating quickly • IT processes are replicating within the vendor community and between organizations • The impediments to successful use are likely to be increasingly human, not technical • The investments in this whole ball of wax continues to grow, possibly requiring more complex financial acumen to manage • The role of the CIO is shifting • Away from mainly technical infrastructure configuration management • To the dynamics of information costs (technical) and uses (human)

25. The role of organizational capital Investments in computers + people are synergistic Organizational capital: • Degree of self-managed teams • Employee involvement in groups • Diversity of job responsibilities • Who determines pace of work • Who determines method of work • Degree of team building • Workers promoted for teamwork • Off-the-job training • Degree of screening new employees for education From “Intangible Assets: Computers and Organizational Capital,” E. Brynjolfsson, L. Hitt, S. Yang. Center for eBusiness @ MIT, MIT Sloan School of Management. Paper 138. (2002).

26. A lot stands between bits and appropriate action • The purpose of IT is to improve agent action (individuals & organizations) • Both efficiency and appropriateness of action • When millions are invested and the payoff [is, is not] not achieved, who should take [credit, responsibility]? • Can the CIO credibly say “They made me do it?” Action Organizational defensiveness Governance, teamwork Peopleware Individual motivation Visualization, usability Hard/software Infrastructure, ERP

27. Information immunity • “You don’t understand. On the 22nd floor, we work in a fact-free environment.” • While computing excels in turning data into information, getting information shared with fidelity across human beings is difficult • Different disciplines create different mental models. Information mutates or is rejected, depending on the mental models one has • Double-loop learning is not so common • Individual information processing orientation matters • Are you predominantly a Data->theory or theory->data person? • Power relationships, threats to position, conflict, group-think can filter out information • Is this why investments in organizational capital are synergistic with investments in IT?

28. CIO Past Human Market Scope Stable Dynamic Technical Focus of work

29. CIO Present Human Market Scope Stable Dynamic Technical Focus of work

30. CIO Future? Human Market Scope Stable Dynamic Technical Focus of work

31. Five CIO Archetypes

32. Infrastructure expert • While cloud and outsourcing will continue to be popular, many institutions will find it beneficial to manage their own infrastructures for cost or control reasons • The CIO will need to be an expert at running infrastructure at scale, and typically for entities outside the central IT unit • The CIO will also need skills in construction projects, and local and wide area network designs • Questions • Is this a likely scenario? • Is it compelling? • Is it valuable to an institution?

33. Supply chain expert • With the rise of the Iaas, Paas, Saas, consumer technology and all forms of cloud computing, the role of the CIO is changing • Instead of running infrastructure, the CIO will be an expert in procurement, contracts, privacy, law and pricing • The CIO will need to have excellent vendor management skills and will need to be analyze the industry and make good architectural and strategic recommendations to executive stakeholders • Questions • Is this a likely scenario? • Is it compelling? • Is it valuable to an institution?

34. Information and knowledge management expert • With the rise of big data, the CIO will become an expert in all facets of information production and use throughout the organization • The CIO will get involved in many organizational design decisions related to proper use of information throughout the enterprise • The CIO will have a special focus on metrics, dashboard, analysis, statistics, institutional research and related areas • Questions • Is this a likely scenario? • Is it compelling? • Is it valuable to an institution?

35. Business process expert • With the need to save money, the CIO will need to be a business process expert that can advise the institution on how to consolidate and operate technology-intense business services • The CIO will need to be an expert on change management, automation, organizational design, culture change, total quality management and efficiency • The CIO will need to design large-scale consolidation programs that gain the acceptance of the academy • Questions • Is this a likely scenario? • Is it compelling? • Is it valuable to an institution?

36. Value creator • With the calls for better use of IT within universities, the CIO needs to be an expert in how to create value using IT • The CIO will need to be an expert in one or more of the following: teaching and learning, research computation, economic development, IT as a profit-center, and consulting services • The CIO will likely be attached to a strong president who brings a substantial technology-intensive vision • Questions • Is this a likely scenario? • Is it compelling? • Is it valuable to an institution?

37. CIO in the executive pantheon • Where will the CIO report? • To the president? • To the provost? • To the EVP/CFO? • To multiple executives? • CIO, title and governance • Will the CIO be on the president’s tighter cabinet? • Will the CIO be on the president’s larger council? • Will the CIO report to another IT-type position? • Will the CIO title be eliminated? • Is the CIO title getting diluted?

38. Prediction Managing the IT supply chain will not get easier.

39. Questions?