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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 16 May 2010. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 16 May 2010 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • The rainy season in Central Brazil (monsoon region) ended in early April. • During the next 7 days (week 1), the GFS predicts below-average rainfall to continue throughout the Amazon Basin, south of the Equator. The dry conditions are expected to continue and extend eastward to northern Northeast Brazil during week 2.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average rainfall was observed from southern Colombia, Ecuador, northern Peru southward across portions of the southwestern Amazon basin, Bolivia, Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, Southern Brazil and Uruguay. Above-average rainfall was observed over portions of the northern Amazon basin, Colombia, Venezuela and along the coast of southern Brazil.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days below-average rainfall was observed over most of Brazil, with the exception of portions of the southern Brazil and the northern Amazon basin. Dry conditions were also observed over Uruguay and eastern Argentina.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau CB NB BAHIA RJ • 90-day rainfall totals are slightly below-average over central Brazil (CB) and Northeast Brazil (NB). Deficits of about 50 mm. The rainy season in CB ended in early April. • Above-average rainfall totals were observed over southeastern Brazil (RJ) and Bahia (dry conditions over Bahia have been observed since early April).

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies During the last week, equatorial SSTs were between 0.5°C - 1°C below-average over central/eastern Pacific Ocean (160W-110W). SSTs were 0.5°-1.5°C above-average in the equatorial eastern and western Pacific and in the equatorial Atlantic, west of 10°W. A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • During 8-14 May 2010, enhanced 200-hPa cyclonic circulation was located over southern Brazil. Enhanced northwesterly flow was observed over Southeast Brazil. • Anomalous sinking motion (positive omega) and dry conditions (see slide 4, left panel) dominated most of Brazil, with the exception of the areas located on the east flank of the cyclonic circulation (coastal regions of southern and southeastern Brazil). C Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period (8-14 May 2010) above-average temperatures were observed over northeastern Brazil, while below-average temperatures were observed to the south and west. The average location of a cold front during this period is indicated by the dashed blue line. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 16 May 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 16 May 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (16-22 May), below-average rainfall is predicted throughout portions of northwestern South America (south of the Equator), while above average rainfall is predicted over portions of Colombia, Paraguay and southern Brazil. Near-average rainfall is predicted for the rest of South America. • For Days 8-14 (23-29 May), dry conditions are predicted to dominate most of the area 0°-10°S;80°W-35°W and over southern Peru and Bolivia. Above-average rainfall is predicted over northern South America and over portions of southern Brazil. NOTE: See forecast verification in the next slide.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 2 May 2010 Valid 9-15 May 2010 Forecast from 9 May 2010 9-15 May 2010 Observed 9-15 May 2010

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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