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EU Enlargement

EU Enlargement. FYR. Enlargement: from 6 to 27. 1973: United Kingdom, Ireland, Denmark 1981-86: Greece, Spain, Portugal 1995: Sweden, Austria, Finland 2004: “big bang”– eight countries in Central and Eastern Europe plus Malta and Cyprus 2007: Bulgaria and Romania. Copenhagen criteria.

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EU Enlargement

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  1. EUEnlargement

  2. FYR

  3. Enlargement: from 6 to 27 • 1973: United Kingdom, Ireland, Denmark • 1981-86: Greece, Spain, Portugal • 1995: Sweden, Austria, Finland • 2004: “big bang”– eight countries in Central and Eastern Europe plus Malta and Cyprus • 2007: Bulgaria and Romania

  4. Copenhagen criteria “Membership requires that the candidate country has achieved stability of institutions guaranteeing . . .” • 1) the rule of law, human rightsand respect for, and protection of minorities • 2) democracy • 3) the existence of a functioning market economy

  5. Why do CEEC countries want EU membership? • Geopolitics: security, Russia, global weight • Economics: aid, market access, European capitalism • Politics: consolidate democracy • Why do 15 EU members support enlargement? • Geopolitics: stable borders • Economics: cheaper labor, consumers, growth • Politics: Moral obligation to stitch Europe back together

  6. Regional disparities in the enlarged EU

  7. COHESION POLICY Goal: reduce disparities among regions in the EU. About 1/3 of EU spending 2000-2006 = 213 billion Euros 2007-2013 = 330 billion Euros 0.4% of total EU GDP Up to 10 % total public spending in new members

  8. Denmark (1) Sweden (1) Finland (5) Netherlands (7) Canada (9) Luxembourg (11) Austria (12) Germany (14) Ireland, UK (16) Belgium, USA (18) France (23) Slovenia (26) Estonia (27) Spain (28) Cyprus (31) Portugal (32) Malta (36) Czech Rep (45) Hungary (47) Slovakia, Latvia (52) Italy (55) Greece (57) Lithuania, Poland & Turkey (58) Croatia (62) Romania (70) Bulgaria, Mexico, Macedonia (72) Montenegro, and Serbia (85) Bosnia (92) Corruption Corruption ratings from Transparency International, 2008

  9. Minority rights • Not in EU treaties, mainly Council of Europe (Commissioner of Human Rights) • Copenhagen criteria • Commission annual monitoring reports during accession • EU agency for fundamental rights • Private associations, e.g. EUmap.org [Soros] • Problems: • Russian minorities in Baltic states • Roma (esp. Central- and Eastern Europe) • Muslims (esp. Western Europe)

  10. EU wide survey, EU-Midis, May 2009(www.fra.europa.eu)23,500 persons from selected immigrant and ethnic minority groups in all 27 Member States of the European Union.

  11. Eurobarometer 85 November 2005

  12. Next enlargement candidates Beyond enlargement: European Neighborhood policy • Turkey, Croatia, Macedonia • Rest of Balkans: Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania • Mediterranean: Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco • Caucasia: Azerbeidjan, Armenia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia • Budget for 2007-12: 12 billion Euros

  13. EU: top-down approach US: bottom-up approach Skeptical on capacity to create democracy, certainly not by the sword Focus on state building and consolidation Focus on rule of law, good governance  Work with judges, police forces, bureaucrats, political leaders Optimistic about capacity to create democracy, if necessary by the sword Focus on societybuilding and promotion Focus on elections, civil society  Work with civil society groups, election monitoring, parties

  14. What works for regime change? • Short-term: material incentives targeted at governments: Conditional EU membership • clear criteria (Copenhagen criteria) and procedure (Commission annual country reports, implementation and periodic monitoring reports) • multilateralism • bond markets reward ‘good policy’ by lending at lower interest rates • Essential: domestic political competition • Long-term: socialization + learning

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