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Terrorism and Hazardous Weather Events: What have they in common?

Explore the shared characteristics and implications of terrorism and hazardous weather events. This symposium discusses topics such as Hurricane Katrina, collapsing roofs, and risk communication strategies. Gain insight into intelligence analysis, communication, and effective preparedness.

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Terrorism and Hazardous Weather Events: What have they in common?

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  1. Terrorism and Hazardous Weather Events:What have they in common? 7th Annual CRHNet Symposium Fredericton, NB 27-29 October 2010 Jacques Descurieux Meteorological Service of Canada

  2. INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS COMMUNICATIONs

  3. ? Why Terrorism

  4. "Hurricane Katrina: framing the issue – A weapon of mass destruction without criminal dimension” • A. Thaad, Admiral USCG (Ret.) • Floods pose “as great a threat as terrorism” • Sir Michael Pitt • 5000 passengers taken “hostage” • YVR 2009

  5. Montreal “roof collapses” March 2008 • YVR December 20/21 2008 • Katrina • Xynthia • Montreal “heat wave” August 2010

  6. Intelligence?

  7. Intelligence = Information

  8. Analysis?

  9. Analysis = Knowledge

  10. Chronology of the Montreal Case

  11. Collapsing roofs cases

  12. Vulnerability? • 50 000 flat roofs in Montreal as a result of age and ensuing reduced structural integrity.

  13. Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA): • Summarizing data (data exploration and typology) • Checking the coherence of data (systematic cross case comparisons) • Corroborate existing theories or assumptions • Elaborate new theories or assumptions • Test new theories or assumptions

  14. What is “QCA”? • A small to intermediate “N” (2 to 10 and 10 to 100) cases comparisons and analytical tool • “Qualitative” because it is a case-based technique • Introduces the concept of “conjunctural (configurational) causation”

  15. Basic Glossary Determinant or Condition: an explanatory variable that may affect the outcome. Determinants can be “necessary” and/or “sufficient” Outcome: a variable to be explained by the determinants or conditions Boolean minimization: Reducing complex “expressions” into minimal formula

  16. CQA risk communication and response table:

  17. Which hypothesis? • Are any determinants of response to threats important in hazardous weather risk communication? • Are there “configurational causation” relationships between the dynamic or synoptic signature of the weather event, the “elements” (components) of the weather event, the vulnerability(ies) and the ensuing impact(s)? • Which condition(s) is (are) always present where the outcome is present/absent?

  18. Communications?

  19. Communication = Knowledge Sharing or Knowledge Transfer

  20. It is not about the communication channel. It is the message that matters!

  21. Socio-contextual and cognitive determinants of individual response to threat: • Socio-contextual factors: • Perceived preparedness • Trust • Responses: • Information/knowledge gathering • Preparedness • Risk avoidance • Cognitive factors: • What could happen? • How will it evolve? • How will it affect me? • How can I cope? Adapted and simplified from: Lee, J.E. and Lemyre, L (2009) Lee, J.E. and al. (2009)

  22. Preliminary Findings • Individuals are more likely to respond to a warning if it includes the 4 cognitive determinants of response to threat. • Failure to include even one element of any of the cognitive determinants may be sufficient to result in an inappropriate response to a specific threat.

  23. Successful preparedness is about INFORMATION ANALYSIS COMMUNICATION

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