Lecture at the Society for International Development 15 March 2010 Yvo de Boer

1. Lecture at the Society for International Development 15 March 2010 Yvo de Boer Executive SecretaryUNFCCC

2. Key development challenges • 25 000 People die of hunger or hunger-related causes every day • 1.1 Billion people have inadequate access to water; 2.6 Billion people lack basic sanitation • 1.6 Billion people — a quarter of humanity — live without electricity • These existing stresses may be exacerbated by climate change • Overriding concerns of developing countries: poverty eradication and sustainable development(impossible without reliable access to energy)

4. Warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years. Source: IPCC 2007

5. Observed changes Global average temperature Global average sea level Northern hemisphere snow cover Source: IPCC 2007

6. Cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure 2008-2030 Total investment = $25.6 trillion (in year-2008 dollars) Transport Shipping & ports 4% 14% Refining Coal $0.7 trillion 3% 17% Biofuels $0.2 trillion 1% Oil Mining 86% Upstream 79% $5.9 trillion 23% Gas $5.1 trillion Power $13.7 trillion 53% 20% 15% Transmission 9% LNG 33% Distribution T&D 33% Generation 52% 58% Upstream Just over half of all energy-investment needs to 2030 are needed in the power sector, mainly in developing countries - Source: IEA 2009

7. World total primary energy demand up to 2030 (Reference scenario) 18 000 Other renewables Mtoe 16 000 Biomass 14 000 Hydro 12 000 Nuclear 10 000 8 000 Gas 6 000 Oil 4 000 Coal 2 000 WEO-2008 total 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Global demand grows by 40% between 2007 and 2030, with coal use rising most in absolute terms Source: IEA 2009

8. World total primary energy demand up to 2030 (450 scenario) 4 500 Coal 36% Mtoe Oil 4 000 32% Gas 3 500 28% Nuclear 24% 3 000 Hydro 20% 2 500 Biomass 2 000 16% Other renewables 1 500 12% Share of zero-carbon fuels (right axis) 1 000 8% 500 4% 0% 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 In the 450 Scenario, demand for fossil fuels peaks by 2020. By 2030 zero-carbon fuels make up a third of the world's primary sources of energy demand Source: IEA 2009

9. Convergence of the energy and climate change agendas • Increased demand, dwindling fossil fuel resources and economic realities will lead to: • decreased energy security • increasing energy prices • increased emissions from energy Addressing climate change, e.g. through energy efficiency or by increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix, will have a positive effect: • increased energy security • decreased prices • greater energy independence • decreased emissions from energy

10. Share of global greenhouse gas emissions by major sectors (2005) Source: WRI

11. Climate change impacts Poor and least developed regions: • People exposed to increased water stress by 2020: • 12 to 81 million in Latin America • 75 to 250 million in Africa • Possible yield reduction in agriculture: • 30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia • 30% by 2080 in Latin America • 50% by 2020 in some African countries Source: IPCC 2007

12. Climate change impacts • Europe: • Inland and coastal flooding • Health risks due to heat-waves • Reduction of water availability and crop productivity in South Europe • Species losses and reduced snow cover in mountains Source: IPCC 2007

13. Global mean temp. increase (ºC) Stabilization level (ppm CO2-eq) Year CO2 needs to peak 2.0 – 2.4 445 – 490 2000 – 2015 2.4 – 2.8 490 – 535 2000 – 2020 2.8 – 3.2 535 – 590 2010 – 2030 3.2 – 4.0 590 – 710 2020 – 2060 Stabilisation scenarios Source: IPCC 2007

14. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change • 194 Parties – near universal membership • The ultimate objective of the Convention: • “… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” (Art. 2)

15. The overarching themes in the intergovernmental climate change negotiations • Mitigation • Involves human interventions to reduce the sources of GHGs or enhance their sinks. • Adaptation: coping with climatic change – taking measures to reduce the negative effects, or exploit the positive ones, by making appropriate adjustments. • Adaptation is inevitable • Developing countries will be most affected.

16. 2007: Climate change science goes mainstream • IPCC’s fourth assessment report: recognition thatcurrent efforts are not commensurate with the scale of the problem • Mitigation: OneIPCC scenario: industrialised countries to reduce by 25 – 40% below 1990 by 2020. • Adaptation: options exist • Recognition of the urgency to act; • Huge political momentum and increased public awareness on climate change

17. The UN Climate Change Conference in Bali 2007 • Launch of negotiations to respond to momentum of 2007: the Bali Road Map, which includes • Convention negotiations: strengthen the international response up to and beyond 2012 • Negotiations on key building blocks: adaptation, mitigation, including REDD, technology, capacity building and finance • On-going work, e.g. technology, adaptation • Kyoto Protocol negotiations • 2 Years of negotiations towards an “agreed outcome” in 2009 • no consensus on the legal nature of an “agreed outcome”

18. Different interests and concerns in the negotiations • Developed countries: fear the price tag of action, loss of competitiveness and carbon leakage • Developing countries: fear targets imposed through the backdoor • Small Island developing countries: fear that too little ambition will lead to their demise • Oil producing countries: fear the adverse effects of response measures • m • ALBA countries: fear that a solution based on capitalist principles will not translate into a solution

19. The view of developing countries • Developing countries are hesitant to engage because: • Targets have not been met by industrialised countries • Finance has not been provided • They fear that climate change action will constrain their economic growth • There is a lingering suspicion towards the industrialised world

20. The UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen 2009 • While disappointing to many, the conference was important because: • It raised climate change policy to where it belongs: the highest political level; • It advanced critical technical issues in the Bali Road Map negotiations • It produced the Copenhagen Accord (not legally binding): • A letter of political intent; 100+ countries have associated • 2°C • short-term and long-term finance • a review by 2015 • targets; actions

21. Priorities during 2010 • Rebuild confidence in the process • Progress is needed on finance: • the 30 billion USD need to flow • clarity needed on how to generate the 100 billion USD • Clarity on what “legally binding” could entail • Governments need to assess which points of convergence in the Accord could be used to conclude the Bali Road Map negotiations

22. The UN Climate Change Conference in Mexico 2010 • Objectives for Mexico need to take current political realities into account • The needs of developing countries need to be addressed • Fully operational architecture that makes it possible for developing countries to act on climate change • Needs to include many avenues for cooperation to make it work • Clear leadership by industrialised countries • Conclusion of the negotiations under the Bali Road Map • Progress could lead to consensus to turn the outcome into a legal treaty in the future.

23. Avenues for cooperation through the climate change regime with adequate finance • Mitigation, e.g.: • NAMAs; • Technology mechanism to boost technology transfer; • Capacity-building; • REDD; • Adaptation, e.g.: • Adaptation framework to support work at regional and national levels; • Mechanisms to manage loss and damage, including insurance;

24. Avenues for cooperation: private sector involvement • The private sector will be key in implementation • Directly through the climate change regime: • Existing market mechanisms; new mechanisms • Possibility of generating new funding • Outside the regime, but with benefits for the climate: • Business is often driven by sustainability issues not directly perceived as climate related, but which: • cut operating costs, e.g. through energy efficiency standards • share knowledge on sustainability in a globalised world • are increasingly greening growth • boost cooperation on green innovation

25. Avenues for cooperation: the development community • The development community needs to assist developing countries, especially LDCs, African countries and Small Island Developing States: • identify the most pressing adaptation needs • identify critical technology gaps for adaptation • assist in implementing adaptation in the context of overall development strategies • identify options to leap-frog emissions-intensive growth and assist in mitigation planning • identify investment needs and technology gaps for mitigation • assist in implementing mitigation actions

26. Thank you