Strategic Planning on Statistical Development for Fragile and Conflict States:

1. Strategic Planning on Statistical Development for Fragile and Conflict States: Afghanistan Experience Abdul Rahman Ghafoori President General, Central Statistics Organization PARIS21 Meeting NY, 20 February 2010

2. INTRODUCTION • War and conflict create many problems against statistical development in any country and some of the problems are: • Decision-making becomes short-term, emergency focused and reactionary. • The long-term planning becomes casualty. • Statistical development looses its importance and is relegated to tail-end priority. • Resources to maintain statistical system dry up, capacities built over decades get eroded, and culture of inertia develops

3. INTRODUCTION (Contd…) • Planning field-work becomes extremely difficult - security issues • The cost of operations multiply. • Planning and decision-making becomes personality-based, moving away from evidence-based – lack of reliable and timely data • Administrative Statistical System does not generate the needed data. • Vicious cycle of low use, low demand, low supply begins.

4. Challenges and Statistical Development • In Afghanistan, the vicious cycle (of low use, low demand, low supply of data) broke in 2002, and demand for data began to increase. • However, there is still serious lack of awareness about the statistics in many corners. • Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS) requires enormous amount of data on poverty, employment, education, health, etc. • Erosion of capacity and lack of resources pose serious challenges. • Working and planning in uncertain environment.

5. Strategic Planning for Statistical Development in the Face of Challenges in Afghanistan • Developing Afghanistan National Statistical Plan (ANSP) for a comprehensive and long-term view on the statistical development • Working towards better coordination among stakeholders • Constitution of Task Force for development of a Statistical System with representation of important donors, ministries of finance, economy and user ministries • Strategic positioning of CSO in the monitoring and evaluation of ANDS and creating awareness

6. Strategic Planning for Statistical Development in the Face of Challenges in Afghanistan (Contd.) • Preparing a capacity-building plan with emphasis on “learning-by-doing” approach • Strengthening IT and statistical infrastructures to improve delivery system • Providing for financial and technical resources through donor coordination – WB, DFID and EC • Providing for increased statistical awareness and statistical literacy through improved interaction with the users to meet their data demands, and through media

7. Strategic Planning for Statistical Development in the Face of Challenges in Afghanistan (Contd.) • Conduct of National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (NRVA) to meet the immediate data needs in the important sectors – poverty, employment, health and education, etc. Thee rounds have already been completed. • NRVA has been institutionalized now as the multi-purpose household survey with fixed and variable modules – 2 to 4 years cycle. • Information on delivery of basic services is also collected through NRVA as it is very important in conflict situation.

8. Strategic Planning for Statistical Development in the Face of Challenges in Afghanistan (Contd.) • The Afghanistan Household and Population Census(APHC) is being used as a major capacity-building and infrastructure-development exercise. • Two rounds of Household Listing have already been completed. • Census could not be carried out as planned for 2008 due to security and political reasons. • Innovations in implementation of census to deal with special conflict situations in the country i.e. ground preparation to conduct the census, through outreach coordinators, b) some modification during preparation stages such as in HHL

9. Strategic Planning for Statistical Development in the Face of Challenges in Afghanistan(Contd.) • Working to strengthen the administrative statistical system in the country • Concept of Statistical Audit is being introduced in the ministries to address the existing statistical gaps, especially vis-à-vis their mandates. Pilots are being considered to begin. • The system to collect administrative data is being strengthened and Statistical Yearbook will be the ultimate culmination of all efforts. • An attempt to begin to charge for some of the products is being considered as a preliminary step to encourage self sufficiency.

10. Strategic Planning for Statistical Development in the Face of Challenges in Afghanistan (Contd.) • Improving datadissemination – a website, (www.cso.gov.af), has been developed under the control of CSO. • It is expected to improve the availability and use of statistics leading to increase in demand for data. • Developing a Micro-data dissemination policy is currently under way. Key donors, such as DFID, WB and EC are also involved. • Planning while keeping security situation in mind – Careful planning, enough flexibility, without compromising data quality, and coordination are key factors for success vis-à-vis uncertainties.

11. Conclusion • Conflicts and uncertainty create undesirable trends hampering growth and development of statistics. • However, the realities have to be accepted, and challenges faced. Surrendering is no option. • Flow of data has to continue for the evidence based decision making and planning. • Flow of resources have to continue by better stakeholders participation and donor coordination. • Special efforts and innovations have to be made to tackle the special circumstances created by the conflict situation. • Statistics is the lifeline to save country from further sinking into conflict and /fragility.

12. Thank You