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Playing Against a Stacked Deck: Using Poker Theory to Better Manage WC Claims

Playing Against a Stacked Deck: Using Poker Theory to Better Manage WC Claims. Presented By: James A. Moran. When a man with money meets a man with experience, the man with experience leaves with money and the man with money leaves with experience.      -  Anonymous. Game Theory. Agenda.

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Playing Against a Stacked Deck: Using Poker Theory to Better Manage WC Claims

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  1. Playing Against a Stacked Deck:Using Poker Theory to BetterManage WC Claims Presented By: James A. Moran

  2. When a man with money meets a man with experience, the man with experience leaves with money and the man with money leaves with experience.      -  Anonymous

  3. Game Theory

  4. Agenda Clubs: Controlling the Opposition Spades: Digging for Information Diamonds: Financial Considerations Hearts: The Art of Persuasion

  5. Clubs: Controlling the Opposition

  6. OJ VIDEO

  7. Influence Tactics

  8. Heuristics

  9. Reference Point Effects

  10. Diminishing Marginal Losses and Gains

  11. Delivering the News

  12. Loss Aversion

  13. Escalation of Commitment

  14. Irrational Reciprocity

  15. Spades: Digging for Information

  16. Tells, or Seeing into Your Opponent’s Soul

  17. Blocking Techniques

  18. If All Else Fails…

  19. Diamonds: Financial Considerations

  20. The Sunk Cost Fallacy

  21. Expected Value

  22. Expected Value (% Probability1) ($ Payoff1) = Value1 (% Probability2) ($ Payoff2) = + Value2

  23. Expected Value (.5) ($100) = $50 (.5) ($0) = + $0 $50

  24. Expected Value .25 x $250,000 = $62,500 .25 x $50,000 = $12,500 .25 x $20,000 = $5,000 .25 x $1 = + $0.25 $80,000.25

  25. Expected Value (40%) ($50,000) (70%) = $14,000 (30%) ($150,000) (70%) = $31,500 (30%) ($300,000) (70%) = $63,000 (40%) ($100,000) (70%) = $28,000 (60%) ($0) (70%) = $0 (70%) ($100,000) (70%) = $49,000 (30%) ($0) (70%) = + $0 $185,500

  26. Hearts: The Art of Persuasion

  27. Conjunction Fallacy

  28. Questions?

  29. Thank You James A. Moran Shareholder jmoran@nbkllaw.com (312) 629-9800

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