1 / 18

Portugal: the impact of ‘anti-crises measures’ and the socio-economic situation

Portugal: the impact of ‘anti-crises measures’ and the socio-economic situation. José Castro Caldas Centro de Estudos Sociais Universidade de Coimbra. The three stages of the crises. The financial stage (Mar. 2008 – Dec. 2008) Main concern: stability of the financial system.

cleary
Download Presentation

Portugal: the impact of ‘anti-crises measures’ and the socio-economic situation

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Portugal: the impact of ‘anti-crises measures’ and the socio-economic situation José Castro Caldas Centro de Estudos Sociais Universidade de Coimbra

  2. The three stages of the crises The financial stage (Mar. 2008 – Dec. 2008) Main concern: stability of the financial system

  3. The three stages of the crisis The economic stage (Dec. 2008 – Feb. 2010) Main concern: recession

  4. The three stages of the crises The fiscal stage (Feb. 2010 - present) Main concern: Stability of the euro

  5. Anti-crisis measures in Portugal: stage I • Third quarter 2008: “Iniciativa de ReforçodaEstabilidadeFinanceira, IREF)”: • Acountability of financian institutions • Deposit garanties • State garanties to banks

  6. Anti-crisis measures in Portugal: stage II • Jan. 2009: “Iniciativapara o Investimento e o Emprego” (anti-cyclical, expancionay measures, 0,8 % GDP): • (Fiscal) support to home owners; • Anti-poverty allowances • Family allowances • (Fiscal) support to firms • Rehabilitation of public schools • Technologic infrastructure • Financial support to exporting SME • Emplument

  7. Anti-crisis measures in Portugal: stage III • Mar. 2010: PEC I • May. 2010: PEC II • Sep. 2010: PEC III • Mar. 2011: PEC IV (rejected, government resigns) • Apr. 2011: IMF/EU/ECB Memorandum • June 2011: Elections (new majority)

  8. Anti-crisis measures in Portugal: stage III • Fiscal consolidation: • Increase tax revenue: tax rates, special income taxes, tax benefits • Reduce public spending: cuts in public servant payroll, decrease pensions, increase public services access rates and regional coverage • Privatization • Structural adjustment: • Reduce unemployment benefits, generalize means testing, flexibilise labor legislation

  9. The impact of anti-crisis measures (cyclical)

  10. Trend 1: High public deficit

  11. Trend 1: High Public Deficit

  12. Trend 2: Increasing Public Debt

  13. Trend 2: Increasing Public Debt

  14. Trend 3: escalating unemployment

  15. Trend 4: Decrease of the n. of people with access to protection

  16. Trend 5: Increasing inequalities Social Europe, 2011, The Distributional Effects of Austerity Measures: a comparison of Six Countries, Research Note 2/2011

  17. Trend 6: Delegitimisation of democratic rule • Opinion Poll Februray 2012: • 62% (32 % in >September) desaprove the government • 73% “there is no better alternative” • 40% “austerity will not solve the problem”

  18. Conclusion • The scenario inscribed in these trends: • Deep recession compromising the objectives of deficit and debt containment, and precipitating an unprecedented social crisis. • Political or democratic representation crisis with unpredictable consequences .

More Related