Stephen Gill York University, Toronto, Canada

1. Stephen GillYork University, Toronto, Canada • “After Bush”: RLF 10 November 2008 • Panel 1: What’s next? Politics in the USA after the elections.

2. America & the world: key questions My assumption is that US domestic politics has global implications – the Presidency of the USA is by definition an “imperial Presidency”. Thus my key questions are: • What is the legacy of the Bush years? • What has changed in US politics & what is likely to be new with an Obama Presidency?

3. Q1: Legacy of Bush • Bush Presidency needs to be understood in a longer term & wider context. • USA has led a strategy of global redistribution to benefit the affluent & the plutocracy & to weaken the left & other sources of opposition • Bush strategy sought to lock in these gains by means of 3 aspects of domestic & foreign policy: • war on terror & state of emergency • disciplinary neo-liberalism - G7 strategy • full spectrum dominance - Pentagon

4. Disciplinary neo-liberalism • Program of the G-7 led by the USA since early 1980s. • Uses discipline of market forces for the majority, but tax breaks & socialization of risk ( “corporate welfare”) for the strong. • Locked in legally in some countries e.g. the EU Maastricht agreements that – so far at least – have limited permissible government debts. • Involves de-politicization of opposition by rendering social problems into individual questions – promoting the “self help” society + punitive methods of order, esp. in USA. • Main beneficiaries: plutocracy of billionaires; big business, especially in energy, finance + associated consultancies, lobbyists + members of celebrity culture.

5. Full Spectrum Dominance and US Military Strategy • 1997 Pentagon strategy document that promulgated the concept of “full spectrum dominance” maintained into the future through “full force integration”. • Goal was to sustain US superiority by synergizing military technologies on land, sea, and air and in space. • Its objective: to protect “US national interests and investments”, not only from traditional rivals, but also from new challenges including those stemming from “a widening between ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’” (US Space Command 1997). • Involves more than war in Iraq or Bush war on terrorism/ strategy of pre-emption and regime change.

6. The US Global Military Footprint:An Empire of Bases By 2007 US has approx. 1,000 military bases around the globe; 6000 in US and US territories. Possibly 6 new bases constructed in Iraq Since September 2001 US forces have built/upgraded/expanded military facilities in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Turkey, Bulgaria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. US will maintain its bases in its main allies such as Japan & Korea to offset China

7. Q2: What has changed in US politics? • What type of change does Obama represent? • What are his priorities? • A question of hegemony • What about US military policies?

8. “Obama is the change” Obama has changed the way that US politics operates • Mobilizes powerful fund-raising & organizational machine that draws on Silicon Valley & internet-based social networking • A new type of political force –not a “party of a new type” - the Lefts can learn a lot from this • Obama feels “no pressure” to select a cabinet that reflects “change”. “Obama is the change” says a campaign official, “Right now what America is looking for is competence, expertise and credibility” (Financial Times, 7 November 2008). His choice for Secretary of Treasury? • Obama Chief of Staff is Rahm Emmanuel, former Clinton Advisor – then worked as investment banker for 3 years & earned $16 million; elected to Congress 2003 “where he rose quickly because of his fund-raising skills in Wall Street and Hollywood”.

9. Obama: a question of hegemony • Obama provides a means to regenerate hegemony for the US ruling classes --- Gramsci: hegemony = consent armoured in coercion. The reconstruction of consent: • Legitimates the US constitutional order – 64% turnout highest since 1908 with strategy of cross-party alliance or “bipartisanship”. • Will seek to help rescue US capitalism by means of a more compensatory version of neo-liberalism & avoid a deeper economic slump – Bush bailout of Wall Street = $750 billion; Obama proposes $100-200 billion in public works & redistribution. It may help states to avoid public sector layoffs, some help to distressed home owners is likely – a solution less skewed towards the wealthy • May support changes in US labour law to make union organization easier -- will be opposed by corporations

10. The financial crash of 2008: Obama’s # 1 priority • G7 political leaders ignored problems financial liberalization and deregulation. • After years of preaching the virtues of sound money and fiscal prudence and cutbacks in social benefits announce perhaps $5 trillion dollars in bailouts paid for by public funds • Obama’s principal economic advisor states the #1 priority is to avoid another great depression – as in the 1930s. • Opportunity costs – alternatives foregone: what could this gigantic sum be otherwise spent on? Better schools, public transport, health care, social provisions?

11. Obama Foreign Policy • Obama will seek to restore US leadership abroad, where possible via co-optation of opposition -- e.g. some argue it will now be difficult for European leaders to say no to putting military in Afghanistan. • Obama is more of a multilateralist & closer to what used to be called Rockefeller Republicans such as Paul Volcker – we can expect to see more support for international organizations & global co-ordination of prudential financial regulation • Joseph Nye (Harvard & Chair of Trilateral Commission): "I think Barack Obama would do wonders for America's soft power." Revitalization of US cultural imperialism? • Obama is very methodical and targets his efforts in very precise ways – his use of surveillance & networking power will also capitalize on his media links.

12. Hegemony = Consent armoured in coercion • Obama will continue US efforts to attain Full Spectrum Dominance + expand its “global” military “footprint” (its empire of bases, proxy forces, militarization of space) • Will increase “Special Forces“ ie US capacities for rapid intervention. E.g. Obama has supported the addition of 65,000 troops to the Army and 27,000 to the Marines + build more C-17 cargo planes and KC-X refueling aircraft • Obama has called for increased spending on electronic warfare capabilities to enhance America's "future ability to extend its global power." • Plans to "recapitalize“ US naval forces "to patrol ocean "choke points" & protect oil supplies, esp in Middle East

13. A final hypothesis • Obama represents a possibility to restore the credibility of ruling class power in the USA after Bush by making the minimum necessary concessions and changes in policy • Lampedusa’s il Gattopardo (1958) • As Garibaldi’s revolutionaries invaded Sicily in 1860, the aristocrat Prince Tancredi observed: “Unless we ourselves take a hand now, they will force a republic on us. If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change”