Stephen Gill York University, Toronto, Canada

1. Stephen GillYork University, Toronto, Canada Visiting Jane and Aatos Erkko Professor in Studies on Contemporary Society, University of Helsinki Lecture to University of Tampere16/10/09Lecture will be posted on: http://www.stephengill.com

2. GLOBAL ORGANIC CRISIS & THE POST-MODERN PRINCE

3. Outline Part 1: Two Concepts Part 2: The Crisis of Accumulation & The Global Organic Crisis Part 3: Political Alternatives & the Post-Modern Prince

4. Part 1 Organic Crisis & Post-modern Prince “The old is dying and the new is being born, and in the interregnum there are many morbid symptoms”

5. Global organic crisis • A wide-ranging combination of economic, social and ecological crises characterizes the present global conjuncture • Present crisis is more deep-seated than an economic depression or a cyclical crisis of capitalist accumulation or economic growth. • It involves emerging challenges to the dominance of neo-liberal market civilization & capitalist globalization.

6. The Post-modern Prince as collective political agency • This concept is grounded in a reading of Machiavelli’s & Gramsci’s concepts of political agency. • It seeks to conceptualize some of the real and imagined aspects of progressive politics in the 21st century.

7. The Prince (1513) • Machiavelli sought to analyze the national & global power relations of his time & place -- weakness of a divided Renaissance Italy vis à vis the geopolitical power of France & Spain • Spoke not to those in the palazzo but in the piazza – to those “not in the know”; he demystifies power • Political power – the centaur – was based on force and persuasion. The Prince as a new type of sovereign would found a new and united Italian state.

8. The Modern Prince (1927-36) • Workers should create a new hegemony, an ethical & democratic form of state & culture with the revolutionary party as a solution to Fascism & the 1930s organic crisis. • “The modern prince, the myth-prince, cannot be a real person, a concrete individual”. • “It can only be an organism, a complex element of society in which a collective will, which has already been recognized and has to some extent asserted itself in action, begins to take concrete form” (Gramsci, The Prison Notebooks, 1971 ed Q Hoare; my emphasis).

9. The Post-modern Prince • Combines the old and the radically new in a search for a new global progressive hegemony • Still in development yet part of global progressive movements that have emerged over centuries. • Responds to global organic crisis in “concrete form” e.g. World Social Forum/ Left Forums • Goes beyond traditional left politics & internationalism of elite vanguards or the primacy of industrial working classes • Non-hierarchical -- multiple organizations & processes, leadership is diverse & not easily incarcerated or decapitated. • Embodies new universal political myth of social & ecological sustainability: diversity, democracy and equality of peoples as a “universal project”.

10. Part 2: Beyond The Crisis of Accumulation Elements of Global Organic Crisis Today

11. Crisis of Accumulation: the orthodox view • Source: Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O’Rourke 4 June 2009 • http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421 • The slump of 2008-09 matches the severity of 1930s collapse & in some respects it is worse • World industrial production tracks closely the 1930s fall, with no clear signs of “green shoots”. Unemployment rising. • World stock markets and world trade initially follow paths far below those followed in Great Depression • Dow 10,000 & the Obama “rally” – is it a “double dip” recession?.

12. Global priorities: capital comes first

13. Political Ethics & Global Priorities: capital comes first • EU + US + UK bailouts & macroeconomic stimulus = US$17 trillion (figures drawn from The Economist, IMF & other sources). • This is over 22 times the total planned funds for UN’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). • MDGs seek to provide minimum & basic health & education for billions of the world’s poorest between now and 2020. • “Billions for the banks, pennies for the people” (Juan Somavia ILO Director in Financial Times April 2009).

14. Morbid symptoms: global crisis & rising hunger “Almost unnoticed behind the economic crisis, a combination of lower growth, rising unemployment and falling remittances together with persistently high food prices has pushed the number of chronically hungry above 1bn for the first time”. Financial Times April 6 2009. In fact we live in a world where half the world’s population suffers from malnutrition – 25% are over-fed, many of whom over-weight and obese, with 25% underfed or starving So what are the causes & some of the other consequences of the spike in food prices?

15. Example: world capitalist markets increasingly determine food prices & level of starvation Broader consequences include: Increased corporate control of global agriculture + more rapid turnover time of capital Energy & fertilizer intensive production Export-orientation creates crop monocultures & damages the biosphere Decline of local self-sufficiency means world market determines “food security”

16. Proximate causal factors? US production of subsidized grain export floods the world market in the 1990s & wipes out many small Third world producers – e.g. Mexico after NAFTA (1994) 1.17 million Mexicans are displaced from agriculture following trade liberalization. A “perfect storm”? No -- recent price spike is mainly caused by man-made factors including: Shift of US grain production to bio-fuels creates global supply shortages. Global futures trading e.g. in Chicago & New York markets, linked to speculation & rising food prices

17. Global prices & food sovereignty • 1 in 7 people in the world is starving. 2005-8, food prices rise 83%; are still 60% higher than in 2006. 37 nations experience intense food crises 2008; world-wide riots break out. • Via Campesina, Landless Workers’ Movement in Brazil (MST) & other grassroots peoples’ organizations continue to press for food sovereignty, organic production & a new society. • April 2009, 58 Third World governments agree to redirect agriculture to support small scale farmers, women, to support local knowledge; to counter global warming – G20 & Gates Foundation respond to preserve world market in food & alleviate hunger.

18. Rethinking the concept of organic crisis today What are some differences between 1930s & today? • Crisis of accumulation is truly global – a second Great Depression on a wider scale – USSR was outside world capitalism in 1930s. • G8 responses reveal that macroeconomic interventions are one-sidedly favourable to big capital and the plutocracy, especially to Wall Street. • There are no obvious communist alternatives to the dominance of global capitalism by neo-liberal forces since the fall of the USSR in 1989. • However some new forms of left-wing political agency are emerging in the longer context of national & global struggles, e.g. the Post-Modern Prince

19. Global organic crisis today – some further defining elements: 1-5 • Turnover time of capital accelerates, profits boom & rates of exploitation of people & nature increase. • Growing subordination of states to capital (following some socialization and nationalization of the means of production 1917-1989). • Privatization of profits and socialization of the risks for corporations & the strong (e.g. huge bail outs). Increased privatization of risk for the weak & the majority (small firms, workers), especially as social provisions for social reproduction (provisions for families, education). • Political power of free enterprise & the propertied fully restored, unprecedented growth of a global plutocracy. • Acceleration of extreme inequality of income, wealth & life chances.

20. Distribution of world GDP 1990 • UN Human Development Report 1992 • Richest 20% had 82.7% of world income; poorest 20% had 1.4%

21. Global inequality & global power • December 28, 2006: Financial Times asks how, without reading Marx’s Capital, could one possibly explain how the world’s richest 2% of people now owned more than 50% of the world's global assets. • In fact the top 1% owned 40% of total global assets – 37 million wealthy people. • The bottom 50% (approx 3.3 billion people) collectively owned less than 1% of total wealth • The World Distribution of Household Wealth, by James B. Davies et al (UNU-WIDER December 2006)

22. Further elements of global organic crisis: 6-9 • Expropriation or dispossession of producers of their means to subsistence – parallels early capitalist enclosures and colonization (ongoing primitive accumulation). Enlarges the size of the global proletariat “free” to sell its labour to capital. • The coercive, arbitrary use of coercion & military force (& torture) – and its use with impunity – becomes a regulative principle in world affairs, especially during Bush II administration. • Growing contradictions between legality and legitimacy provoke challenges to global governance & international organizations & the search for new and more democratic political and social forums • All of this is occurring as market civilization is spreading and as threats to the biosphere & the ecology of livelihoods are increasing

23. Part 3: Political Alternatives & the Post-Modern Prince

24. After the emergency: return to a reformulated neo-liberal orthodoxy? Some limited progressive initiatives incorporated, e.g. by Obama. Yet his program one-sidedly favours Wall Street. “Exit strategies” -- after the bail-outs: reintroduction of mechanisms to justify & lock in a return of fiscal discipline, austerity, privatization, cuts in provisions for social reproduction. Reinforcement of market discipline on individuals, workers and families e.g. through growing debts (personal loss of wealth, lower incomes, reduced pensions). IMF grows & resumes debt imperialism via donor country conditionality and stabilization programs.

25. Authoritarian tendencies in the emergency? The Global North • Bailouts & stimulus may not work, e.g. in Japan US & UK interest rates now effectively zero; huge deficits and even more government debt on the way -- who will pay the costs? • Efforts to manage the crisis – particularly if they fail – may reinforce tendencies towards a more reactionary & authoritarian capitalism as in the 1930s. • Note the effects on state apparatuses associated with the “war on terror” (the option to suspend civil liberties, impose martial law etc.) might be used against “revolts” from below & crush protests.

26. The Global South • The organic crisis in the South is a continuing crisis, mediated by external (imperialist) institutions and political forces e.g. continues 1980s debt crises. • Riots & protests not simply over free elections but over neo-liberal policies. end of food sovereignty; repression of trade unions. • Western media seems to give these little coverage. • Countries driven to IMF & EBRD may be subjected to a new round of externally imposed conditionality & austerity, further undermining their sovereignty

27. State capitalist responses to the organic crisis in the Global South • Rising Third World powers such as China, Brazil & India seek to create alternative geopolitical and economic links & more multi-polar world order, e.g. use aid & economic leverage to challenge dominance of the US dollar & the G8 consensus. • Yet much of this is aimed at reforms within global governance & within the dominant frameworks of action configured by global capitalism. • Nevertheless some new state actors in Third World, e.g. Venezuela & Bolivia, are seeking to produce socially progressive systems & livelihoods, so far on a regional basis.

28. The Post-Modern Prince and the Global Organic Crisis - 1 • The present crisis is more than a crisis of capitalist accumulation or a necessary self-correction aided by macroeconomic intervention and bailouts. • It involves a state of global economic emergency – political discourse opens up but if the crisis worsens it may lead to reactionary outcomes. • Crisis reflects intensifying contradictions of market civilization – a consumerist, privatized, energy-intensive & ecologically myopic pattern of social development: crisis is social and ecological. • New progressive forces – the “global lefts” (in the plural) are combining and must combine further to address the global organic crisis.

29. The Post-Modern Prince and the Global Organic Crisis - 2 • Progressive organic intellectuals – numbering in the millions – seek to develop a new hegemony in national and global civil society. • Many organic intellectuals are developing a new language of politics – in ways that go beyond orthodox left-wing politics & policy agendas -- E.g. they are rethinking social and ecological sustainability and the meaning of civilization. • Therefore to pose the global political question today we might say: “Old forces are dying (but are not yet dead) & new forms of political agency are still being born – but in the interregnum, the organic crisis with its morbid symptoms is intensifying”.