The Live rpo ol Bay Coastal Observatory John Howarth, Roger Proctor, Phil Knight, Mike Smithson

1. An integrated monitoring system and research tool The Liverpool Bay Coastal Observatory John Howarth, Roger Proctor, Phil Knight, Mike Smithson Real-time measurements Real-time modelling Web display

2. Coastal Observatory - objectives Water quality eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, pollution Impacts of climate change Habitats / biodiversity Natural and anthropogenic changes cf National & EU directives, UN resolutions Ecosystem based approach to marine management Search & Rescue / Accidents Engineering – coastal, offshore – design, operation Climate & biogeochemical cycling Coastal ocean dynamics and ecosystem Turbulent mixing and biophysical interactions Education, outreach Time series & real time

3. Irish Sea Liverpool Bay Dee Estuary Mersey Estuary Guiding principles Proof of concept (2001 – 2007 / 2012) Pre-operational near real time measurements test models Evolutionary Framework anyone can join process studies Basic data / model output free Data management by BODC Audience researchers, managers, general public, education Steering group

4. Why the Irish Sea ? Semi-enclosed Simple bathymetry Tides – wide variation Low runoff most in east Lateral salinity gradients Stratified & well- mixed regions Weak advection (ann. av. north 2cm/s) Pulsed storm events

5. Integrated measurements Variety of space and time scales Real time Multi-disciplinary Measurements and models In situ time series Sites A and B Spatial survey HF Radar Ferry Satellite A B

6. Monitoring at the right scale Range of strategies After Dickey

7. Waves Dec 2002 – Aug 2006 (ADCP) Winds April 2004 – Sept 2006

8. Correlation Scalar = 0.988 Vector = 0.849 Tz Correlation 0.67 / 0.96 Mean diff 0.97 / 0.69 (ADCP periods longer than buoy’s) Wind spectrum

9. River discharge (Dee + Mersey + Ribble)

11. Tides - M2 Site A – blue Site B – red + ADCP * Radar

12. Other tidal constituents (site A) O1 M4 M6

13. Correlation coefficient 0.63 cf bottom stress

14. Residual currents Site A Site B 5 April 2005 – 22 Sept 2006 Near surface 0.045 m s-1 Near bed 0.030 m s-1 Sandwaves 7 Aug 2002 – 21 Sept 2006 Near surface 0.025 m s-1 Near bed 0.040 m s-1

15. Mean current compared with theory

16. HF radar coverage First principal component (41% variance) Coverage over mooring sites Comparisons with in situ waves and current measurements (A&B) 157 4 km cells

17. Spectra of residual currents HF radar Clockwise Anti-clockwise First principal component

18. Four years CTD data (38 visits) 97 % Temperature Depth-averaged Surface minus bed 13 % Salinity Mersey Bar

19. Surface - bed at site A – all CTDs (251)

20. 25 hour stations profiles every 30 minutes 11/12 May 2004 9/10 May 2006

22. Surface to bed differences November 2002 – March 2006 Temperature Salinity

23. 19 April – 18 June 2004 Temperature Surface - SmartBuoy Bed frame Salinity Mersey Bar

24. Site B November 2005 Temperature 5m below surface – blue Sea bed frame - red Salinity

25. Salinity Sites A and B Wind and waves Amplitude Direction

26. Liverpool Viking, Birkenhead - Belfast Instruments CTD – SeaBird SeaCat SBE Turbidity – Sea Point Fluorimeter – Chelsea Minitracka II Intake 3m below surface Sample interval – 30 seconds Data transmission – Orbcomm Start date – December 2003

27. Ferry – buoy(Site A) Salinity: r=-0.05, sd=1.42, n=1117 Temp: r=0.99, sd=0.65 °C, mean=0.11°C,n=2599

28. Temperature - Birkenhead to Belfast Green Max / Min Blue Mean Red Mean±sd 2004/5 South of IOM

29. Data Assimilation (EnOI)Isabel Andreu-Burillo 22/10/04 forecast free simulation 21/10/04 (SAF+FB) observations 22/10/04 forecast (SAF+FB)- constrained 22/10/04 forecast SAF-constrained

30. Nutrients

31. Nitrate

32. Mean winter currents

33. Planned Operational models for Coastal Observatory To run on POL cluster Met forcing, mesoscale 12km resolution (5km soon?) FOAM 1/9 degree (T,S, ζ, Q) AMM-12km MRCS -7km 12km IRS -1.8km LB-200m Real-time River inputs Daily nowcasts/forecasts physics (T,S, ζ, U,V, waves), spm, light, nutrients, biology

34. MRCS, began 2002, 5-day forecast near real-time POLCOMS – ERSEM: MERSEA SST BT ZOO CHL 55 state variables

35. Model - buoy comparisons

36. Web site – http://coastobs.pol.ac.uk • Registration • Over 500 registrations • General public (55%) • Researchers (20%) • Coastal Managers (10%) • Teachers (10%) • Other (5%)

37. Future Trace metal, benthic nutrient flux; dissolved oxygen, turbulence, pH, pCO2, biofouling, CDOM instrumented ferry nutrients, water sampler Improve data quality – eg salinity Full suite of real time coupled hydrodynamic, wave and ecological models, inc Liverpool Bay salinity, circulation, light penetration, data assimilation Data interpretation; synthesis of models & measurements National, European and International collaboration 2007-12 (more ferries, third in situ site, drifters, gliders) Links to policy: research -> sustained

38. Conclusions 4 years measurements Measurements test models Assessment of eutrophication status of Liverpool Bay Questions Variability of horizontal and vertical gradients Circulation Residual energy at tidal frequencies Ebb – flood inequality Events

39. International workshops on coastal observatories First on 17-19 October 2006 in Liverpool, UK “Best practice in the synthesis of long-term observations and models” Covering aspects of utilisation of time series, data assimilation, optimisation (design) of observing systems, model configuration For programme see . http://www.pol.ac.uk/home/coastal_obs_workshop http://cobs.pol.ac.uk/home/news/events.php

40. Why the Irish Sea ? Large human impact Focus of Government activity - Biodiversity action plans - EU Water Framework and other directives - Offshore Renewable Energy - Marine Bill (UK and EU) Historical industrial legacy Nutrient loading from Atlantic, atmosphere & rivers – elevated levels, EIS eutrophic?, HABs Estuaries with different human impact (Dee-agricultural, Mersey-industrial)

41. Glider – 22 days; 1,000 km; 4,235 profiles (26 October – 17 November 2005)