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Traffic Parameters for MOBILE6 in Ky - Update

This document provides an update on traffic parameters for use with MOBILE6 in Kentucky, including vehicle miles traveled, speed, truck percentage, and vehicle age/type distribution. It also discusses data collection methods and future directions for improving modeling procedures.

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Traffic Parameters for MOBILE6 in Ky - Update

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  1. Traffic Parameters for use with MOBILE6 in Ky. - Update by Jesse Mayes, P.E. Division of Multimodal Programs July 22, 2003

  2. Air Quality Timelines • New Emissions Model MOBILE6 - Now • New 8-Hour Ozone Standard - 4/15/04 • Conformity due - 4/15/05 • SIP due - 4/15/07 • New PM2.5 Standard - 12/15/04 • Conformity? • SIP due - 12/15/07

  3. MOBILE6 Requirements WEATHER MOBILE 6.2 VMT BY VEHICLE TYPE AVERAGE SPEEDS BY FUNCTIONAL CLASS OF ROAD VMT BY TIME OF DAY VMT BY YEAR OF VEHICLE FREEWAY/RAMP VMT DISTRIBUTION

  4. Traffic Parameters for use with MOBILE6 in Ky.- Update • VMT • Ramp % • Speed (Space Mean Speed) • Truck % • Vehicle Age/Type Distribution

  5. VMT • HPMS data • Local mileage GPS’ed (TBC by 12/31/03) • Local ADT based on collector ADT (see KTC report at http://www.ktc.uky.edu) • Forecasts developed in-house based on trends

  6. Ramp % • Freeway Mainline/Ramp % • Mainline % Ramp % • MOBILE6 Default 92.0% 8.0% • Kentucky Urban 92.4% 7.6% • Kentucky Rural 98.5% 1.5% See KYTC Report

  7. Speed • Starting Point • Data Collection • State of Speed Estimation for Areas without TDMs (Rural Areas) • State of Speed Estimation for Areas with TDMs • Conclusions

  8. Starting Point 1997 HPMS Average Speeds by Functional Class. not accurate, obsolete • HPMS Functional Class # Rural/Urban Description 1997 HPMS Average Speeds (mph) • 01 Rural Interstate 50.4 • 02 Rural Principle Arterial 47.4 • 06 Rural Minor Arterial 34.9 • 07Not Rural Major Collector 31.5 • 08 Rural Minor Collector 31.5 • 09 Rural Local 31.5 • 11 Urban Interstate 49.0 • 12 Urban Freeway 50.5 • 14 Urban Principle Arterial 28.0 • 16 Urban Minor Arterial 20.6 • 17 Urban Collector 21.1 • 19 Urban Local 21.1

  9. Data Collection - Speeds • Spot Counts • Automatic Traffic Recorders (ATRs) • Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)

  10. Data Collection Spot Counts

  11. Data Collection ATRs

  12. Data Collection ITS

  13. State of Speed Estimation for Areas without TDMs (Rural Areas) • Survey of literature • Proposed national research • Speed estimation workshop • Highway Economic Requirements System (HERS)

  14. Survey of Literature • NCHRP Report 387 • TMIP Travel Model Speed Estimation • Highway Capacity Manual

  15. Proposed National Research • Submitted 2 proposals to NCHRP 8-36

  16. Speed Estimation Workshop • Workshop conducted by Dr. Rich Margiotta of Cambridge Systematics • Included Kentucky Model User’s Group • Recommended HERS methodology

  17. Travel Demand Models (TDMs)(Urban Areas) • Status quo • Brainstorming sessions/changes

  18. Travel Demand Models (TDMs)(Urban Areas)-Recommendations • Use of improved BPR equations • Use of more accurate free flow speeds • Calibrate models for speed in addition to volume • Develop standard modeling procedures for statewide usage

  19. Speed - Conclusions • With MPOs and Consultant Partners, Develop Consistent Methodology for TDMs • For Other Areas, Develop HERS Solution Based on Kentucky Data Availability • Provide to Air Quality Agency TDM Speeds where available and Rich M. HPMS/HERS results for other areas

  20. Final MOBILE6 Speed Estimations

  21. Review of Actions • Rich Margiotta MUG workshop (8/14/02) • TDM/speed workshop (12/6/02) • DVMT/speed data submitted to DAQ for new 8-hour ozone standard (1/24/03) • Randy Simon used HERS and “local” data to calculate speeds for AQ submission (5/03) • Highway Speed Estimation for M6 by Kentucky - presented at AWMA (6/23/03) • Poster at TRB Partnering Conf. (5/16/03) • Speed study initiated with KTC (7/15/03)

  22. Future Directions • Develop standard modeling procedures for statewide usage • Investigate other local traffic parameters such as VMT & Speed by time-of-day and vehicle type • Explore the use of registration data/crash data

  23. Conclusion • It is important to establish a consistent speed methodology for the state. • It is equally important look at other transportation related MOBILE6 inputs. • Thank you for your attention. • Questions/Comments? • Email:Jesse.mayes@mail.state.ky.us

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