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Global Population Aging and Human Capital Futures

Global Population Aging and Human Capital Futures. Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D. Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D. Center on Aging NORC and the University of Chicago Chicago, Illinois, USA. Alarmists believe that our planet may become a global nursing home.

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Global Population Aging and Human Capital Futures

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  1. Global Population Aging and Human Capital Futures Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D. Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D. Center on Aging NORC and the University of Chicago Chicago, Illinois, USA

  2. Alarmists believe that our planet may become a global nursing home

  3. Japan example shows the future for other countries

  4. China shows population aging

  5. Indian population also started to age

  6. United States in 2010

  7. Demographic Determinants of Population Aging • Declining fertility • Increasing longevity • Out-migration of youth

  8. Declining fertility • Demographic studies demonstrated that the declining fertility (birth) rates has the greatest role in causing population aging • Population aging happens because the declining fertility (birth) rates make recent cohorts smaller than the preceding ones, thus tilting the age distribution towards older ages.

  9. World fertility rate is declining Sourse: Economist, 2009

  10. Total fertility rates in European countries

  11. In developing countries (with exception of Africa) fertility declines even faster

  12. In wealthy Asian countries the problem of low fertility is exacerbated by delaying marriage of women

  13. Many women in wealthy Asian countries remain single

  14. Workforce participation in combination with cultural traditions result in delaying marriage among Asian women

  15. Poor countries have higher fertility

  16. Consequences for Population Growth

  17. Increasing longevity • The increase in life expectancy has two components, acting on population aging in the opposite directions. • The first component is the mortality decline among infants, children and relatively young persons, having age below the population mean. This component of mortality decline is acting against population aging, because its effects (saving young lives) are similar to effects of increased fertility

  18. Increasing longevity (2) • The second component of the increase in life expectancy is related to a new trend of mortality decline, which had emerged after the 1950s in the developed countries -- an accelerating decrease in mortality rates among the oldest-old (85+ years), and the oldest-old women in particular • This second component of mortality decline, which is concentrated in older age groups, is becoming an important determinant of population aging (women in particular) in industrialized countries (population aging “from the bottom”).

  19. Life expectancy at age 65, 2003-2005

  20. The role of immigration • Immigration usually slows down population aging, because immigrants tend to be younger. • In Russia immigration during the 1990s partially alleviated the effects of population aging

  21. The role of emigration • Emigration of working-age adults accelerates population aging, as it is observed now in many Eastern European countries

  22. Socio-demographic processes that accompany population aging

  23. Feminization of population aging • The fact that in most nations females have lower mortality than males in every age group results in “feminization” of population aging. • In 2005 in Russia, there were 16.8 million older women and 8.4 million older men aged 60 and over, or a sex ratio of 50 men for every 100 women. • In 2007 in the Eastern Europe this ratio was equal to 57 men to 100 women and 69 men per 100 women in Europe.

  24. Increasing load on social welfare system • The potential support that elderly may receive from the working population can be measured by the potential support ratio: the ratio of population aged 15-64 years to that aged 65 years and over • The ratio is measured as an inverse of age-old dependency ratio

  25. Demographic load and the concept of demographic dividend

  26. Child and Elderly Dependency Ratios • The child dependency ratio is equal to the number of individuals aged below 15 divided by the number of individuals aged 15 to 64, expressed as a percentage. • The elderly dependency ratio is equal to the number of individuals aged 64 and above divided by the number of individuals aged 15 to 64, expressed as a percentage.

  27. Total dependency ratio: Europe, Russia, USA, and Japan

  28. Demographic dividend • The demographic dividend (the term coined by David Bloom from the Harvard school of Public Health) is a demographic stimulus to economic growth due to a rising share of working age people in a population. • This usually occurs late in the demographic transition when the fertility rate falls and the youth dependency ratio declines. • During this demographic window of opportunity, output per capita may rise.

  29. Demographic dividend in the world due to decline of total dependency ratio

  30. For China demographic dividend is over

  31. For India demographic dividend is at its beginning

  32. Positive attitude to aged people is the key to successful adaptation to the population aging

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