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Unit 4 Global Human Population

Unit 4 Global Human Population. Lesson 1 Population Theories. Models in Geographic Research. A model is defined as an idealistic or simplified representation of reality that illuminates particular characteristics. It’s purpose might be to: Test certain assumptions

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Unit 4 Global Human Population

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  1. Unit 4Global Human Population Lesson 1 Population Theories

  2. Models in Geographic Research • A model is defined as an idealistic or simplified representation of reality that illuminates particular characteristics. It’s purpose might be to: • Test certain assumptions • Predict what might happen • Draw together general principals of behaviours • Describe what occurs

  3. Models in Geographic Research • A paradigm is a kind of super-model. It provides intuitive or inductive rules about the kind of phenomena scientists should investigate and the best methods of investigation • ex In 1543, Copernicus put forward the heliocentric view of astronomy, in contrast to the Ptolemak (150AD) geocentric view

  4. Models in Geographic Research • Criticism • Geographers cannot and are not willing to make one general rule as each rule has its own flaws: • Models are very abstract and theoretical • All models have assumed that people are both perfectly knowledgeable and economically rational • Models are static - only existing at one point in time

  5. Models in Geographic Research • Wider points of criticism: • Most views deal with Western Capitalistic Economic views • Most researchers assume that men are the financial decision makers • In Support of Models: • Sometimes they’re really HOT! • They do simplify research • They allow us to see the underlying process • They are supposed to add intellectual rigor as they cause us to think

  6. A. Thomas MalthusPrincipals of Population – 1798 6 Principals of Malthus • Population, if left unchecked can increase geometrically – doubling every 25 years • Food supply can only increase arithmetically within the same time period • Recognize the disproportion between the two

  7. A. Thomas MalthusPrincipals of Population – 1798

  8. A. Thomas MalthusPrincipals of Population – 1798 • Ask the question, “What checks are operating to limit population increase?” • Identify those checks: A. • Positive Checks (War, famine, plague) • Preventable Checks (All checks on birthrate)

  9. A. Thomas MalthusPrincipals of Population – 1798 B. • Misery • Vice • Moral Restraint 6. Recognize that various checks are related – If the force of one check is removed, the other checks must increase – otherwise, population will increase.

  10. B. Neo-Malthusianism Our growth as a population is limited only by the availability of natural resources and the speed at which our planet can renew itself from our impact. Modern-day environmentalists are Neo-Malthusians as, one again our resource base does not seem to keep up with our growing population  Must they be wrong as well?

  11. C. William Catton – Overshoot and the Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change: 1987 Catton is a Neo-Malthusian He argued that growing populations – especially consumer societies place unlimited pressured on limited resources.

  12. C. William Catton – Overshoot and the Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change: 1987 • Sustainable Development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs • Drawing down occurs when sustainability does not – AKA Overshoot

  13. C. Other Neo-Malthusian Ideas • Ecological Footprint The quantity of productive land consumed by an individual to support their lifestyle throughout their lifetime

  14. Ecological Footprint Fair Earth ShareThe Earth has a limited area of ecoproductive land; or land generating resources that are useful to humans. If the Earth's ecoproductive land was equally divided among all humans, there would be 5 acres for each person. This is called a "fair Earth share".The average person alive today has an Ecological Footprint of 6 acres according to conservative estimates. This means that we need more than one Earth to continue to support the consumption level of everyone alive today. Fair Earth Share :  2.02 hectares per person World Footprint  :  2.5 hectares per person US Footprint       :  11 hectares per person

  15. D. Esther Boserup – The Conditions of Agricultural Growth - 1965 The total population is always able to increase. Increasing population is the trigger to develop new changes to the technology of farming. If Malthusian Restricted Population Growth is controlled by the arithmetic growth of food supplies, then Boserup’s Variable Population Growth is the model of invention where the increase in population stimulated the development of new and improved farming techniques

  16. D. Esther Boserup – The Conditions of Agricultural Growth - 1965 Neo-Boserupians declare that significant agricultural growth is achievable through industrialization. Both Malthusian checks and Boserup’s crunch points are avoided when population pressures are relieved through safety valves such as: - Immigration - Industrial Development - Urbanization

  17. E. Demographic Transition Model • Jack Caldwell – One of the crucial reasons that family sizes tend to be large in some communities is that the resources from the community are channelled from child to parent. • When the value (both social and economic) of children is diminished, population size begins to decrease. • Therefore it is not industrialization that controls birthrate but a society’s attitude toward their own children

  18. E. Demographic Transition Model • Human populations go through stages of growth that are dependant on technological and cultural changes. • Multhus’ oversight results from his writing prior to the Industrial Revolution and during a time of great population growth

  19. E. Demographic Transition Model • Since his time, human population has decreased as a result of • Increased Technology – Improved health care and diet • Improvements in Social Welfare • Labour Standards • Restricted Child Labour • Compulsory Education • Family sized decreased as birthrate decreased as children began to cost money – not make money.

  20. Demographic Transition Model Demographic Trap

  21. E. Demographic Transition Model • This pattern repeated itself throughout Western Europe and North America. It continues to hold true as • LLDCLDCMDCHDC

  22. E. Demographic Transition Model • Stages of the Demographic Transition Model • Stage 1 • - High Birth Rates + High Death Rates • - Stable population growth  BR=DR • - No health care or medicine • - High infant mortality rate • - Low levels of nutrition • - Large families • - Does not really exist in our modern world • ESCAPE THROUGH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

  23. E. Demographic Transition Model • Stage 2 • - High Birth Rate – Low Death Rate • - Natural increase is so large Population Explosion • - Industrialized nations passed through this in the 19th Century • - Emerging Industrial Nations (Mexico) Early 20th Century • - High population growth strains the economy • - Western Europe and North America were able to absorb this new population through urbanization and Westward emigration • - Death Rate drops during this time: • - Rise of scientific knowledge in the 19th C • - Increases in public health • - Understanding the nature of disease • - Immunization, water clarity, sewage, pasteurization and refrigeration • - Decreases in infant mortality

  24. E. Demographic Transition Model • As population increases there are increases in environmental pressure, but with no new frontiers to settle – people began to stay where they were  straining the environment. • Causes urbanization – China, Taiwan, Thailand, Victorian London with poor living conditions and increases opportunities. • ESCAPE THROUGH SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTION

  25. E. Demographic Transition Model • Stage 3 • Decreases in Death Rate continue • Significant decreases in Birth Rate • Emerging Industrial Nations • Stage 2  Influenced by Technology • Stage 3  Influenced by Social and Cultural change • It takes several generations to BR to decrease as quickly as DR

  26. E. Demographic Transition Model • By the Mid 19th C in Western Europe • Social Change, Social Welfare, Pension Plans, Employment Insurance, Welfare, Child Labour Laws, • Mandatory Education  Social Safety Net Decrease in family size. ESCAPE THROUGH FINANCIAL AND SOCIAL REVOLUTION

  27. E. Demographic Transition Model • Stage 4 • Natural Increase has stabilized where BR is almost the same as DR. Population growth is low. • Most of W. Europe is there today. • Brazil and Malaysia are on their way. • If most of the world could enter Stage 4 –global population could stabilize by the end of 2100 – Not accounting for disease, economic condition and social attitudes

  28. E. Demographic Transition Model • BR decreases as a result of Socio-Economic factors as is the case with Modern Canada • - Boomers have fewer children • - Family Planning • - Contraceptives • - Working Women • - Consume Society – Prosperity from the 1950’s • ESCAPE TO STAGE 5 THROUGH A SOCIO-ECONOMIC

  29. E. Demographic Transition Model • Stage 5 • DR>BR for the first time in human history (except for that plague thing) • Rate of Natural Decrease • Danger of population decreasing to where it can not recover • Few countries are there yet – Germany • Danger of loss of language, culture and tradition (sound like nationalism? HINT!) • Increase in environmental consequences • Individual prosperity is at a historic high

  30. E. Demographic Transition Model • Once Stage 5 of the DTM has occurred • MALTHUS IS WRONG

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