SWFDP – Eastern Africa (pilot phase)

1. SWFDP – Eastern Africa (pilot phase) Milestones (Planning and Management): • Technical-Planning Workshop (Nairobi, Oct 2010) • Agreement that the SWFDP-EA would be technically feasible • Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries • Focus on: strong winds, heavy precipitation, Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) • 1st Meeting of the Regional Subproject Management Team (Nairobi, June 2011) • Development and approval of the Regional Subproject Implementation Plan (RSIP) • Roles and responsibilities of the participating centres defined • Timelines for implementation defined • Centres’ Representatives appointed, following the nomination by the PRs

2. Focus on: Strong winds (≥ 25kts) Heavy precipitation (≥ 50mm/24hr) Hazardous waves (≥ 2m) (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) Dry spells (up to: 5 days (LAM); 10 days (global)) Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries Domains: 5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria) Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) MSG satellite products (EUMETSAT products) Verification Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia Pilot Phase: Started September 2011 to August 2013 SWFDP – Eastern Africa – RSIP for the pilot phase WMO

3. SWFDP – Eastern Africa (pilot phase) • Preparatory Training Workshop (Dar, Oct 2010) • 6 forecasters • 6 reps of the nat. disaster management orgs • 6 reps of the agricultural meteorology sector • Training workshop (Arusha, Nov 2011) • 6 forecasters – Participating Centres Reps + 3 TMA • 6 PWS Focal Points • 6 AgM Focal Points Milestones (Training):

4. SWFDP – Eastern Africa (pilot phase) • Training Workshop (Entebbe, Nov 2012) • 6 forecasters + 2 UDoM (including the UDoM rep for the SWFDP-EA) + 1 South Sudan • 6 PWS Focal Points + 1 South Sudan • Training workshop (Bujumbura, Nov 2013) • 7 forecasters (including 3 participating centres reps: Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda) + 7 BHMD • 6 PWS Focal Points Milestones (Training) – cont.:

5. SWFDP – Eastern Africa (pilot phase) Summary of the Quarterly Reports:

6. SWFDP – Eastern Africa (pilot phase) • General agreement regarding the usefulness of the products (both deterministic and probabilistic) received from ECMWF, UKMO and NCEP. • Participating Centres have moved from a subjective evaluation of different models in a poor man’s ensemble mode to a more objective discrimination in terms of probabilities regarding the occurrence of severe events in their countries • Case studies provided are particularly important to give feedback to the forecasters and Centres running NWP models. An example was shown related with the lack of details of ECMWF EPS probabilities around lake Victoria. This feedback has triggered an investigation at ECMWF, which is still ongoing. Some results show a striking difference in the ECMWF precip model climate between D+1 and longer term forecasts on that area. Summary of the Quarterly Reports

7. SWFDP – Eastern Africa (pilot phase) • Although the thresholds used to issue warnings look low on occasions, regional guidance criteria is appropriate taking into account that the models tend to underestimate the precipitations or strong winds. • Verification – events table compiled in the 3 largest countries, slow progress in performing verification activities (maybe due to the lack of specific questions on verification in the quarterly report template) Summary of the Quarterly Reports – cont.

8. SWFDP – Eastern Africa (pilot phase) Summary of the Quarterly Reports - Benefits • Improved accuracy in the weather forecasts, alerts and advisories • Capacity development • Enhanced skills and competencies (Forecasters and Non-forecasters) • Improved computing/ICT facilities • Improved dialogue among the “Expert Group” • Created a “critical-mass” of champions at all levels (Sectors) • Created a platform for data/product/information sharing • Created confidence among the weather/climate producers and users • Forecasters appreciated the usefulness of the NWP products • Improved lead-time of warnings, advisories and alerts • Improved service delivery

9. SWFDP – Eastern Africa (full demonstration phase) • Meeting of the Regional Subproject Management Team in conjunction with the meeting of the EAC Heads of Met Services (Arusha, May 2013) • Started in September 2013; with South Sudan participation • The following criteria were agreed for alerting severe weather in the RSMC Daily Guidance charts: • Heavy rain: ≥ 50 mm/24hr, (also ≥30mm/hr criterion in text guidance only) • Strong winds: ≥ 25 Kts • Ocean/lake large waves: ≥ 2m • Dry spells during the rainy season: dry spell of one to 5 days (from LAMs); dry spell of 5 to 10 days (from global models); (a dry day has rainfall less than 3mm a day, warnings needed during the rainy season only) • Lightning : lightning risk of 4 or 5 (on 1-5 scale) • Hailstorms: hailstorm risk of 4 or 5 (on 1-5 scale) • Extreme temperatures: maximum ≥ 35 C; maximum ≥ 40 C sustained for more than the period specified in WHO guidance; minimum < 10 C, < 5 C, < 0 C plus additional warning if these criteria are sustained

10. SWFDP – Eastern Africa (full demonstration phase) • Meeting of the Regional Subproject Management Team in conjunction with the meeting of the EAC Heads of Met Services (Arusha, May 2013) • Revised report template (4-months) to include : • More detailed questions on the usefulness of the NWP/EPS products made available through the project • Questions on verification • Daily videoconferencing between forecasters (gradually being implemented)

11. Daily Teleconferencing between forecasters Burundi Uganda Ethiopia Rwanda South Sudan Consensus Support Collaboration Kenya (Cross region) Tanzania (Lake Victoria) Met Office GGU