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Income Shares

Income Shares. Kenya. Source: WDI Database 2012. Gini Index. Source: WDI Database 2012. Wages. Source: Breakout Nations , Sharma, 2012. Human Capital. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Frontier Market Asset Management, 2009. 2050 Hindsight. Where are we… where were we?

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Income Shares

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  1. Income Shares Kenya Source: WDI Database 2012

  2. Gini Index Source: WDI Database 2012

  3. Wages Source: Breakout Nations, Sharma, 2012

  4. Human Capital Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Frontier Market Asset Management, 2009

  5. 2050 Hindsight • Where are we… where were we? • Growth Drivers • Human Capital • Demographics • Education, Innovation, Wages • Middle Class • Investment • Government • Economic Freedom & Rule of Law • Governability and Veto Points • Culture • Trust & Behavior • 2050 Success and Failure

  6. Capital Formation Source: WDI Database 2012

  7. Investment Source: McKinsey

  8. Savings Source: WDI Database 2012

  9. Electricity Losses Source: WDI Database 2012

  10. Investment Source: Frontier Market Asset Management, WDI Database, 2012

  11. 2050 Hindsight • Where are we… where were we? • Growth Drivers • Human Capital • Demographics • Education, Innovation, Wages • Middle Class • Investment • Government • Economic Freedom & Rule of Law • Governability and Veto Points • Culture • Trust & Behavior • 2050 Success and Failure

  12. Government Entrepreneurial Hong Kong U.S. Russia Singapore Taiwan Thailand China Turkey Indonesia Poland Philippines Rules Chaos Chile Greece Czech Rep Japan Italy India Mexico Pakistan Bureaucratic What is best?

  13. Countries Do Change! Entrepreneurial Hong Kong U.S. Singapore Taiwan China Thailand Turkey Indonesia Poland Philippines Rules Chaos Chile Greece Czech Rep Japan Italy India Mexico Pakistan Bureaucratic Government Government Russia 2000 1990 1970 1990

  14. Heritage Economic Freedom Source: WDI Database 2012

  15. Heritage Foundation – Economic Freedom Rank BUSINESS FREEDOM • Starting a business—procedures (number), time (days), cost (% of income per capita), minimum capital (% of income per capita) • Obtaining a license—procedures (number), time (days), cost (% of income per capita) • Closing a business—time (years), cost (% of estate), recovery rate (cents on the dollar) TRADE FREEDOM • The trade-weighted average tariff rate • Non-tariff barriers: quantity restrictions, price restrictions, regulatory restrictions, investment restrictions, customs restrictions, and direct government intervention FISCAL FREEDOM • The top tax rate on individual income and on corporate income • Total tax revenue as a percentage of GDP GOVERNMENT SIZE • Government spending % of GDP MONETARY FREEDOM • The weighted average inflation rate for the most recent three years • Price controls INVESTMENT FREEDOM • Restrictions in sectors related to national security or real estate • Expropriation risk • Access to foreign exchange • Restrictions on transfers or capital transactions http://www.heritage.org/index/Explore.aspx (Frontier Countries in Blue) Source: The Heritage Foundation, 2008

  16. Heritage Foundation – Economic Freedom Rank FINANCIAL FREEDOM • Central Bank Independence • Freedom of credit allocation • Contract enforcement • Presence of private financial institutions • Foreign financial institutions not restricted PROPERTY RIGHTS • Private property guaranteed by the government • There is no corruption or expropriation • The court system enforces contracts efficiently and quickly. • The justice system punishes those who unlawfully confiscate private property CORRUPTION • Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) LABOR FREEDOM • Ratio of minimum wage to the average value added per worker • Hindrance to hiring additional workers • Rigidity of hours • Difficulty of firing redundant employees • Legally mandated notice period http://www.heritage.org/index/Explore.aspx (Frontier Countries in Blue) Source: The Heritage Foundation, 2008

  17. Economic Freedom – The Heritage Foundation The Heritage Foundation 2013 (Frontier Markets Blue, Emerging Green)

  18. Today’s World:Argentina:26 days to start a businessBrazil:119 days to start a business 2007 2012

  19. World Bank Rule of Law & Corruption Source: WDI Database 2012

  20. World Bank Governance – Change 2010 versus 2000 SA Source: WDI Database 2012

  21. Government % GDP Source: WDI Database 2012

  22. Government Source: Frontier Market Asset Management, WDI Database, 2013

  23. Total Scores Source: WDI Database 2013

  24. 2050 Source: Frontier Market Asset Management, WDI Database, 2012

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