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Situation and Outlook for the 2013/14 Florida Citrus Season December forecast

Situation and Outlook for the 2013/14 Florida Citrus Season December forecast. FCM Board Meeting january 8, 2014. Florida orange crop, 2013-14 . December forecast. Factors of production Utilization and Juice Imports Juice supply, availability, movement and inventory

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Situation and Outlook for the 2013/14 Florida Citrus Season December forecast

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  1. Situation and Outlook for the 2013/14 Florida Citrus SeasonDecember forecast FCM Board Meeting january 8, 2014

  2. Florida orange crop, 2013-14.December forecast Factors of production Utilization and Juice Imports Juice supply, availability, movement and inventory Retail sales and per capita consumption

  3. Nursery Propagations Source: FDACS, Budwood Annual Reports.

  4. Orange Bearing Tree InventoryFDACS/FASS. Florida Citrus Statistics, 2012-13.

  5. Factors of production Source: FDACS/nass reports.

  6. Florida Orange Crop Utilization(1,000,000 boxes) • NFC needs are basically fixed for relevant crop sizes. The residual market is FCOJ.

  7. US Orange Juice ImportsOctober through september • Brazilian prices need to have duties added, whereas ‘Others’ (Mexico and Costa Rica) do not. • FCOJ beginning inventory is priced ~$1.40/ssg! Source: US Dept of Commerce.

  8. US Orange Juice ImportsOctober 2013 • Concentrate prices are $.10 per gallon higher than where they closed in 2012/13. • Brazilian NFC prices are >$.20 per gallon higher. Source: US Dept of Commerce.

  9. FL OJ Availability, Movement & InventoryCurrent Season Forecast vs year ago After 12 wks -55.6% -33.5% -12.5% 11.2% -22.1% -72.1% -2.3% -0.2% Source: FDOC Processor Statistics Reports.

  10. US Retail Orange Juice Sales – All Categories FDM plus Walmart In 2003/04, Branded Recon comprised 17% of all retail sales, equivalent of 23mm boxes. The pace for 2013/14 equates to 11%, or 7mm boxes.

  11. Retail Orange Juice SalesBy Category: Importance and STD % change RTS prices are lower than previous year, yet volume continues to trend downward for both nfc and recon. NFC revenues are lower for the first time since 2009-10. NFC comprises 59% of all retail volume and 68% of the revenue, where as. Recon RTS comprises 37% and 28%, respectively. Source: FDOC, Nielsen Retail Sales, Monthly Top-line Report, period ending 12/21/13.

  12. U.S. OJ Supply & Consumption

  13. Florida grapefruit crop, 2013-14.December Forecast Factors of production Utilization Juice supply, availability, movement and inventory

  14. Productivity Sub-Factors. Averages and deviations from the average.Source: FASS. Citrus Crop estimate Advisory Committee Report, September 19, 2013. USDA/NASS Citrus Crop Estimates.

  15. Florida Grapefruit Crop Utilization(1,000,000 boxes) • NFC needs are basically fixed for relevant crop sizes. The residual market is FCGJ.

  16. FL GJ Availability, Movement & InventoryCurrent Season forecast versus year ago After 12 wks -38% -14.9% -13.5% 49% -20.2% 7.1% Source: FDOC Processor Statistics Reports. EMRA Forecasts for 2013-14, 12/2/13.

  17. Thank you!

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