Arizona Reaching International Competitiveness by 2025

Arizona Reaching International Competitiveness by 2025 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

60 25 to 34 45 to 54 50 40 30 20 10 0 Italy Spain Japan Korea Poland Mexico Greece Austria Finland Ireland Iceland France Turkey Norway Belgium Canada Sweden Portugal Germany Hungary Australia Denmark Switzerland Netherlands Luxembourg New Zealand United States Czech Republic Slovak Republic United Kingdom Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Young and Older Adults—U.S. and OECD Countries, 2004 Source: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2006

60 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 53.3 51.6 49.1 50 47.0 45.1 42.3 41.4 40.7 40.7 40.4 39.4 39.2 39.0 38.0 40 37.2 36.2 35.7 35.6 34.5 34.1 33.5 32.9 32.7 32.3 31.8 29.4 28.9 30 27.3 25.2 23.2 21.5 20.0 19.2 20 16.4 15.7 9.7 10 0 Canada Japan Korea Sweden Belgium Ireland Norway United Arizona States Percent of Adults with an Associates Degree or Higher by Age-Group – The U.S., Arizona, and Leading OECD Countries (2004) Source: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance 2006

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 40 37.0 35 31.8 31.8 30.8 30.6 30.2 29.5 29.2 30 28.3 28.2 27.5 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 25 23.5 22.7 21.8 21.1 20.6 20.0 20 17.8 15.6 14.0 15 10 8.7 5 0 Norway Netherlands Korea United States Iceland Canada Arizona Percent of Adults with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher by Age-Group – The U.S., Arizona and Leading OECD Countries (2004) Source: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance 2006

12 10.0 10 9.4 8 7.5 6.9 6.7 6.3 6.2 6 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.6 4 3.5 3.0 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.6 2 1.5 South Carolina 1.3 1.2 1.2 New Mexico Washington Connecticut 1.1 0.9 Oklahoma California Colorado Vermont 0.6 Nevada Arizona 0.6 Oregon Florida Alaska Hawaii Maine Texas 0.4 0.3 Idaho 0.1 0.1 0 Iowa Ohio Utah Illinois -0.5 Indiana Virginia Kansas Georgia Missouri -0.8 Montana Alabama Michigan Kentucky Maryland -0.8 Wyoming Arkansas Delaware Louisiana Nebraska New York Wisconsin Minnesota Mississippi Tennessee New Jersey Rhode island North Dakota West Virginia Pennsylvania -2 United States -1.3 South Dakota North Carolina -1.5 Massachusetts New Hampshire -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -4 -3.6 -3.7 -3.8 -4.2 -4.5 -6 -5.4 -5.5 -6.6 -6.8 -8 Percentage Differences Between the Young (25 to 34) and Older (45 to 54) Populations with College Degrees, Associate and Higher – 2005 Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

Educational Attainment and Income – Arizona’s Competitive Position $50,000 1980 $43,000 $36,000 AK Personal Income Per Capita CT $29,000 CA NV WY NJ HI MD NY IL CO WA DE MA MN VA US OR PA MI OH WI KS FL NH RI TX IA AZ OK IN MO $22,000 NE MT LA VT UT ID GA ME NM TN NC WV Correlation = 0.64 KY SD ND AL SC AR MS $15,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey

Educational Attainment and Income – Arizona’s Competitive Position $50,000 1990 $43,000 CT NJ $36,000 NY MA Personal Income Per Capita MD AK HI CA DE IL NH VA NV MN RI WA CO PA FL $29,000 US OH MI KS WI WY NE OR VT MO GA IN IA ME NC AZ TX TN OK SD ND SC AL ID MT KY LA UT NM $22,000 WV AR MS Correlation = 0.76 $15,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey

Educational Attainment and Income – Arizona’s Competitive Position $50,000 2000 CT NJ $43,000 MA NY MD CO NH CA MN IL $36,000 WA VA DE NV Personal Income Per Capita AK US PA RI MI FL WY WI HI OH OR GA TX KS VT NE MO IN NC IA ME TN SD $29,000 AZ ND SC OK KY UT ID AL LA MT NM WV AR MS $22,000 Correlation = 0.80 $15,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey

Educational Attainment and Income – Arizona’s Competitive Position $50,000 2005 CT NJ MA $43,000 MD NY NH CO MN VA WY DE CA IL $36,000 NV AK WA RI PA US HI Personal Income Per Capita FL WI NE KS VT SD OR MI TX OH IA ND MO IN NC GA ME TN AZ OK AL $29,000 MT SC ID KY NM UT AR WV MS LA $22,000 Correlation = 0.83 $15,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey

80% 60% 55.0% 45.9% 41.9% 40% 37.4% 20% 0% Current Percentage of Projected Percentage in Projected Percentage in Percentage Needed to Adults 25 to 64 with 2025 with Current Annual 2025 with Current Annual Reach Best-Performing College Degrees (2005) Degree Production Degree Production and Net Countries by 2025 Migration Current Educational Attainment, Educational Attainment in 2025 with Current Degree Production, and the Best Performing Countries in 2025 (United States)

80% 60% 55.0% 41.6% 40% 35.3% 32.7% 20% 0% Current Percentage of Projected Percentage Projected Percentage Percentage Needed to Adults 25 to 64 with in 2025 with Current in 2025 with Current Reach Best-Performing College Degrees Annual Degree Annual Degree Countries by 2025 (2005) Production Production and Net Migration Current Educational Attainment, Educational Attainment in 2025 with Current Degree Production, and the Best Performing Countries in 2025 (Arizona)

Arizona Reaching Top Performance by 2025 (55%) 2,403,606 Number of Individuals to Match Best-Performing Countries (55%) 552,805 Number of Individuals (Age 25-44) Who Already Have Degrees 1,850,801 Additional Degree Production Needed (2005 to 2025) 877,917 Degrees Produced at Current Annual Rate of Production 389,080 Additional Residents with College Degrees from Net Migration 583,803 Additional Degrees Needed 29,190 Additional Degrees Needed per Year (currently produce 45,051 in all Sectors) 101.4% Increase in Annual Associate and Bachelor’s Degree Production Needed (in Public Sector Only) Collective Cost to the State $ 1.34 Billion = Annual Costs of Additional Students at Current $ per Student $ 1.56 Billion = Current State Contribution 86.2% = Percent Increase in Annual State Support Needed (keeping Tuition the same) Average Cost to Students $ 4,520 = Additional Annual Costs to Students at Public Four-Year Institutions (with no additional state Investment) A 78% Increase in Tuition and Fees (currently $5,802) $ 2,685 = Additional Annual Costs to Students at Public Two-Year Institutions (with no additional state Investment) A 187% Increase in Tuition and Fees (currently $1,439)

140,533 131,749 District of Columbia Massachusetts North Dakota Rhode Island New York Nebraska Colorado Iowa Utah The “Gap”—Difference in Annual Degrees Produced and Annual Degrees Needed to Meet Benchmark Accounting for Migration U.S. = 781,304 (a 52.8 Percent Increase in the Public Sector) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS and Population Projections, IPEDS Completions Survey 2004-05

How Can the Arizona Reach International Competitiveness? Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration, and Improved Performance on the Student Pipeline Measures Degrees Produced from 2005 to 2025 with Current 877,917 Rate of Production Additional Degrees from Population Growth 149,246 Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College- 389,080 Educated Residents Reaching Best Performance In High School 30,764 Graduation Rates by 2025 Pipeline Performance is Cumulative Reaching Best Performance In College-Going Rates 107,435 by 2025 Reaching Best Performance In Rates of Degree 174,297 Production Per FTE Student Total Degrees Produced from 2005 to 2025 If All of 1,728,739 the Above Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%) 1,850,801 1,900,000 -300,000 300,000 900,000 1,500,000

Even Best Performance with Traditional College-Aged Students at Each Stage of the Educational Pipeline Will Leave Gaps in More than 30 States Texas 1,333,645 Florida 893,504 California 560,688 New Jersey 320,720 Tennessee 307,956 Nevada 287,565 Louisiana 204,814 Arkansas 186,640 Kentucky 159,765 North Carolina 132,748 Arizona 122,061 Mississippi 115,120 In order to reach international competitiveness by 2025, the U.S. and 32 states can’t close the gap with even best performance with traditional college students. They must rely on the re-entry pipeline – getting older adults back into the education system and on track to attaining college degrees. Ohio 114,375 South Carolina 112,681 Alabama 110,495 West Virginia 74,752 Alaska 65,853 Oklahoma 62,332 Oregon 53,995 Michigan 53,574 New Mexico 47,420 Wisconsin 44,757 Maine 39,436 Idaho 37,706 Montana 34,547 Hawaii 28,659 Georgia 25,326 Wyoming 24,741 Maryland 23,542 Connecticut 10,875 Missouri 8,898 Indiana 2,788 0 300,000 600,000 900,000 1,200,000 1,500,000

White African-American 170,840 200,000 Hispanic/Latino Other 150,000 100,000 75,208 50,000 21,617 6,376 3,238 1,277 0 18 to 24 25 to 44 (50,000) (41,9047) (71,850) (100,000) Projected Population Growth by Age and Race/Ethnicity from 2005 to 2025 Arizona must dramatically increase degree production while serving more minority populations that historically have not succeeded at nearly the rates of Whites. Source: US Census Bureau, Population Projections

Savings If Arizona Reaches Top Performance In Degree Production The reduced costs to Arizona would be $885 Million by improving the efficiency of degree production to the level of the top states. (In $ Millions) Performance: Undergraduate Degrees Awarded Per 100 Full-Time Equivalent Students 30 $3,500 Arizona Top States Additional Costs Needed to Meet Benchmark 24.7 2,895 23.5 Current Budget Costs 22.4 $2,800 and Degree Production 20 1,340 2,010 $2,100 930 $1,400 9.0 10 1,555 1,080 $700 0 $0 Public Two Year Public Four-Year Cost To State Status Cost to State Best Quo Performance

Arizona Reaching International Competitiveness by 2025