Module 4 - Tree seed distribution and tree seed forecasting

1. Module 4 - Tree seed distribution and tree seed forecasting Tony Simons, ICRAF, Nairobi

2. Tree seed distribution and forecasting • Current scenario • Clients • Demand and Supply • Plant Breeder’s Rights (cf. crops) • Control of Tree Seed Sector • Tree type and germplasm origin • Germplasm delivery • Farmer demand for trees • Sources of tree propagules • DFSC examples • Germplasm forecasting • Seed or seedlings

3. 1. Current Scenario • Seed supply (timing and amount) is cited as a constraint to tree planting • Well meaning free seed handouts prevail but are they sustainable • Marketing of tree seed is in its infancy (poor naming) • Seed delivery mechanisms are under-researched for trees • Few methods for germplasm demand forecasting are available • Little private sector involvement in tree seed industry • Uncertainly in changes over time in farmer self-sufficiency of germplasm • Lack of coordination of activities by National Tree Seed Centres, bilateral • projects, NGOs (local and international), private sector, seed dealers • Ambiguous/weak IPR and Plant Breeder’s Rights conditions • Most farmers are not well informed about trees or tree seed • Certification and regulation can both help and hinder seed availability • No single approach will work for the diversity of trees, farmers • and locations

4. Problems of germplasm supply Number Amount germplasm of species needed per species (kg) Popular species 5 100 Second string species 50 10 Species for diversity 500 1

5. 2. Clients • Can be classified according to: • Size of farm (focus on small-scale but perhaps not exclusively) • Resource endowment levels (dimensions of poverty) • Gender • Tree planting culture (established, recent or beginning) • Tree function needs (fruit, timber, fodder) • Farmer surveys reveal: • 75% of tree germplasm comes from own farm/neighbour • perception of low seed and tree information availability • Current trees on farm are a footprint of past and not • necessarily what farmers want

6. Changes over time in the source of germplasm for timber spp. (Peru, 1996) source

7. Changes over time in the source of germplasm for fruit spp. (Peru, 1996) source

8. Form of original germplasm for fruit trees (Peru, 1996) unspec. wildings seedlings grafts seeds

10. 3. Demand and Supply Demand • How much seed is required by farmers? And when? • Farmers may source off-farm or on-farm • May be indirectly expressed by others (e.g. NGOs) • Supply may drive demand (can only plant what is available) • Farmers are a very diverse group with diverse demands • Beware the “Miracle” species Supply • Formal or informal system • Current mechanisms are inadequate • Supply can be by trade, barter, swap, exchange or gift

11. Tree Seed Demand Key issues: • Lack of assessment methodology • Inadequate involvement of farmers • Uncertain economics of tree seed provision • Inappropriate policies • Lack of technical information • Poor extension knowledge/experience

12. Tree Seed Supply Key issues: • Seed production areas/trees lacking • Markets poorly functioning/understood • Inadequate methods for handling and use of seed • Problems with seed quality • Mismatch of scale • Organisational difficulties

13. Demand and Supply of Tree Seed Location of seed trees Wild stands Plantations Farms Station trials Central Seed orchards Demand Supply Supplier/ Collector Nurseries NGOs Farmers & Assoc. Seed Dealers NTSCs NARIs Donor Projects Users of seed Seed Producers Farmers Nursery Operators Plantations Research Trials/SSO Conservation

14. 4. Plant Breeder’s Rights PBR are granted by a State to plant breeders to exclude others from commercialising varieties they have developed. They only operate within a state’s boundary and generally have a minimum duration of 15-20 years. PBR protection is based on the assumption that the prospect of returns on investment will stimulate breeders to develop varieties. Variety – must be distinct, uniform and stable

15. UPOV (Union for Protection of New Varieties of Plants) • Intergovernmental Convention set up in 1961 • To date 47 countries have enacted legislation • Only 11 are developing tropical countries • Argentina (1994) Kenya (1999) China (1999) • Bolivia (1999) South Africa (1977) • Brazil (1999) • Colombia (1996) • Ecuador (1997) • Mexico (1997) • Panama (1999) • Paraguay (1997) (http://www.upov.org/eng/index.htm)

16. Type of seed For annual crops the use of improved or certified seed is a good indirect indicator of the type of agriculture. Commercial agriculture generally uses improved seed, either bought or saved, while subsistence agriculture relies mostly on landraces and seed obtained through informal channels. When there is a well developed seed industry, and farmers are well informed, seed marketing starts to be deregulated, and certification becomes less important. Whilst some countries have well developed tree seed centres, the tree seed industry is not well developed. For crops the initiation of the seed industry has been directly linked to modern plant breeding.

17. Evolution of crop seed industry Initiation of modern plant breeding Initiation of seed production by public sector Initiation of private seed industry Creation of seed certification Arrival of multinationals Public sector involvement Private sector involvement

18. Evolution of tree seed industry - plantation species - • Initiation of modern plant breeding • (since 1950s, 40 taxa, 1-4th generation) • Initiation of seed production by public sector • (more seed collection than production, FAO, bilateral donors, government) • Initiation of private seed industry • (just beginning, SMURFIT, Costa Rica, cooperatives - CAMCORE) • Creation of seed certification • (only OECD scheme, incipient legislation in developing countries) • Arrival of multinationals • (Shell Forestry dabbled in 1980s, tax-break biotech companies in SE Asia) for agroforestry species, bilaterals and private seed dealers operate

19. Annual crops compared to trees • Crop seed systems (formal and informal) have been in place • for a long time • Crop seeds are consumed by humans (saved seed) • Trees are perennial • Trees have a higher multiplication potential • (annually and generationally) • Legislation on tree seed lower priority

20. 5. Control of tree seed sector • In 1992, a IUFRO/GTZ tree seed workshop recommended • tropical countries should: • Pass new national tree seed laws (sensu OECD) • Set up national designated authority • License all tree seed producers/collectors • Construct seed source inventory, use to give approval • Certify all tree seed (identity, origin, disease) • Delineate of eco-zones for all tree species • Require mandatory seed testing Are these feasible, are they a priority for agroforestry trees?

21. OECD Scheme for control of forest reproductive material in international trade • First meeting on the subject in 1966 in Paris • Scheme established in 1974 • Aim is to encourage production and use of tree seed that • ensures their trueness to name • Publication of a National List of Approved Basic Material is a • pre-requisite to implementation of the Scheme • Seed zones (regions of provenance) have to be established • within a country and a detailed seed stand identification data • sheet prepared • Four categories of reproductive material • - “source-identified seed stands” (natural or artificial) • - “selected category” for phenotypic superiority • - “untested seed orchards” • - “tested category” (seed stands, orchards and clones) Is the OECD scheme realistic for the numerous agroforestry species? - interestingly Rwanda applied in 1992 to join the scheme

22. Eucalyptus Case Study – what prospects for other species? • First seed exported 1770s, steady increase since • 30,000 kg exported each year from Australia • Reliable figures on amount of seed exported are hard to obtain as • suppliers are reluctant to provide information on their markets • One third of all plantation trees established is a eucalypt • Presence of Australian Tree Seed Centre – centre of excellence • Australia supports OECD certification scheme but does enforce it • as it is thought of as a small industry and the cost of enforcement • would be out of proportion of its value • Few government controls, no self-regulation so it’s “buyer beware” • Most seed dealers are professional, but unscrupulous ones also

23. 6. Tree type and germplasm origin  - infrequently  - normally  - very common

24. Emphasis of various stakeholders on quantity and quality of tree germplasm Quality Quantity ARIs IARCs Bilateral project NARS NGOs CBOs Farmers Seed dealers

25. 7. Germplasm Delivery • Distribution • - macro-delivery to NARS, NGOs, CBOs • Dissemination • - directly to farmers, nurseries, farmer groups • Diffusion • - farmer to farmer exchange, expansion

26. 8. Farmer demand for trees: • Tree taxaFamily (e.g. Fabaceae) • Genera (e.g. Acacia) • Species (e.g. Calliandra calothyrsus) • Provenance (Retalhuleu – Gliricidia sepium) • Landrace (Mt Kenya – Vitex keniensis) • Variety (K8 – Leucaena leucocephala) • Clone (Tommy Atkins – Mango) • Tree functionFruit • Timber • Medicine • Fodder • Fencing • Fallow • Shade/support Incentivesfertiliser, tree planting subsidy, livestock, food for work Linked benefitsaccess toNARS/NGOs, chief, officials; human interest

27. 9. Sources and types of tree propagule for farmers  - occasionally  - regularly  - most usually

28. DFSC examples • No country in Central America, Africa or Asia has during the past 15 years established a satisfactory tree seed procurement system, - with or without donor support! • The technical part is ‘easy’, - not the limiting factor. • The organisational, political, market part is difficult. • No model works every where. Some models work in some parts of some countries. • Factors: No. of seed users, size of demand, no. of spp. in demand, ecological variation, size of country, infrastructure, national capacity (financial, adm.). • Examples from Tanzania, Nepal and Indonesia.

29. Nepal: Tree Improvement and Silvicultural Component Donor support for more than 30 years (Australia, UK and Denmark). Centralised to semi-centralised?? Meets approx. 10% of the national demand. Quality of seed, - probably mixed. Price OK. Sell only in big quantities (from TISC), and only to users close to the 3 seed centres. Seed co-operatives: Impact in small local areas. Model might be good, but total impact is small. Seed in small bags: Under test at present.

30. Tanzania: National Tree Seed Programme. Danida support for more than 15 years. Centralised or decentralised?? Meets less than 5% of the national demand. Seed of OK quality but expensive. Sell only in big quantities. Provide seed only to users close to the three seed centres. DFSC provided a Mercedes, when there was a need for a Morris Minor!!

31. Indonesia: Indonesia Tree Seed Project. Nordic and Danida support for 12 years. Only capacity building through training, extension, information and advisory services, - no direct seed production. Seed production by seed dealers and big private companies. Impact?? If yes, on the country’s own conditions. Has put tree seed on the government’s agenda, - a lot more govt inputs to the tree seed sector (10 times up), - good or bad?? Information, extension etc. lead to demand for quality seed (when users are ‘ready’), which leads to the production of quality seed. Quality seed to farmers through NGO’s as part of extension (collab. with ICRAF, Bogor).

32. What can fail a seed distribution system? • Lack of preparedness-poor seed procurement strategies • Poor infrastructure –inadequate means of communication • Distances involved – if excessive • (Temporary) storage facilities

33. What can fail a seed distribution system? ( cont.) • Inappropriate packaging materials • Type of seed being distributed • Mode and Language of instructions on seed use/treatments • Timing of the event(s)- should not conflict with other farmers’ activities that may deemed to be more important e. g., harvesting

34. DFSC Conclusions: Difficult to provide real quality seed, when users do not attach a value to seed. What to do? Tree seed should in general be part of much ‘wider’ programmes (land rehabilitation, forest management and establishment, rural development, etc.). Then tree seed will find its right ‘level’ and it will be easier to sell to donors, - maybe. Tree seed procurement systems have to be ‘tailor made’ and one system works only for one part of the demand (companies, donors, farmers, etc.) or in one geographical area (co-operatives, NGOs). More emphasis on training, extension, information (capacity building), - less on setting up ‘systems’ (DFSC/ISAAC). Realise that development takes time, - in Denmark it took 20 years to establish a well functioning tree seed procurement system (1946-66).

35. 11. Germplasm Forecasting Currently no methods available Important as shortage of seed is often cited as a problem Often dealing with a tree rich but species poor landscape so getting germplasm of new species or low species of low abundance is a problem Amounts needed/forecast will be affected by - germination and survival rates - novelty and uniqueness of species - adoption/expansion rates - ability/time when farmers can be self-sufficient - degree of extension efforts

36. Seed needs for plantation tree species

37. Number of trees required what % propagules will come from farmer’s fields ? Time

38. Clonal fruit trees Orthodox species of average generation interval Fallow species of short generation e.g. Tephrosia vogelii Hybrid timber tree Farmer self-sufficiency in germplasm will happen at varying times for different trees

39. 12. Seeds or Seedlings

40. Community Nursery Community Nursery Central Nursery Nursery Association Community Nursery Nursery Association Established small-scale nurseries Novice small-scale nurseries

41. Who are the Tree Extension Officers of the future? Tree nursery operators

42. Elements of a tree seed system Seed sourcing Farmer groups Species selection Govt institutions farmers ICRAF ICRAF short term, long term? nurseries NGO’s CBO’s Extension providers Seed quality Govt Users Farmers NGO’s, CBO’s Private sector? Seed multiplication nurseries Farmers CBOs Seed producers NGOs What institutional framework? Extension providers Seed marketing Tree nursery networks Extension providers NTSCs CBOs Seed dealers NGOs How information flow?